virtualsphere
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Anybody know what the front that's coming across Wales right now is doing? sleet/snow/rain?
It's about to hit Ponty anyway - should know shortly - I know it's flippin cold out again though!
Afraid it was just rain when it came through here in the last hour...
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Actually the delay does suggest they may not be looking at warm months quite so closely. Either that or the last two cold months had bad data that needed be looking in. If feb goes the same way and a similar delay then March is mild and comes out straight away it would be a little fishy but only a little.
If indeed this is the case, do you think it would be because there is much more likely to be media scrutiny of any data which is notably far from the norm? For example, if a month comes in a few degrees off average there isn't likely to be the same level of interest as there is when a month is the coldest for over 20 years - so they see the need to check the data more thoroughly to ensure that if there is any criticism they can justify the results?
If so, presumably the same would apply to an unusually warm month, but I've not been on here long enough to know how long it normally takes for considerably above average months to be finalised?
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I also think that the glorious cold spell from pretty much mid Dec to mid Jan has, rather unfairly, led people to expect that the dream cold scenarios are going to come to fruition every time...
You're quite right there, but having said that we would be pretty unlucky if things turned out the way the GFS suggests, because looking at that chart there is very cold air at our latitude not just to the east, but to the west as well! We were spoiled in Dec / Jan, but since instead of going into a zonal pattern or something else where any cold has been shifted way into FI we have seen tantalising glimpses of possible cold scenarios fairly near the reliable time frame, with some unusual synoptics.
Having said that, the ECM does slide the low S bringing in an easterly, and even though the GFS does show a more SW flow by the end of the week we are still very close to the -5 upper air. The mild SW charts from GFS don't show until Mon 22nd which is far too long away to call, I think.
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Isn't it always.... !!!
Still very cold here today, and this blue skies weather is very good for the soul..! Let's hope we have similar set ups during the summer, with high sitting to our south..
yes,we haven't done so well for snow but the set up this week has been great for sunshine - next best thing!
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The ECM retains the low almost directly over the UK and the GFS has now moved the low further west again, with the coldest upper air now sitting to the east of the UK this isn't looking so good for us.
Having said that, as others have pointed out, snow can still fall in this situation when conditions are favourable, and once the low sinks the GFS does put us back in the colder air next Thursday on its eastern flank with the wind direction veering easterly. A long way off yet though!
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GFS looks very promising for next week, with Wales on the western side of the low, other models tend to have more on the eastern side of the low, this is a high risk but high reward strategy, there could be a lot of snow, but also a lot of rain.
With tele-connections perhaps indicating that the models are being over progressive in moving the Greenland High, perhasp luck will be on our side.
Yes, early days yet but I agree it's looking promising. The GFS 12Z run for 6am Tuesday morning moves the centre of the low further east and has all of Wales and most of the UK under -5C 850s, which is an improvement on the 06Z at the same time that had the centre of the low over the UK and the -5C 850s were only over North wales.
ECM not looking so good for the UK but still plenty of time for adjustments to be made, and it does look like the teleconnections may work in our favour (not that I know much about them, but I'm trying to learn by reading the experts!)...
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Some fantastic pictures here which will put mine to shame, however I thought I would add my own taken on 12th Jan:
I'm afraid I'm cheating as this is the outside light on my house, however it does sort of fit with the theme! It was taken on my mobile which has unfortunately made it look like rain! However the photos below show what is really happening, and the end result the following morning.
Hopefully we will have some more snow here in West Wales next week and I can then add a proper photo to this thread.
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Dec 81 - Jan 82 1.45c
Dec 81 - Feb 82 2.5c
Dec 90 - Jan 91 3.8c
Dec 90 - Feb 1991 3.03
Dec 95 - Jan 96 3.3c
Dec 95 - Feb 96 3.03
It's still far from certain whether we're going to beat those two winters or even 1996/1997.
Thanks for digging out the data for those winters. I agree that the way the models are currently looking for early February, far from certain we'll match or beat any of those, but it's still all to play for with so much variation in the models and forecasts recently. If the predicted blocking mentioned in the technical model thread does occur and is in a favourable position for us then the 81/82 figure may be within reach.
If February does bring a SW flow and we end up with a high CET it would be a shame, but at least we should record an exceptional (by recent standards) figure for January - and for me it's certainly been the snowiest period I can remember, with 15 days of lying snow and several significant falls. 1982 was snowier here in SW Wales but I was only 3 at the time! Reading some of the posts on here I think my location has been more favourable for snow than some.
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It would be remarkable to have two sub-3C months in a row after such a long gap, but with the models the way they are it's hard to rule it out.
1) The last winter were 2 sub 3C months occured in a row was 1996-1997 with December 1996 2.9C and January 1997 2.5C.
January 1997 was also the last sub 3C month, so the last time a sub 3C month occurred, two occurred together!
