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benb

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    Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Light snow here- biggish flakes blowing around in the wind.

    Temps +0.2c

    The sky looks wonderfully grey and snowy. I Imagine the snowwill pick up during the afternoon as the moister air arrives from the E/SE.

    You can see how moist air is a key factor here from the radar- see how the precipitation becomes heavier after it has left the land and is over the Bristol Channel.

    Although the wind is predominately NE, the precipitation is developing/moving from the SE towards the NW. This bodes well for southern coastal areas later.

    Re Tues/Wed's 'Blizzard'- still large variations in the models. The worst is GFS, which brings the mild air quickly over the majority of Wales. A short spell of snow followed by rain (away from v.high ground in the north- if it happens that way! I hope it's wrong- but GFS is certainly sticking to its guns atm.

    post-7763-12631150696342_thumb.png

    General Model Output Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I agree entirely....I really think the amount of snow to fall from tomorrow afternoon into Monday has been underestimated. The GFS precipitation charts show moderate snow, for upto 24 hours in some parts (Midlands and Northern England look to be the favoured spots). This has been shown on the last few GFS runs....

    Could well be Lakes Boy,

    We're entering a situation the models haven't had to deal with 'live' before. A lot of the data from previous events has been fed in retrospectivley.

    It's certainly going to be an interesting progression.

    This is why we watch the models.

    Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    GFS Op run 06Hz

    GFS bring the low in close to the south of the UK, but with winds from the SSE these would be cold at the surface, but warmer aloft coming from the Atlantic, these are closer to southerly than Easterly.

    This is NOT a good breakdown, while certainly Mid and North Wales, could do OK, Only the highest ground we see snow in South Wales, think back to a repeat performance to the event before Christmas.

    UKMO

    A slighlty slower breakdown compared to the GFS, and colder uppers than compared to the GFS.

    It is difficult to tell likely snow/rain limit, with limited info past t+72, but more snow would be likely if this run came off.

    ECM

    The ECM is similar up to say Tuesday, but then undercuts the high Pressure keeping us on the cold side of the low. This is PERFECT and a IMO a fully snow event.

    [

    Great summary.

    Going to be ace model watching over the weekend.

    Only one thing is certain: what will be, will be...

    General Model Output Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Chaos please. And if those up North are fed up with it, I'll willingly take it on drinks.gif

    The track of this low is going to chop and change all over the place until about T+6. It has the air of a classic Atlantic attack though. Send in the 'front line' low to weaken us, then the 'cavalry' low to finish off us BUT... what a battle it could be!

    If the last snow dumping was a forecasters nighmare, I don't know what this scenario is. The METO will be wary about playing it down as there is the potential of a massive dumping from this system in the South of England. Even on the coast, with the right conditions, this could be snow and a LOT of it. There reamins the possibility that a warm front, which will probably become occluded will be drawing up much milder and very moist air from the Biscay. When this interacts with the cold air, expect fireworks.

    Great post!

    I think that sums up the spirit that many of us watch the models for.

    The difference this time round is that the dream scenario isn't hundreds of hours away and never likely to happen.

    Of course, it could be rain, not snow, across the South. But that's what's so engrossing about this situation.

    Having studied all the avaliable data: I think it's 50/50!

    Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by benb

    Hi Guys,

    Here we go - snow anticipated Sunday onwards? There seems to be appearing a few cracks in this now with it only expected to be light. Some places might get lucky with some 'moderate' amounts, 5-10cm. This will blow around and drift in the brisk wind. This WILL cause problems.

    It seems there are possibilities that a breakdown is on the way, some say as early as Tuesday, some inevitably saying Wednesday/Thursday. I think this year is different, and this block will fight back and cause heavy snow as this happens - hopefully Wales will be the 'successful' battleground.

    There will also soon be 'doom and gloom' posts from 'mildies' trying to wind other people up - they have been unable to do this the last 2 weeks hiding in their 'warm' hovels! Alas, they will apear - guys don't bite - I am convinced we will keep hold of this cold - and if it does go it will only be brief before a reload occurs mid month as is being predicted by the GFS. I know some of the GFS has been poor, but not all the time. Lets hope for upgrades in the charts later/tomorrow and we can keep smiling!

