Timmead
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Posts posted by Timmead
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I can also report this storm in London:
2 CGs and several loud rolls of thunder so far. Only 0.5mm Rain though.
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Timmead's Guess:
17.3
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wow i only had 12.7 mm here and i live very close to you.
I think I was on the W edge of the storm, as a station a mile to my NW recorded only 11mm, and another 2 miles to my SE recorded 38mm.
Might post some pics later but I'm afraid I was stuck with just pea to marble sized hail, and the accompanying rain washed it away very quickly.
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30mm past hour parts of the London area, there must be local flooding!
I can confirm this; water was coming through my back door at the most intense moments - had to put towels down.
It's still raining but the intensity is not what it was.
Rain/Hail now at 37mm.
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35mm and rising fast. Near-constant lightning etc. continues
This storm is going nowhere
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Constant Thunder and Lightning; Hail; Most torrential rain I have ever witnessed.
Over and out; back to the storm!
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Well it's great that the Ensembles are working now...
But I think they need modifying:
The scale for 2m Temps seems inappropriate when -20C has almost never been reported in England, yet 25C is reached routinely.
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Ensembles stuck again
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Just (last 40 mins) got footage of about 20 strikes (mainly CG), though there were loads more i missed with my camera.
Only 1.1mm rain mind, so it seems to have passed only slightly to my south, as some of the strikes were very near.
P.S. Anyone feel like e-mailing ESTOFEX? They made a right cock-up of forecasting today, but good work by VP, Nick F and others in calling it correctly.
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Lightning to the NE, storm approaching from the SW, and thunder all around.
It's finally kicked off!
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19.2 mm of Rain overnight, with 4 IC flashes and attendant thunder accompanying torrential rain at ~0700.
Looking good for more action today, starting with those cells just SW of London.
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No need to boast
The thing about this "competition" is that no one really has an advantage; the forecasters can be wide off the mark whilst novices get lucky.
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I definitely think yesterday's CET max of 24.0 deserves an honourable mention; its the highest since last July.
Also, it was only bettered once last May, supposedly remembered for its heat.
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14.2 for Timmead please
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Piers Corbyn doesn't rate Met Office forecasts
And I don't rate his forecasts:
JANUARY 2008 30day main detail issued 29 Dec 07 - 85% confidence- Very cold with heavy snow likely in the South/East at times.
- A prolonged exceptionally cold spell from around mid-month.
- Generally drier than normal.
Long Range Severe weather warning for British Isles
January 2008 will turn colder in the first week with sleet or snow likely in places. Generally cold conditions continue through the month and overall January 2008 will be unusually cold with heavy snow at times in the South and SouthEast. Overall January 2008 is likely to be as cold or colder than 1987 when averages over day and night were only 0.8C above freezing in Central England.
It is likely to be in one of the six coldest Januarys for 100 years and is expected to include at least one exceptionally cold spell similar in type to that experienced in part of January 1987 and in the legendary January 1740 when biting Easterly gales or near gales at times and snow wreaked havoc.
There is likely to be a number of days when temperatures in parts stay below freezing all day. The lowest night temperatures in parts of the Midlands, North England or Scotland could be minus 17C or possibly colder at times.
Pressure developments. Through a variable first week the track of Low presures – the Jet stream - gets pushed further South by solar effects. High pressure over Scandinavia and extending into Britain at times dominates most of the rest of the month with low pressures in the Mediterranean making a ‘dipole driver’ of very cold East winds from Siberia across Europe and into Britain. Air from the Arctic is likely in the last week of this January.
Weekends JANUARY 2008: 5th/6th Cold, mostly dry, some showers mainly in West/SW esp later. 12th/13th Dry, very cold & bright. 19th/ 20th Blizzards and drifting snow especially in South/East Bitter wind. 26th/27th Dry, very cold, bright.
Overalls: Precipitation well below norm. Temps V cold. Sky Variable. Confidence: ‘AB’ - 80/85%.
Or Netweather/CFS's for that matter:
So in conclusion: Let's leave it to the short term outputs of the GFS/ECM etc. and read any LRFs with great caution. Certainly sweeping statements like "odds on BBQ summer" must be avoided.
- Very cold with heavy snow likely in the South/East at times.
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Ensembles are stuck again, on 0429 something.
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12.0
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Not sure if people are guessing for 80f or 25C.
I'll say 25C on the 21st May at Charlwood
80f is an imperialistic irrelevance to me
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8.5 C
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Is there any way someone could add a feature to the GFS chart viewer, whereby all the charts can be downloaded to the cache so that they can be viewed later in quick succession?
This way transitions will look a lot smoother and I'll probably get a lot less stressed waiting for the next image to load.
Thank You
Timmead
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I'm not feeling very inspired by the CFS output at the moment (bearing in mind they are generally quite accurate):
Looks like below average temperature months will continue for some time yet.
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Today is Half way through March isnt it! 12pm would mark Half way today as there are 31 days.
Eh! 31 days in March. 15 Not even gone. 31/2 = 15.5. Tomorrow noon is half way through.
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have not got any data figures to call on, but here in SE London it has been very dry so far this month, other then the snow event we have hardly had any PPN. this follows on from a dry January
Be careful making baseless statements like that. I recorded 66mm (170% of the LTA) a few miles north of you; a figure I'm sure the MO would classify as being indicative of a 'very wet' month.
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6.0 please
August Cet
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
16.9 for Timmead, please.