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The coldest winters since 1895:
1962/63: -0.33C
1946/47: 1.13C
1917/18: 1.47C
1939/40: 1.47C
1978/78: 1.57C
1928/29: 1.70C
1941/42: 2.20C
2009/10: 2.41C (to Jan 28th provisonally)
A mean of 3.22C required in the remaining 31 days of winter to stay in the top 10 in the last 115 years.
Just out of interest, where do 1981/2, 1995/6 and 1990/1 appear in the table? Surely we can't be in line to beat 1981/2 without another very cold spell - or did the warmer February push it down the list?
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Thanks for replying everyone.
Nice to hear some memories of this month and the similarities to the current month are interesting with the cold coming during the first 10 days. Let's hope the rest of this winter doesn't go the same way and the atlantic doesn't manage to make a return this time! We've done very well here in West Wales from this month's set-up, had some good snowfalls due to showers from the initial northerly, followed by several frontal snowfall events too. I expect no significant snow reached here in Jan '97 as any snow showers from easterlies don't tend to make it this far west. We may well have had rain when the atlantic came back - probably too close to the west coast for snow - which is why I don't remember it.
Interesting to hear about the dryness of the month too. Looking at some charts shows high pressure was influencing the UK for much of the month.
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This month looks like being the coldest CET month since at least Feb '91, lower than Jan '97 which has been the coldest CET month for the last 13 years at 2.5C.
Yet the only references to Jan '97 I can find are to do with the CET figure itself, and not the weather. I don't have any recollection of the month at all, which I'm sure I would if there had been remarkable snowfall or a long run of sub-zero temperatures. A lot of people talk about Winter '95-96 yet in CET terms Jan '97 was equal to Feb '96 and only 0.2 higher than Dec '95.
Does anyone have any memories about Jan '97 and why it turned out to be the coldest month for the following 13 years, and what synoptics caused it? I'm assuming by the lack of references it must have been inversion cold under high pressure and not a big snowfall event - or maybe here in Wales we missed out on any excitement?
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I'm still fairly new to all this so I've held on until now as, until a few days ago, February looked to be the hardest month to call of the winter. While there seemed to be a consensus early on that January would be a cold month, opinions on Feb have been very mixed with some experts / forecasts going for a milder month and others going for a continuation of the winter's cold synoptics.
It's time to put in a punt I think and as recent charts seem to have increased the balance in favour of cold, at least for the early part of the month , I'm going to go for 2.9. After all, as the saying goes, you wait all day 13 years for a bus sub 3.0C month and then two come along at once... maybe!
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I'll stick with the cold theme and go with 2.2 please.
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5.3 for me please.
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Friend of mine on a military training exercise in Sennybridge reported a thunderstorm last night around 9-10pm. Got caught out in the field, he wasn't happy.
That'll probably be the one we had here in Carmarthenshire at about 8pm then. Had two more in the night, 3 flashes and rumbles at 1.40am and then 2 more at 5.40am accompanied by some noisy hail!
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We had plenty of snow in SW Wales on 25th November 2005, at the time it was the deepest snow I'd seen here for 6 or 7 years. The snow was mainly confined to western parts of Wales due to the North Channel effect, there's a good article about the event on this site:
http://www.geologywa...s/autumn05b.htm
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7.3 for me please.
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A few others have mentioned 9th Feb 2007 - definitely the worst one here. I seem to remember the forecast for 8th was fairly accurate with a small amount of snow, and then rain was forecasted for 9th. It rained until around 10 or 11am and then turned to heavy snow, which lasted for a large part of the day. In the end it was the deepest snow I've experienced since 1982 when I was only 4!
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...although October hasn't been that eventful..
Scratch that after yesterday, had a good 10 rumbles from a localised storm mid-afternoon here! From the ATD looks like we were the only area to get hit bar the extreme S / SE of England, though Met Office did have warnings out for East Wales rather than here in the west.
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Returning polar maritime air from cyclonic/southerly flows is a surprisingly frequent source of thunderstorms in western and southern areas, even in the winter half-year. Novembers 1997 and 2002 had a lot of thunder in some western and southern areas due to frequent recurrence of this setup towards the SW. October 1996 had 5 thunder-days at Exeter Airport because of the setup.
Can certainly vouch for that here in SW Wales - although October hasn't been that eventful the most memorable thunderstorm I can recall in recent years was last November. Last year's Rememberance Sunday storms here were the worst I can remember in at least the last 15 years, probably longer, with thunder heard from just before mid-day until after 6pm, and ball lightning was reported in a village less than 10 miles from my house: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wales/7720630.stm
This was quite a localised event I think.
We also had thunder in February here in both 2007 and 2008, the 2007 event was a night-time cold front squall line set-up which was quite memorable too.
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10.4 for me please.
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North East Carms. towards Cross Hands - our windows face North / South though so if there was a flash to the west I could have missed it.
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Yes - can confirm v. heavy rain here in Carmarthenshire, no thunder as yet though.
Welsh Cold Weather Discussion Thread
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
...and now sudden and unexpected hail!