[Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023]

1 hour ago, Eskimo said:

Storms didnt fire until, what, 4-5 yesterday? What's everyone worrying about. You don't tend to get diurnal thunderstorms until later afternoon at the earliest.

I think the potential issue a fair few of us have, it’s been cloudy with intermittent rain all day… it feels potentially primed where I am, but maybe need a few hours of sun! Short lived heavy shower here this morning electrified further north as it met an area that had had sun all morning… not had that yet. 

[Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023]

56 minutes ago, MrNooo said:

Yes, same here, total cloud cover and spotting with rain most of the morning! It may burn off, fingers crossed

Same in Stroud.. it’s pretty humid and warm considering. But need a few hours of strong sun soon I feel! 

[Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023]

That’ll prob be it for today! 

[Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023]

Just now, FBR said:

Getting rumbles here, sounds like it from the West now but can't get a handle on it. Definitely 2 distinct rumbles right as we put the bloody washing on the line

Just heard a distant rumble, sounds a fair few miles away from me 

[Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023]

2 minutes ago, FBR said:

Was that thunder over you? I heard something in the distance 

Not heard anything here… 

Edit: faint rumble in the distance 

[Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023]

2 minutes ago, FBR said:

Whatever is over Stroud way looks quite meaty. Hope it doesn't screw up my chances later

Chucking it down in Stroud… some poor person has left a sunroof partly open in their car, but I’ve no idea who’s it is! 

[Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023]

Hi, question for the far more knowledgable than me…. Where I am looks like some heavy showers in bound in the next hour or so (not storms at present). If these come through quickly and the sun comes after , what affect may this have on potential storms later? Would wet ground followed by heat/sun increase the chances? 

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

15 hours ago, alexisj9 said:

Other problem, and it would affect even leafless trees, very saturated ground.

Saturated soil is a mainly a problem if it’s mainly  clay over rock/brash, as it can literally slide, but I would say at the moment soil isn’t particularly saturated, especially compared to end winter 19/20. The worst soil for wind for trees in leaf or not is very dry soil, as tree roots loose their ‘grip’. 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion]

5 hours ago, Dorsetbred said:

Morning All, a fine clear sunny yet cool 0C start to the day. Clear skies, but -14C windchill might just take the edge off things at altitude.

Polar vortex hit Dorset today! 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion]

12 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

I haven't. Although I don't want waking up before the alarm. Come to it I don't even want waking when the alarm goes

Fair enough! I know someone who used one, and they were surprised the light didn’t wake them up - it takes a long time to light up, and wasn’t crazy bright when the alarm went off.. and I think the alarm itself was ‘optional’! 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion]

2 hours ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Well i'm feeling down. The cloud has got to me after 2 weeks of constant gloom. My SAD is back. Going to get outside and see how I go.

Have you tried a daylight alarm clock? They slowly light up the room with a warm light before the alarm goes off.. they’ve apparently helped people who suffer with SAD throughout the winter… 

[Model discussion highlights]

1 hour ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

But snowy weather in early March isn't unusual looking back historically. It's just that March over the last 20-30 years has been so much milder then in decades gone by.

I agree with that. I remember snow in April in the early 80’s in Gloucestershire a few times. But that ‘normal’ really ended in the mid 80’s. There’s been far more snowless winters since then, let alone March. But I think people are comparing this March to 2018 only, which was exceptional and rare regardless of the decade..  

[Model discussion highlights]

As someone who lives in the south, I saw falling snow on Monday, Tuesday, Thursday and Friday. The garden I was working in on Friday had 2 inches of snow on it until lunchtime. Sure, it wasn’t sub zero all week, and I wasn’t snowed in, but this hasn’t been a ‘normal’ March here. Not 2018 either, of course, but not normal for the last 30 years. Just an observation from someone who’s also worked outside for the last 15 years. 

[Model discussion highlights]

1 minute ago, JR319 said:

I’ve noticed on Monday, there will be gusts of between 50-60mph quite widely across England and parts of Wales. 
 

