Timmead

Firstly, I think you'll find you are plain wrong on that front - Netweather(/GFS/CFS) does not get more right than the MO. The thing about the MO's LRFs is that they didn't actually get it wrong - when you assign probabilities to different scenarios the concept of wrongness doesn't really exist. But that is a another matter. The point I'm making is that, whether or not this forecast verifies, it's just not possible to predict the weather that far ahead with anything like the degree of certainty or the level of detail that has been expressed. That is plain fact, and that is why I said it was just a bit of fun, though I appreciate that I may have been unkind in that regard. Overall the reasoning seems perfectly sound, I just wish it wouldn't be so sure of itself.

I have no doubt that a lot of thought went into it, but please tell me how it is he is able to do a better job than a legion of professional forecasters at the MO? The answer, of course, is that he is not. Quite simply, he is taking a (albeit it very well educated) big punt. The science of LRFs is not well established and involves a lot of educated guesswork. So I implore you to do as I do, and respect science over guesswork.

But what is the point of a detailed forecast when there is so much uncertainty? It's like trying trying to measure the surface temperature of the sun to a tenth of a degree. Or more bluntly, a waste of time if you take it too seriously. I for one thought the Met Office had it spot on when they used to do LRFs. Obviously the verification frequency was not great, but at least they assigned approximate probabilities rather than plumping for one outcome and effectively disregarding everything else. The truth is, know one has a bloody clue how February is going to pan out, so let's just treat this forecast as a bit of fun, which I imagine was the idea.

Everything is uncertain, some things are just more likely than others, and I must say I am surprised at how strong the language used is. Claiming this winter will "very likely" be very dry (never mind next spring!) seems a touch sensational and unscientific. I also noted with interest that CFS forecasts were considered - given their recent ,and in fact general, poor perfotmance, I would think that they would have been largely ignored.

Is your anemometer/vane positioned high above surrounding objects? If not then I'm afraid you will never get decent wind speed or direction readings. The sensors should be 10m above ground and clear from obstructions; this is usually achieved with a mast or mounted aerial pole

Oddly enough, the Environment Agency is reporting that the NW region is experiencing a very dry year so far, with only about 60-70% of the cumulative LTA. Must be a very localised phenomenon you're experiencing.

I have an Oregon Scientific WMR-200 and can thoroughly recommend it. It's over your budget (£350) but amazing they offer the very-similar WMR-100 for nearly £200 less! As far as I know the sensors are the same; it just doesn't have a data logger (useful, but not essential if you PC's hooked up continuously).

Record high temperature range for here today: 17.9 after a min of 3.4 and a max of 21.3; now holding at 21.2. Could be a bit off given that the easterly is running straight into trees near my thermometer, but it is in a Stevenson screen so I'd give an error of less than a degree. Quite exceptional.

Thanks Karl. It's good to have my favourite data centre feature back.

It looks as though the ensembles have stopped updating. Or is it just me?

Which one did you get? Peaked at 16.9 here. Cloud has built up a bit, but there's nothing wrong with some light cumulus to round off a decent day.

12.3 following a night min of 3.8. Looking like we'll get the maximum possible sun total here today, something not acheived since 7th March.

Good luck with your searching.

I'd be happy with another wet and windy spell too. Then for Feb a string of cold but persistently sunny days would be great. By March, maybe some thundersnow to finish off a brilliant winter.

PPN is still light snow here, though it did briefly turned sleety. Hope the snow remains tonight; it's now the deepest it has been since Feb:

Snow is now easing here after a good 4 cm top-up

Still snowing here; intensity is moderate. Temp 0.6oC, DP -0.3oC.

Biggest flakes I've ever seen. People to my south east: there is a great show coming.

Just thought I'd add to the flood of reports: HEAVY SNOW!

Has been snowing, albeit lightly, here for about an hour now! It's even settling a bit, mainly on non-concrete surfaces. Dew point: -1.4 OC

5.8

7.4 please

11.3 for Timmead, please.

ensembles stuck 05/09/09 12z

Late I know... But Timmead will go for 13.9 please.