SnowStorm(Jamie)
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Posts posted by SnowStorm(Jamie)
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1 hour ago, Cymro said:
Warning revised substantially south, we are just out of it here by a bout a mile but I suspect it will miss Wales all together at this rate!
Thats my thinking also, general trend has been further south, if you also look at the warning matrix for tomorrow its in the "unlikely" category. Latest AROME keeps it just off the coast of south Wales.
The precipitation currently sinking slowly southwards should start to weaken with some snow possible over high ground.
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To me there looks to be a southward shift in tomorrows system compared to what was shown yesterday, it may very well end up in the channel. Will be interesting to see what the Met Office updated warnings show this morning.
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Good luck to everyone tonight hoping to see a bit of snow, far from a perfect setup but high res models showing snow falling over North, Mid and upland parts of south wales.
Last time I had a covering of snow here in Swansea was 2013 and i dont see that changing tonight. Normally a trip up the mountain would be in order but it looks like ill have to settle on looking out the window towards the Brecon Beacons
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Tomorrow into Firday will be very interesting, especially for those in E/SE Wales. Heavy snow driffting about with strong winds, so it wont take much accumulation to be blown about and cause problems, especially if its still the drier type of snow.
Below are from the Netwx-SR model:
Lighter snow generally to the West of Bridgend, but still most areas should see some.
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I think a large part of there being less precipitation in the West (Swansea) Thu/Fri is based on the strong easterly surface flow training precipitation over upland areas of S & E Wales. Not much change since yersterday - Increasing likelyhood of the event happening and now an Amber warning issued by the Met Office.
Remember small adjustments in the positioning of the low will result in differences in precipitation distribution.....That being said It would not suprise me if a Red warning is issued for parts of E/SE Wales due to wind gusts/heavy snow (Blizzard conditions) - We will see!
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Tomorrow looks interesting for snow in parts of Wales as more organised precipitation moves in off the North Sea heading SW:
Its very cold at both surface and upper levels of the atmosphere so what falls out of the sky will be snow! Temperatures really struggling to get above freezing even in the far South West....very impressive to be honest:
Thursday into Friday has the potential to be a very disruptive event over parts of Wales *IF* it happens. This will chop and change over the coming days and it may be the case that the low doesnt come as far north as it encounters the cold pool of air established over the UK, if anything it is slightly further south today...over the years ive seen such things trend so far south they end up in France. One to monitor over the next few days!
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I think Cardiff will do ok during the early hours of Friday morning, catching more showers that feed in from the NW.
Not expecting much here in Swansea: Cold, mainly dry with the chance of the odd snow shower.
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Latest snow graphic from the Met Office:
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Looking at the latest output from Euro 4/Meto Warnings pretty much anywhere in Wales could see a covering if you catch a few snow showers, 10-20cm for certain spots where streamers set up across NW Wales heading South East into parts of Mid/South East Wales:
Euro 4 precipitation:
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2 minutes ago, Marcus_surfer said:
I hope so, how would this very cold air assist shower development? Sort of like lake effect snow?
Yes pretty much the same, cold air flowing over warmer sea. Latest Euro 4 doesn't show much precipitation over SW Wales or SW England now looking, streamer possibly setting up over NW Wales pushing south east. Anywhere pretty much could see a snow shower with air that cold (dew points also below 0c).
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Have to admit the upper air temperature profiles are quite impressive. Euro 4 shows upper temps of -9 to -10c moving across the Irish sea, such cold air going over the Irish sea is likely to assist shower development.
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Local hills here around 200m have a covering of snow this morning. Overnight snow showers here turned more to sleet/rain as it appears the flow off the Irish sea moderated dew points/temperatures.
That being said E/SE parts of the UK have done quite well out of this with some heavy snow yesterday and again this morning.
There hasn't been a covering of snow here since 2013, even the winters of 2007/2008 give a dusting at one point.
Isolated wintry showers possible again tonight with the risk of Ice.
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Already had 2 light snow showers here in Swansea, as always showers will be hit and miss.
The flow is current WNW as shown here on the Euro 4:
It should start to veer to a NW/NNW flow by midnight:
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Euro 4 and NetWx-SR 12z data pretty similar with the shower distribution tonight and into the early hours:
Worth keeping an eye on the radar later to see if snow showers start to band together into streamers, this can result in a longer period of snow of course.
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Latest AROME 12z data suggests wintry showers pushing further south east across Wales, will be interesting to see if the EURO 4 does the same thing:
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Snow potential graphic from the Met Office:
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Wont be long before cold air starts cutting into this system during the afternoon allowing it to turn more wintry for some.
Noticed this little feature on the Met Office fax charts moving in off the Irish sea tonight, should help increase shower activity:
Looks like the Met Office are already starting to update the warnings, starting with todays system.
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Just an update on the situation now EURO 4 06z data is in:
Colder air wrapping around the low as it heads east, rain to snow risk *possible* for low areas of south Wales much dependant on exact track and precipitation intensity.
Met Office graphic shows the risk of potential snowfall very nicely.
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Currently awaiting the 06Z Euro 4 data to see how it handles the frontal wave that develops Thursday and runs east across the south of the UK.
My current thoughts are upland areas of South Wales will see some sticking snow e.g. Merthyr, Dowlais, Tredegar. That being said as it develops further and colder air digs down areas of SE/E Wales could see some falling snow for a time. Ice becoming a real risk also for most areas.
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On the EURO 4 model @48hrs there does seem to be a frontal wave which would provide increased chances of precipitation (rain/sleet/snow) across southern parts of the UK as it runs east. Worth keeping a close eye on in future runs
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Just now, bradythemole said:
The warning has just been updated. Warning area size has decreased to more western and northern Wales.
i wouldn't read too much into it, winds will blow showers well inland but definitely greater risk of settling snow anyway the further west and north you are.
Plenty more changes to come and that's before the potential easterly.
im in Cardiff, I imagine we'll see some falling snow at some point Thursday although the beacons may sap most of the showers.
I agree, Not worth reading to much into the warnings just yet as these will likely change further if possible small scale features get picked up by higher resolution models as we get closer to the time.
For now we know showers most frequent in the north and west, but with a strong north west flow don't be surprised to see these dig further south and east:
Upper air looks very cold also around -8c for a time:
That cold air flowing over the Irish Sea should really get the showers going, maybe a little thunder and lightning thrown in for good measure in the heavier showers!
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Just been looking at the possible shower distribution for Thursday/Friday on the NetWx-MR model:
Lines up pretty nicely with the recent Met Office warnings. I wouldn't be surprised to see a streamer set up around NW Wales & NW England and another moving in off Cardigan bay.
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Thursday into Friday is currently looking interesting for some wintry weather across Wales as more of a Polar Maritime airmass takes control across the country.
Lets hope the North West flow can hold out long enough before reverting back to a less cold Westerly flow.
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Plenty of hail showers overnight here in Swansea & very gusty. Some snow this morning to albeit short lived.
Looking at the Netweather radar there is a band of heavy precipitation moving south and east. It is giving rain to parts of SW Wales but appears to be wintry on the northern flank. As it edges further east id expect to see some snow falling around the Heads Of the Valley road, Dowlais, Tredegar where colder air is present + elevation.
Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion
in Wales / Cymru weather discussion
Posted
Ive noticed tonight that another streamer is forecast but i think the EURO4 tends to overdo the precipitation type as snow this probably being on the wrong side of marginal for most again:
It also keeps tomorrows precipitation way to the south, just about hitting SW England:
However heres a few possibilities if it does end up being further north - ECM06z on the left and ICON06z on the right:
Hopefully this afternoon/evening the models should firm up on the details one way or the other.