Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

Day10

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    37

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Posts posted by Day10

    Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by bluekipper

    1 hour ago, ArHu3 said:

    Erring on the side of climatology seems like a wise thing to do for a professional forecaster and that climatology of course is mild

    Or he maybe he's Darren Bett's love child?? (Only joking)

    Merry Christmas, thanks to everyone who spends the time writing some really interesting and informative posts. 

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion - the beast arrives

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    There are no faxes issued post T84 derived from the 00z runs 

    Soz,

    Just asked our 'in house' forecaster as to what she thought of the GFS and its output..

    This is her response:

    'It’s tricky regarding the uncertainty, there are some signs that the GM is perhaps the outlier to the majority of other solutions at the minute for later in the week, hence some of the uncertainty! The GM wants to fragment the ppn moving NE across SE England through Friday and it’s this which is slightly at odds with other output so at the minute the chief has been making modifications to GM output, but like I said still a few days out.'

     

    Anyway, back to the regionals...

     

     

     

    • Thanks 4

    Storm Doris - Atlantic Storm 4

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    26 minutes ago, Light Without Heat said:

    2h30m after starting the descent from FL400 flight EK17 to Manchester finally has touched down at Gatwick - amazing amount of extra fuel on that baby.

    On our A320's we say a tonne of fuel per half hour of holding. Not much fuel used in the descent (N1's back at idle), starts to drink it when in the hold. A fairly heavy aircraft won't be thrown around like an empty A320, which can sometimes feel like flying a crisp packet on a windy day! 

    • Like 2

    SE England and EA Regional Weather Discussion

    in Regional

    Posted

    19 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

    What sort of preparations do the airports make in these situations?

    I won't de-rail the thread too much! 

    Numerous provisions:

    From a Pilot perspective, you have HOT ( holdover times ) with regards de icing and then anti icing . Clean wing concept. You then have inevitable delays, therefore fuel and delays at destination if affected. 

    Low vis can lead to increase seperation between a/c, also with a snow/slush/ice runway landing distances increase. Wind orientation and strength can put the a/c out of limits.. 

    The list is endless.. 

    • Like 1

    SE England and EA Regional Weather Discussion

    in Regional

    Posted

    Just in from our lovely met person at work...

    This is the current assessment but, with the uncertainty surrounding this event, the most likely outcome may change, so regular updates will be issued.

     

    There is low confidence of a high impact event occurring over the S of the UK as a low pressure system tracks E across the country.  This is due to affect the London area between 1500-2100Z with Bristol also likely to be affected by sleet/wet snow from 12Z.

     

    These values are for the SE in general and may vary slightly between individual airports (LGW, LTN, STN, SEN).

     

    There is a 80-90% chance of heavy rain turning to wet snow and a 60% chance of 0-2cm accumulations of wet snow.

     

    Should the low pressure deepen further there is a 40% of 2-5cm accumulations with an added risk of strong winds with variable wind directions (gusting 35-45KT).  This may lead to blizzard conditions, particularly at LGW, and an increased risk of snow accumulations at N London airports.    The least likely scenario (10-20%) is for 5-10cm accumulations with localized 45+KT gusts.

     

    There is a risk of BHX being at risk, but the position of the northern edge of the front is uncertain.

     

    After the weather system clears, whether the precipitation falls as rain or snow, the temperature will drop sharply to give a widespread ice risk overnight and into Friday.

     

    These values may change in the run up to the event so any public weather enquiries are best directed to the Met Office Severe weather warning page which is updated regularly: www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings

     

    • Like 3

    Southeast England and East Anglia - Weather Chat

    in Regional

    Posted

    The front is now beginning to push in-

     

    Watch out for the dewpoints to start dropping from the SE later in the eve,

     

    There is a LOT of of PPN out in the channel arcing NNE ( NNN - even NNW)

     

    Expect rises in surface temps but as long as the dewpoints drop then the snow will come & then drop the surface temps...

     

    Always optimistic as ever...

     

    Dont panic mr mannering.

     

    S

    Where you putting the sweet spot Steve?

    Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    It tends to get used more across the other side of the pond Nick, seen it a lot in past NOAA outputs and I would definately describe it as a meteorological term. Anyway that aside, if the latest GFS is to be believed you could well be 'phasing' into shorts and t-shirts down there come next week...Posted Image Pyrennean snow cover must be starting to suffer by now?

    Pyrénées, enroute BCN 30/12/13. Taken from the office windowpost-7736-0-40056800-1388752762_thumb.jp
    • Like 7
×
×
  • Create New...