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SnowStorm(Jamie)

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Posts posted by SnowStorm(Jamie)

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    in Wales / Cymru weather discussion

    Posted

    Not much change in my eyes to the outlook Thursday/Friday's front mostly light and patchy, the ICON may have made more of it last night but the trend is generally lighter stuff with heavier bursts over Pembrokeshire.

    Saturday looks the most promising as per what ECM/UKV/ICON shows but again very uncertain in relation to rain/snow distribution. 

    Curious if the Met Office will issue any advance warnings today

    • Like 1

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    in Wales / Cymru weather discussion

    Posted · Edited by SnowStorm(Jamie)

    14 minutes ago, Marcus_surfer said:

    To be honest speaking about my location in Swansea easterly winds are not a good direction here for snow. We do alot better with northwestern cold winds or northern. We get the moisture off the Irish sea and this has created streamers on occasion with about 6-8inches in the early and late 2000s.

    Easterlys are normally just dry , mostly cloudy (cold and windy) with the odd flurries (which they have been for the past few days)

    They have delivered snow in the past from sliders but these have been touch and go and very marginal and quite rare to deliver proper accumulation 

    I would love to see the snowstorms like we had in the 70s and 80s but unfortunately I'm 30 and never experienced anything like that yet.

    Yep never been a big fan of easterly's here, it seems like its been a long time since we had a decent cold shot from the north west, especially this time of year it normally delivers. 2009 was probably one of the better easterly's for our location but that was mainly due to an area of low pressure moving north.

    I think Thurs/Friday's front is going to struggle to make it any further than Pembrokeshire, Saturday is the next potential shot for something more widespread but introduces more marginal conditions towards SW parts.

     

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    in Wales / Cymru weather discussion

    Posted · Edited by SnowStorm(Jamie)

    52 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

    Anyone think we'll actually see any snow or is it wishful thinking.

    Forgot to mention there was a tiny dusting of snow this morning, bit more of a noticeable dusting over Caerphilly mountain.

    See snow more than likely but mainly light, seeing anything more significant starting to look less likely, obviously the ICON 12z would be best case. Unsure what UKV shows this evening.

     

    • Like 1

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    in Wales / Cymru weather discussion

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, Cymro said:

    Can we all agree one thing? For the sake of sanity? Automated weather app forecasts are about as useful as Gareth Davies’ kick last minutes of yesterday’s game against ireland. Don’t worry about them they are hopeless! 

    Indeed, Id still be cautious of any front making it into Wales at this stage, the ECM and UKV do look promising at the moment. The apps chop and change like no tomorrow as they are fed new data. Liam Dutton did a good write up on his Facebook page with regards to this cold spell and he mentioned the weather apps.

    Just recently had a few tiny flakes here.

     

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    in Wales / Cymru weather discussion

    Posted

    27 minutes ago, snowy36 said:

    I was just thinking that when i was writing that , we had a red warning but it turned out just a normal amount. 

    Same here in 2018, Amber warning over Swansea but got very little snow but to be fair i think the warning in this neck of the woods was mainly for wind rather than snow.

    The weather models often struggle with these breakdown situations and often the GFS is to quick to bring in systems off the Atlantic. If anything id say in the last few any breakdown has been delayed and high pressure is holding more than initially thought.

     

     

    • Like 2

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    in Wales / Cymru weather discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

    What's going on in the SE, people reporting rain even though they've had an amber warning. Nothing worse than that happening.

    How's it looking for Wales the end of the week?

    The colder air was delayed by a few hours, but is now starting to feed in, wouldnt be suprised to see a few lucky locations there with over a foot of snow.

    End of this week is still very much up in the air, its likely the atlantic will try and push in but uncertainty around how far any frontal systems will get.

     

     

    • Thanks 1

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    in Wales / Cymru weather discussion

    Posted

    Had some sleet here today, around about 150m there was some proper snowflakes, making it the 3rd weekend in a row that it has snowed here. This winter for my own location so far has comfortably exceeded previous winters since about 2010.

    The ECM for mid week onwards shows what happens when the energy from the atlantic goes over the block rather than attempting to go under it, high sinks into Europe and we end up with a cold SE flow but largely dry. 

     

     

    • Like 1

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    in Wales / Cymru weather discussion

    Posted · Edited by SnowStorm(Jamie)

    Just after mid week and you can start to see the possible battleground situation taking form. Heights building over Spain/France but you can still see the high over Scandi on the GFS:

    1110427369_h500slp(1).thumb.png.071f857becd1517b1d6e2536569cc120.png

    Ive just looked at the GEM and to my eye it keeps the high over Scandinavia stronger and further west - so the block holding out against the Atlantic more so than the GFS.

     

     

    • Like 3

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    in Wales / Cymru weather discussion

    Posted

    5 hours ago, Cymro said:

    As in a week this Sunday? I've seen the ECM charts they look tasty but will absolutely change before then so try to manage expectations. 

    It seems to me that there will be snow but perhaps not the battleground frontal snow we want due to the colder air being further south. I wouldn't bank on them even reaching Wales in the next 10 days. 

    But I'm happy with dry and cold for now and hope I'm wrong about the snow but past experience has taught me not to get on the smowmaggedon express those in the East of England are currently riding, Wales rarely does well on a whole from a convective easterly, 

    Indeed for most of Wales it looks to be dry and cold with the possibility of snow showers across eastern parts of Wales, maybe something more organised as we go into Sunday but again for those west of high ground I wouldnt expect much.

    The ECM does show the best case situation if you want snow, but In the past ive put much hope in the possibility of a snowy breakdown only for it to go wrong, for that much depends on how lows make their way into the UK. At the moment it looks like the jet will stay to our south so there's the possiblity of 'slider' lows, I would urge people not to pay much attention to snow charts for next week they will change drastically from run to run.

    • Like 1

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    in Wales / Cymru weather discussion

    Posted · Edited by SnowStorm(Jamie)

    59 minutes ago, blackrose73 said:

    Someone from the southeast said earlier "The joys of trying to get snowflake in the UK!". Erm, excuse me but many of us have had some snow in the UK, even today in some areas! Unbelievably irritating southeast bias! Because of course there's nothing to the UK beyond London and the Home counties! eh!

    I havent been in the model thread for years and dont intend too because of things like that, shame really because there is allot to be learned from some very knowledgeable people on here. If its not a Kent clipper or a Thames streamer then it dont count. 

    On another note, some very nice looking snowfall charts for eastern parts of N England and Scotland.

     

    • Like 6

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    in Wales / Cymru weather discussion

    Posted · Edited by SnowStorm(Jamie)

    31 minutes ago, bradymk said:

    Yes potentially for accumulations. If the front comes in as per ECM though, I think we’ll both see falling snow at least tomorrow. Light mainly. Let’s hope it’s right and harmonie. Arome in same camp.

    Not expecting any accumulation in Cardiff.

    I agree, seems like fairly light precipitation with sleet/snow turning gradually to rain on low ground as the day progresses. Thats going by the ECM at least.  Might be why the Met Office have not issued a snow warning for tomorrow because while there may be snow falling its unlikely to accumilate away from hills.

    • Like 3

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    in Wales / Cymru weather discussion

    Posted · Edited by SnowStorm(Jamie)

    Im quite suprised theres no snow warning from the Met Office tomorrow for anywhere in Wales, given what the GFS and ECM are currently showing. Usually in such circumstances they put a warning out but in their warning matrix they select "Unlikely"......I trust they must be fairly confident that the front will not make it this far north.

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