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SilverWolf

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    Storms and Convective discussion - May 2024

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted · Edited by SilverWolf

     ChannelThunder Agreed.. some of the best weather I’ve ever experienced (be it snow, storms, whatever), ‘predicted’ or otherwise, have occurred very quickly, often within  less than a couple of hours of radar watching. As you a say a ‘bust’ should be during or after an event, and even then just 20 miles down the road can often be epic during a bust. 

    • Like 3

    South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

    in SW and CS England Weather Discussion

    Posted

     Mapantz Thanks for that, that’s interesting (I’ve had landscaping work on hold for several months as it’s too wet to use a digger ). If I’m reading your chart right, does that mean it’s actually a bit drier than average for you? If so, I’m curious about the soil type you have. Below topsoil here is a lot of clay, some of which is almost pure blue clay a few feet down in places (some areas are more free draining because of seams of limestone and limestone brash). The ground appears generally saturated here still, and the persistent light-moderate rain here today is likely to make even lawns proper ‘squelchy’ for a few days. Feels like we need at least 4 weeks of warm/dry weather to get anywhere near ‘normal’, just below the surface! 

    South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

    in SW and CS England Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by SilverWolf

     jy

    I cut grass as part of my landscaping business (which has evolved over 15 years to be about 40% garden maintenance inc lawns/hedges, and 60% hard landscaping). I quite like lawn mowing, but it really does depend on which lawns, the weather and how much they’ve grown! It’s going to be a tough few months of cutting as the ground is so wet, and they are rocketing at the moment. Just this week a lawn I did my own took 3 hours instead of the usual 2.. and flat lawns are rare around here. A rare flat lawn I did just before that one took over 2 hours, when I have done it in an hour and a quarter.. it produced 4 times the amount of grass cuttings compared to 4 weeks ago! So it’s a mixed bag for me depending on how much it grows - which of course is weather dependant. Thankfully most of our lawns are timed and priced accordingly.... 

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    Storm Isha, Amber ⚠️

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    I spent years using risk assessments in care/support work. Even if a possible situation was regarded to be ‘high’ and ‘likely’, the situations didn’t occur all the time. But that the point of a risk assessment - be ready in case it does. No different to weather warnings. Amber warning is not ‘definite’ and anyone who thinks otherwise and is disappointed after the fact  needs to learn how the warnings work.
    We’re all at least a little weather savvy on here, so perhaps we don’t need the warnings so much - how many here look at the models or opinions about them most days? I do. I knew this storm was ‘probably’ coming days ago. But my parents wouldn’t have. I’m sure they were grateful for the warnings on the BBC, ‘just in case’, and even more grateful some of the forecasting models weren’t correct. I haven’t talked to them yet, but I bet my Dad was out checking the garden to make sure certain things weren’t vulnerable to strong wind.

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    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by SilverWolf

    Interesting reading the thread.. Sure posts reflecting what some of the models are suggesting are being posted as is… but the big variation in possibilities are reflected in the posts. Very interesting times ahead, even this week (Wednesday still has interest in the south, and that’s not IMBY as it’s pretty unlikely for me). For the last week, and going forward, this has been a the most fascinating model watch for some years, even for someone like me who relies on the knowledge of others.  

    • Like 10
    • Insightful 1

    Moans, ramps and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by SilverWolf

    4 minutes ago, JimBob said:
    25 minutes ago, Alderc 2.0 said:

    They are probably being very cautious. A few tens of miles it’s the difference between some of the heaviest snow this region has seen since 2010 and absolutely nothing. Issuing a warm for nothing to happen would be damaging from a credibility perspective.  Would expect warnings not to be issued until Tuesday, if at all - unless there’s a big northward shift. 

     

     

    More the fact that there is zero risk of anything happening down south! 

    Even later in the day on 10th Dec 22, there was a slight risk of a few light snow showers by morning where I am. Had 7 inches of snow on the morning of the 11th.. 

    South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

    in SW and CS England Weather Discussion

    Posted

    56 minutes ago, AWD said:

    The way I think it’ll play out midweek, when taking everything into a blend of a median, is something like the below;

    IMG_0798.thumb.jpeg.ce782e4fea8d5e6ac6fb6abcccbf3865.jpeg

    Each line being the northern extent of any PPN.

    Red line - 45% chance and currently the most favoured.

    Blue line - 25% chance

    Green line - 15% chance

    Yellow line - 10% chance 

    5% chance - The weather is never 100% guaranteed and sometimes does the unexpected, so I will always leave a 5% chance for it to do something totally unmodelled like blast up to Scotland etc.  Never can we forecast the weather with 100% certainty.

    Also, small caveat is I’m not 100% convinced that any PPN that may reach southern coastal counties/IOW is certain to fall as snow and not rain.  There’s more to forecasting snow than just the 850hpa temps and some modelling does play around with the idea of less cold sectors being mixed in with this LP, less favourable DP’s etc so definitely a lot to watch for, for those on the South Coast.

    Finally, our channel Island members in here MAY be our snowiest parts of the region next week.  Not often we say that!!

    That looks about right! The 5%  you mentioned, is there any chance the low could pivot and move north? Or is simply to big and will just barrel through, regardless of where it runs? I asked this the the MOD thread, but it was quickly buried with other posts.. 

    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    14 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

    Well for a start, the chart is 5 days away. Last Monday was dry 5 days away and yet that had mostly light snow across large parts of the South.

    Secondly, the chart is not a high-resolution precipitation chart, so it doesn't contain any details, good or bad.

    Thirdly, even if a high resolution chart at T+6 says no, the verification is not 100% and nowcast would still need to be applied.

    Agree with that! I’ve mentioned before, and yes IMBY (in the past), but Dec 22 was exactly that. 

    • Like 1

    South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

    in SW and CS England Weather Discussion

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, AWD said:

    That’s one specific GEFS Ensemble perturbation on a very low grid point chart unfortunately.

    In other words, that specific chart is about as reliable as a GWR train!

    Ok sure.. but ‘potential’ is what it is.. without looking, I get the impression it wasn’t there yesterday. And it was partly just for fun really. I’ve got no real expectation it’ll happen. 

    34 minutes ago, Frank Trough said:

    Cold rain 😀🕺🏿 my favourite weather type on already saturated ground

    Ok, apologies for those further south than me! IF anything occurs, looks far more likely for you than me right now.. 

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

    Snow can’t be forecast until 48hours before the models don’t have the resolution to pick up disturbances so to say it’s dry now is a lesson we learnt years ago in these spells. Best bet is your hi res models 48hours out

    Not nationwide, but the fairly substantial snow I had in Dec 22 wasn’t predicted 12 hours before! I’ll always remember that when scenarios like next week are probably upcoming…

    • Like 3

    South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

    in SW and CS England Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by SilverWolf

    6 minutes ago, Saint coolio said:

    I wonder if there’s a world record for the lightest possible snow that actually counts as snow.

    if so, we’d be in with a shout here in the test valley with our 1 flake per 5 minutes blizzard

    I remember February 2005 (I think?)  was cloudy and freezing cold for best part of a couple of weeks - nearly everyday there was constant but extremely light snow. On the odd day, there would be little drifts along some walls an inch or 2 deep, but that was literally it! Very frustrating, after just a few days was hoping it would clear up so I could get a frost! 

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