Is this worth discussion and/or any weather warnings or is this standard weather for this time of the year? 

I would say def worth discussion - especially given the lack of named storms this winter! But I can’t do the technical stuff, so over to others for that… 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion]

13 minutes ago, Bristle Si said:

My weather app is showing light snow, for here, from 6-9am tom morn.

Interesting - it’s just sub zero  here, might go a little white if that happens before the temp goes up! 

[Model Output Discussion - Snow Watch limited edition]

4 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

There is a chance of this thread not getting the chop in spite of it being a limited edition. It seems people are having a grand time with it. Just like the snow in the strong sunshine, we wouldn’t want to melt away the enjoyment those are experiencing with this place. 

What we may very well do is whenever weather events turn up - further cold/snowy spells, hot spells, windstorms, thunderstorms, drought, flooding etc, we could change the latter part of the thread title to reflect it. E.g: Model Output Discussion - Thunderstorm Watch (or Thunderstorm Tracker), Model Output Discussion - Wind Watch (or Gale Gazers), or something more general such as Model Output Discussion - Weather Watch. 

That sounds like a great idea… can a normal model discussion run as well? Maybe a bit more restrictive what’s posted on that, with both running at the same time? 

[Model Output Discussion - Snow Watch limited edition]

^ Maybe even later tonight for the south? Or just wishful thinking…showing some sleet/snow over higher ground of Devon at the moment. 

 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion]

I’m not done with this cold spell yet! Any possibility from this for something later tonight? It’s hovering around 0c here, which is actually the lowest it’s been for a bit. Was snowing at 1c this morning, and don’t think it was colder before it arrived… 

[Model Output Discussion - Snow Watch limited edition]

11 minutes ago, Stuie said:

That does seem to have `some legs` for now.

Regarding tomorrow night again, look where the LP or LP`s are currently and the forecast jet tomorrow. Track of tomorrows low could easily be more south and drag in less warmer air. Just having a punt.

Kind of like today… a few days back is was looking at being mild right up through England today after snow event.. was snowing here in Glos at 8am, and was on the ground where I was working til 12 o’clock.. 

The little system that came out of Ireland earlier today has only just clipped Cornwall and kept it cold. All up for grabs I reckon! 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion]

This heavy bit in Wales is all snow, could get interesting round Bristol and bits of Somerset soon.. 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion]

Just now, Blizzardof82 said:

 

Interesting! If that could end up more south west of that at that time, lots of happy people here tomorrow morning… 

[Model Output Discussion - Snow Watch limited edition]

8 minutes ago, Blizzardof82 said:

Yes looks a lot further North looking at radar

It’s an interesting picture where it’s at… precip showing sleet/snow a long way north, but also a long way south west too.. 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion]

New warning for ‘Snow and Ice’ from Met, 4am-10am tomorrow  morning.. pretty close to north of our region. 
 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion]

42 minutes ago, chris55 said:

I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see at least some falling snow and possible accumulations in Gloucestershire early hours tomorrow. As that cold air digs south, we look to be right in the centre of the pivot.

 

Any chance the precip will pick up after it leaves Ireland? No clue as to what the sea will do to it… 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion]

My extremely rose tinted look at much later tonight and early (perhaps with a dose of IMBY). 
The low pressure is further south than predicted right now. It’s showing sleet/snow (admittedly high ground) in SW Ireland, and as the crow flies about 50 miles NW of me currently. Every time we get a heavy shower here the temp drops rapidly (it’s all rain atm), and does recover a bit after - beet scientific observation from ‘stepping outside’. IF the low sinks south east as it passes much later tonight, temp will prob drop sharply and quickly. Could be snow, at least over high ground, but not exclusively. 
 

My realistic take is that the temp drop will happen, but there may not be much precip left in the system - so perhaps a dusting over higher ground first thing tomorrow. 
 

See what occurs!