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SNOWPLOUGH

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Posts posted by SNOWPLOUGH

    Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by SNOWPLOUGH

    A sensible call from METO again with largely cold / mild oscillations & most precipitation to the NW indicating a zonal NW type flow neither desperately cold nor mild as such. Persisting right into mid February seems a good call.

    How can you know its a good call a month in advance may I ask?Interesting times at the moment with more and more runs showing height rises to our north, this is bound to affect our weather pattern in some way- Get the general pattern first- Then the details after. Hopefully we see the 12z runs continue the theme and bring forward the height rises. The models havent got a grasp on the final pattern yet and wont for some time yet. The important thing is these runs keep appearing and gradually get closer- as are the Northern Hemisphere anomaly charts that J.Holmes posts here. They are pretty important to have in agreement from what we have seen before.Dan
    • Like 4

    Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Anyone fancy pointing out the Positive differences of ECM @ 72 V GFS 72

     

    ECM

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010812/ECH1-72.GIF

     

    GFS

    http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014010812/gfsnh-0-72.png?12

     

    Not noticeable unless you look at both.

     

    Answers on a postcard!

     

     

    Higher heights over svalbard, low in atlantic is also slightly further south and west. The whole pattern seems very slightly further west.

     

     

     

     

    Dan 

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by SNOWPLOUGH

    UKMO is very good evolution too. Possibly better. It's actually time wise similar to the GEM. The next chart on the UKMO (168) would almost certainly be east or north easterly with generous low heights in the continent.Also look at the cold source on UKMO east of Scandinavia. It gets no better than that any time of year.

    Yes thats very true- straight source from siberia, the perfect source considering the mild continent at present too. I also like the lack of depth to that low to our south on the +144 UKMO chart, perfect for sliding under the block.This has developed at a pace I dont think ive seen before, hopefully we can continue with the Upgrades and keep all the models on board.Edit : There is also a lovely Northern Italian low on that UKMO chart!Dan
    • Like 5

    Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by SNOWPLOUGH

    GEM 00z

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&carte=0&mode=0&archive=0

    UKMO - 144

    Posted Image

    Both excellent for different reasons.

    That GEM run is fantastic! Almost reverse zonality with a band of high pressure to the north and lows to our south driving easterlies out into the atlantic... and this is within the next 10 days, very interesting.

    Dan

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussion 13/11/13 >

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by SNOWPLOUGH

    weather guy is that before height collapse though!

    if the models don't show enough low heights to the south it could easy recede south southeast allowing us to be on the wrong side of the cold well cooler air.

     

     

     

    My interpretation of the UKMO is that on the +144hrs chart this is where the lows in the western Atlantic are heading> The high is unlikely to sink after this.. doesent even really matter when we have such disagreement at +120hrs anyway... 

    post-7656-0-89155100-1384537790_thumb.gi

    Winter Model Discussion - 12/01/13 06z Onwards

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Europe in the freezer! Love how we share those tasty blues with the mainland. Look how mild Ireland is though.

    13011700_1300.gif

    Not too much difference between the majority of the UK and Ireland there- northern England/Scotland looks a fair bit colder but parts of NI are colder than SE England.

    I really Hope the UKMO has it right this morning with a beautiful under cutting low and pressure build to our north.

    Dan :)

    Winter Model Discussion 18Z 8/1/13. The hunt for cold (is closer).

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    At 150 that low south of Greenland is winding back in on itself and just heading NW and pumping up WAA ahead of it. Just wait and see.

    Best guess is pressure rise just east of north with retrogression later on.

    I would agree with this- its all FI anyway and we go through a very dodgy patch to get there but I think pressure will rise just to the north/north east of scotland on this run.

    Dan :)

    Model Output Discussion - 28th November

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by phil n.warks.
    deleted ot comments

    I will remain optimistic as long as the teleconnections are looking good and as long as GP,Chiono,JH,NS and Steve murr etc can see potential cold spells develoing...

    My prediction is for colder runs to start showing again before this time tomorrow, would be in keeping with the model output of late.

    Dan smile.png

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