    JK

    Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    The trend for a breakdown of the block has had increasing support during the runs in the last 24hrs.

    Maybe the models are being over progressive, but the angle the low comes in means our cold air will eroded away by increasingly warm SEasterlies, sourced in the mild Atlantic.

    I'm hoping for the blizzard of the century but, away from high ground inland, next week looks like a slow decay from snow to rain for most, especially in the south.

    On the bright side, it's still five days away and the synoptics maybe telling a different story by then.

    Oh, and there's still the excellent, and increasing, prospect of a very wintry 24/36 hrs during Sun/Mon to enjoy!

    Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by benb

    Well, real knife edge stuff this afternoon from the models.

    IMO...

    Sun/Mon looks pretty much confirmed as 24+ hours of intermitant light to moderate snow, depending on troughs/ fronts etc. I think we'll all get a couple of cms. 'Hot spots' will be high ground in the east that will pick up more of the precipitation being blown in from England. Generally, the south of the country will fare better than the north due to lower pressure here.

    Tuesday onwards looks fascinating- what will the low developing in the SW approaches do? Over the last 24 hours, the models have had this (a) making serious inroads into the block and introducing milder air across wales, B stalling several hunded miles to our sw leaving us in a continued cold E/SEasterly and © making some progress towards us, creating the classic battleground scenario before sliding of SE.

    Option C is the one that's going to lead to the most snow and prolong our cold spell for even longer- watch out for it on the charts over the next few days!

    Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by benb

    Two interesting developments from GFS 0z overnight for Wales:

    1) More precipitation for Sunday/ Monday

    2) The low is being progged to make serious inroads into the block, indroducing milder air by end of Weds. Snow to rain for many.

    Only one run, and perhaps over-progressive, but certainly interesting to see if this trend is developed by other models.

    Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Sorry Ben - the easterly continues right through till thursday night - then the gfs brings in the low from the atlantic - mind you outside of the reliable timeframe yet - so not really worth worrying about - we have a potential 5 days of very cold easterly winds bringing in moderate pretty much constant snow to south and mid wales - piling up into drifts! - wow it'll be something to see - oh and piling up on top of what we have already!

    Agreed! Please see post 156.

    Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by benb

    Into thursday and the low is trying to come in but the block is holding and yet more snow from the easterly - day 5 of the siberian experience!

    it's not even getting in - that's snow still from the easterly

    not dodgy 850's - easterly windchill will keep everything just snowy!

    I'm not saying the mild's winning- what I'm saying is this will be the first real test of the block.

    IMO 850s higher than -5 are dodgy!

    Though I accept this is an exceptional winter, so I look forward to next week to see what's going to happen.

    Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I think by the end of this cold spell especially if ECM comes off which is more likely than GFS this could end up the most snowfall since 1963 and the most I will of ever seen now with 13inches.

    Only another 5inches to equal the January 1982 record which was only a 10day cold spell aswell,but with record low temps.

    We have all this to come next.

    http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/brack0.gif

    http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/brack1.gif

    http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/brack2.gif

    And bitterly stronger east winds. cold.gifcold.gifcold.gifbiggrin.gif

    There's even a trough for us on Saturday on the second of those charts!

    Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    One thing at a time, eh!

    I'm not going to be worrying about the breakdown until after the weekend/Monday.

    All the models have highlighted those as potentially snowy days right across Wales for some time now.

    And as we know from events this week- anything can happen and probably will.

    One thing I will say about any potential breakdown is that, personally, I'd want go out with a bang!

    Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    just stunning

    used the thrid as a background on my desktop [thats if it is ok with you]

    make that no 5

    You're welcome!

    My take on Sun/Mon is pretty positive- there's bound to be a load of troughs/ fronts etc embedded in that flow, so it's going to be a case of watching these things develop -live- on the radar (always a great way to watch the weather). After that, I'm a little concerned about increasing marginality. I've no doubt that inland, especially with altitude, it'll be a full on snow event. However, where I am- if there's a chance it'll sleet/rain, it probably will! Hope I'm wrong...

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