virtualsphere
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Posts posted by virtualsphere
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I have to admire anyone who prepares a long range forecast as if I did one it would be complete guesswork, so hats off to everyone who had a go last year - and hope you'll all be giving your thoughts again this time round!
My vote would have to go with RJS & BFTP or the official Netweather forecast because of the level of detail involved. To give credit where due some of the others were also accurate, but these stood out for me as it's much harder for a forecast to verify when providing detailed synoptics as people will inevitably judge not just on the weather and CET values but also on where and when the blocking / low pressure takes place. In addition both forecasts were very well explained which is a great help to those of us who are still learning the basics!
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On Friday night 12 November as I was travelling south om the M6 approaching Preston ,Lanc's sometime around 6.10pm approx I saw what i thought to be lighting. This was just to the west of the town i saw it through the trees and half wondered if it was from the overhead power cables on the trainlines. I did not think too much more about it until we were in Preston and hit rain. I then saw a more powerful flash again. This time it was more into the built up area and the street lights went out. I was listening to radio Lancashire and they too had a power outage and they lost contact with a person in Preston who had been talking to them on the phone.
I wouldn't mind if any one that lives in that area could say if there was anything around that night or if they knew what happened.
Tom
You may be right - look at this site which shows lightning strikes for the last week: http://andvari.vedur...gar/index.html?
There are some strikes showing as being in the Preston area including one in light orange (for Friday 12th).
I'm not sure how good the data is but it's supplied by the UK Met Office so would have thought the location is fairly accurate - maybe it doesn't pick up all the strikes though.
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TORRO have issued a warning for tomorrow: http://www.torro.org.uk/site/forecast.php
Looking at the BBC weather maps, a sharp line of more intense precipitation shows up from 9:00 - 15:00 crossing southern England, which seems to line up with the cold front showing on the Fax charts.
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overnight any thunder with the showers, ive not looked into this, has anyone? hail?
Thundery potential from the big storm around low center? il leave that to to the more experienced. thanks.
Certainly not more experienced - but a couple of sferics appearing in the Cardigan Bay area according to ATD, and UKWeatherWorld have a convective thread covering Wales and SW England for tonight for hail showers:
http://www.ukweather...posts=5&start=1
Some decent echoes showing on the radar too associated with the trough currently passing through.
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What I find quite interesting today is that they must've spotted something because they both went for similar forecasts. It's not a case of just one forecaster making a mistake, but 2 this time round. Most odd.
Just out of interest, has anyone ever tried comparing the accuracy of the predictions made by all the different storm forecasting sites, ESTOFEX, UKASF etc over a sustained period of time for their area or the UK?
It's probably quite hard to do given there's only usually a small chance of a storm over any given point?
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A belated thanks to GP and the Netweather team for making such a detailed winter forecast available again this year
Some have mentioned that going for a high pressure dominated set-up is a 'safe option' which would be a fair point if this is all the forecast said, but it's worth remembering the forecast goes into a lot more detail including where the high pressure is due to be centred each month, as well as temperature and rainfall predictions. What is really interesting (and very useful for those like me who want to learn more about how forecasting works) is the level of detail in describing the atmospheric synoptics likely to drive this winter's weather pattern - La Nina, sea surface temperature anomalies etc.
Anyway keep up the good work and I'll be looking forward to reading the posts and forecasts on here throughout the winter!
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Let's try 7.4C please - starting mild and unsettled but hoping for something cooler and more settled come mid-month.
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I think slightly below average, so will try 10.3C
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Assuming you mean 1040mb, and you include north eastern Europe, you don't have to go back too far. I'm sure if you look hard enough there are much better examples, especially for central Europe and indeed the UK.
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a chilly 12.8C please.
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17.2 for me please.
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Late entry of 16.2 for me.
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Well done to the 3 players who got the 10.7c spot on.
virtualsphere
Paul T
Rainbow Snow
I'd love to be able to say that I used some kind of expert forecasting knowledge, but in reality it was a complete guess...
Thought I'd underestimated after the recent warm spell, but it was rounded down more than I expected! <_<
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on the cool side - 13.7C for me please
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10.7C please
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8.2 for me please.
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I remember a while ago, before winter started, a some stats being posted showing how wet Novembers are often followed by colder winter months. Unfortunately I can't find the original thread, but thought it was worth revisiting now winter is over. I do remember one post giving a reason which could explain this pattern, but can't remember what - something to do with the jet tracking in a more southerly position perhaps?
Apologies I can't credit the original posters as I can't find the thread.
