mwhalber
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Posts posted by mwhalber
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it always warm up when snow coming
Sorry, but this is not true.
The reason it might be melting for you is due to the encroaching warm front.
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clear skies here in shooter's hill (London).
Looks to me like the precip associated with the overrunning warm front from europe is fizzling out.
what do you guys think?
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It really comes down to data points. In continental climes, we have data for systems as they move across land...in our maritime climate, most systems move off of the sea/ocean where we only have ship reports. Less data == less accurate forecasts, so yes, technically it is more difficult.
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We are going to get nothing out of the northerly, we never do well with northerlies and the warm sectors look primed for the south, really see little optimism for a snow fest now
conjecture != model discussion.
Please back up statements with data.
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Severe downgrades for the south today it is fast becoming a northern and north eastern event, we will end up with the north and north east getting several feet of snow by sunday night and the south getting at best a wintry mix. Very disappointing, guess am ging to have to go snow chasing later in the week
based upon what data are you making this statement? what downgrade, on what model panels/runs for the SE?
please back up your statements with data.
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This little feature running across the south needs to be monitored;
Maximum temperatures around 2c-4c.
And those charts from 20th December are something really special. Slack winds, total snowcover I'm sure nearing -20c would be recorded under those conditions.
agreed. This feature seems to be around on the NOGAPS for Friday Midday as well, with the eastern cold pool having arrived on the continent
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It looks to me like the GFS keeps both the polar and russian cold pools away from england, however, the GEM seems to bring both over blighty on Sunday...and keeps them there for a significant period.
The GFS shows some precip/convection around the same period over the London area shortly before (-6h), but this is mixing models, so not very accurate.
My feeling is that the best chance for a major event, based upon current output is Sunday daytime. What do you guys think?
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Somethings happening looks like rainy/snow at the moment!
where?
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Hmm this is odd! Is the radar playing up? We only have a handful of reports of snow despite the radar!
Probably evaporating in the upper layers...should start if they become saturated, i guess.
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nothing in Canary Wharf yet!
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pressure still dropping here 979mb, winds from the ENE and temp up 1C in the past hour...very foggy and very light rain.
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They're getting a bit carried away now! :lol:
I agree, it really seems that they are just constantly covering their a**es instead of making accurate calls on the weather!
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just rain here as well and 35.8F
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latest update from LCY METAR shows that temp has dropped to DP, (-2C in one hour), however DP and pressure have remained steady.
9 AM (14) Feb 05 37 (3) 37 (3) 29.18 (0988) WNW 2 light rain showers
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latest METAR from LCY shows that the winds have shifted from calm to WNW and the dewpoint dropping. If this is valid and confirmed after the next couple of updates, could be a very good sign for London seeing snow. Ideally the DP will continue to drop as the colder, drier air arrives.
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Are you on the top by Shrewsbury Lane?- You may last for 15 mins....
S
yep, very near there!
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getting heavier here in se london. temp is rising with it mind - up to 1.5oC from 1.2oC 30 mins ago...
Temp here up as well from 32.0 to 32.4 F in past hour
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snow in shooter's hill, very light.
temp = ~32C
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From what I can tell, the southern CF draped over France during the 18Z UKMO analysis is moving as expected, maybe a bit east of original forecasts, but I don't see the stationary front currently over ROI and Scotland moving at all...I guess the consensus is that the CF behind that stationary will press it south into the southern system? Can anyone confirm? I would have thought that there would be some motion in this norther stationary front by now, however...thoughts?
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Nothing yet in shooter's hill...expecting someting any minute though!!!!
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Looks to me that the northern low is deepening and both the northern and southern fronts have gone stationary...Very interesting to see how far down the cold air gets, as this, IMHO will determine what type of ppn will fall...This seems to be the million-dollar question. I love it mother nature shows her unpredictable side!!
Hope it is OK to post this FAX?
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welcome to NW mwhalber. hope you enjoy the forum. could you pop your location into your avatar please. it gives a sense of where you are when you give any weather reports. thanks <_<
cheers! all done
I am a long-time lurker, but recent events have brought me from the shadows! -
I agree, it seems like the bands of ppn over france are getting more intense. I don't know whether the cold air will reach the london area in time for it to be snow, but it definitely looks possible...It really seems that this could go either way...but with the temp forecasted to be 7C tomorrow in london, looks like anything that does fall will be short-lived! I guess it all depends on where the northern system meets the southern system.
London & South East Cold Spell Discussion
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by mwhalber
I agree, I normally defend the UKMO, but the lack of warnings for this system is indefensible. Looking at the radar last night about midnight, I honestly could not believe that the MO had no issued anything in the way of guidance...did they take the night off!?! Were they snowed in down there in Exeter? I am really starting to lose faith in their predictions and guidance. What use are warnings being issued *as* the event takes place?!