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10.11C according to the Met Office
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Never mind reaching 10C, what about recording a sub 9C year? It's easy to forget that until relatively recently (circa 1994) that the majority of years came in between 9 and 10, with 10+ being less likely and two sub-9C years reported together in 1985 and 1986. Both got off to a colder start, but also recorded Decembers in the 6C+ range. If March continues below average, and December comes in between 3 and 4C, then we wouldn't need to go too much below average so I think this year may be as good a shot as we get for a while.
Given that we've waited so long for a sub 3C month and then we not only get two together, but also a sub 2C month to boot, what is to say that it can't happen for the annual series?
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Why do you think that this summer may be another poor one? I think that if a blocking regime continued into the summer months and if high pressure established itself over the UK the coming summer could end up being a rather warm and sunny one. After all we seem to be in quite a long period of Atlantic inactivity, and if that did continue into the summer months then a rather decent summer could be possible. I am not necessarily looking for endless days of 30C+, but if we had a protracted period of sunny weather with temperatures in the low to mid 20s I am sure all of us would be very happy event if we are entering a cooler period a good summer doesn't always mean blistering heatwaves with weeks of temperatures over 30C.
I'm no expert but I assume that, if one of the main reasons we've experienced a couple of colder winters is the jet taking a more southerly track, this would also suggest that blocking in summer is likely to be from a more northerly source than ridging from the traditional Azores high, thus bringing colder conditions in any settled spells? Having said that I expect a continental easterly influence would probably bring warm weather.
I believe the jet normally moves northwards in the summer which brought us the warmer, dryer summers in the 1990s and early 2000s, and then sinks southwards in the winter leaving us in the path of Atlantic lows. The wet conditions over the last three summers were at least partly caused by the jet being right over the UK leaving us exposed to the lows, and now we've seen it sink south in winter bringing the cold weather. So if the jet does make its usual northward movement for the summer, it may not be far enough north to leave us in any prolonged ridging from a high with a southerly source?
Obviously if this pattern does continue then we would then be in with a good chance of a cold winter again next year, providing other factors work in our favour.
This is probably way too simplistic, so don't discount summer just yet!
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A long way off I know, but it appears some sort of model agreement for early march.
If these came off what sort of temps could we expect ?
Here's the 850hpa temperatures for the GFS chart you posted which show quite a potent North Easterly. The GFS shows max daytime temps around 2 - 4C the following day for the UK with the lowest reseved for the SE. I don't know how accurate these are, and whether any clear skies would allow the sun to raise the surface temps? The upper air temps would suggest a sunshine and snow showers set-up going by the earlier post by Thundery Wintry Showers, though under high pressure not sure how widespread any showers would be.
Still a very long way off in FI at this stage though, so anything can (and probably will) happen...
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I think it will remain cool for a while yet - so let's try 5.3C.
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I'm calling this a memorable winter in terms of my personal experience and lifespan the coldest and snowiest I can remember.
Yes, I'd agree with that - I'm 31 and it's definitely the coldest and snowiest winter I remember by a long way. As I posted a while ago, probably in this same thread, I was alive in '79 and '81/82, and I know '82 was snowier here but I was too young to remember it as I was only 3 at the time. We had 15 days of lying snow here in January - the most I'd seen before then was last February when we had 6 days, and before then I only remember snow lying for around 4 days max.
The interesting thing is that this winter may well become a bit of a reference point in future. If we were not to see a winter like this for another 30 years, then I'd be 61 and it would still be the coldest winter I can remember - those that could remember '79 and '81/2 would be in their late 60s and there would be very few who could remember '63 or '47. Of course, history suggests these things run in cycles so we could well be in for some more colder winters, and as one thing we've not had this year is a blast of very cold upper air, like Jan '87, there is still a chance we could record an individual colder month. Having said that, as the stats show in terms of the length of the cold period this winter is now holding its own against the legendary 20th Century winters so I think there is a good chance it could still be the most prolonged cold winter I have experienced by 2040 if not the coldest.
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back end of the front is dragging in the cold air
and this below is for wednesday
The hail must have marked the back edge of the front as it's all gone quiet here now. Wednesday looking interesting!
Rjs And Bftp Winter 2010/11 Lrf
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
A belated thanks to RJS & BFTP for this interesting forecast and all the work you've put in, an enjoyable read.
I'm interested in your thoughts for Feb, which seems to go against the more conventional forecasts I've seen. Am I correct in thinking that your method should work well over a longer timescale, as it isn't subject to model degredation (as RJS mentions on a previous post) so regardless of how your forecast for Dec pans out there is still an equal chance of your forecast for Feb verifying? If so, it will be worth reviewing the forecast at the end of winter given these differences.