Timmead
-
Posts
133 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by Timmead
-
-
Could someone please clarify the mean CET for June? Hadley seems to suggest something like 13.4, but I'm sure I read 14.1 somewhere on this topic. Thanks
-
15.2 for me please
-
So when do they make their forecast?
-
Although the specifics of the forecast may not be accurate come the time, its nice to see a forecast that focuses on something other than extremes (ie either hot or cold). Nice to see a balanced forecast even if it does not verify.
Not based on extremes? "An August on par with July 2007": sounds pretty extreme to me!
-
Now we've beat 25c is it time to look for 30c? B)
30C is certainly looking possible tomorrow, especially so in London with the winds light and the sun shining.
-
the mercury does not lie?
If only!
Anyhow, plenty of >25C official recordings today.
-
Temperatures dropping quite quick now from 25c now down to around 23.2c
how long will this warm spell last, loving the weather lol
No offence intended, but I'm pretty sure that figure is artificially high. With constant sun, the temperature should not alter that dramatically until sunset. You need a Stevenson Screen, or similar, to get accurate figures.
-
I sometimes wonder about the legitmacy of places such as Heathrow also - a weather site surrounded by a couple of hundred acres of dark grey tarmac...
I don't think that their equipment is that crude to be honest. I thought the LWC was only dodgy on account of the UHI effect.
-
Looks like someone's been upping the saturation
; but it's still good in any case. -
25.2
Tuesday
London
So is it the person who accurately forecasts the earliest 25C who wins, or who gets the closest in temperature?
-
Does it matter when the entries come in?
-
Thanks for the help
-
8.4's looking good
-
Why do the " GFS operational" data often differ so greatly from the ensembles, especially with precipitation, and what data do they actually use? Is the GFS generally seen as the most accurate?
Thanks.
-
Can this be the summer that breaks this run?
Summers ending in "8"
1888 CET: 13.7 Rain: 317mm
1898 CET: 15.1 Rain: 166mm
1908 CET: 14.9 Rain: 216mm
1918 CET: 14.9 Rain: 204mm
1928 CET: 14.8 Rain: 253mm
1938 CET: 15.3 Rain: 226mm
1948 CET: 14.8 Rain: 259mm
1958 CET: 15.3 Rain: 310mm
1968 CET: 15.1 Rain: 274mm
1978 CET: 14.5 Rain: 210mm
1988 CET: 14.8 Rain: 268mm
1998 CET: 15.2 Rain: 230mm
2008 ?
CET average: 14.9 Rainfall: 244mm
Is Summer 2008 going to break this odd run or is it going to continue?
The CET average and rainfall averages for summers ending in other numbers for that period of 1880-2007
0 CET average: 15.3 Rainfall: 235.5mm
1 CET average: 15.4 Rainfall: 218.4mm
2 CET average: 14.9 Rainfall: 238mm
3 CET average: 15.6 Rainfall: 200.5mm
4 CET average: 15.4 Rainfall: 218.2mm
5 CET average: 15.7 Rainfall: 194.7mm
6 CET average: 15.5 Rainfall: 211.1mm
7 CET average: 15.4 Rainfall: 213.8mm
8 CET average: 14.9 Rainfall: 244mm
9 CET average: 15.6 Rainfall: 186.9mm
The best summers in that period tended to end in "3" "5" and "9" whilst the poorest tended to end in "2" and "8"
Another interesting fact about summers ending "8" is that there is only one July in that period (1888-1998) actually got above a CET of 16.0 (1928 with 16.1)
Using England and Wales sunshine figures
The sunshine average for summers ending in "5": 591.3hrs
Sunshine average for summers ending in "8": 472.3hrs that compares to summers ending in "2" with an average of 513.4hrs
Taking this into account then the summers ending in "8" have been the poorest overall
Manchester Summer Index average
For summers ending in "8": 193
For summers ending in "5": 233
These may well be interesting, but from a statistical point they mean absolutely nothing! You'd be pretty hard-pressed to find any meaningul correlation between weather and the last number of a year.
-
All we can accurately say at the moment is that temperatures will almost certainly be above "average"; predictions about rainfall are any one's guess really, though amounts will probably be close to typical values.
-
Thunder and heavy hail passed over at around 13:00.
-
please see my post above with the actual version available to read.
why oh why must people misquote.
a 1 in 8 chance or put the other way round 7 out of 8 chances of NOT getting heat!
Couldn't agree with you more; it seems people can read something then completely turn it on its head when they try to interpret it.
-
They forecast record breaking heat for last summer!
How did you manage to infer that? It seems to me as though they have little clue; their "safe" forecast doesn't actually reveal much as far as I can tell.
-
Light snow coverings sometimes give the best pictures:
-
The countryfile forcast says a cloudy anticyclonic returning maritime tropical airmass will set in by Thursday giving mild temperatures by both day and night over the UK (as high as mid double figures). This will certainly dampen chances of a below average April if it lasts too long.
Yes but the latest charts suggest a return to a northerly setup after that, which could bring the CET right down; it all depends on how long it lasts.
-
8.4 - seems a reasonable guesstimate to me.
-
Frequent heavy snow showers here in North London; not settling but its the first snow of the season!
-
Came right over me. It was fantastic! The ground was completely covered with a white blanket of chickpea-sized hail. Then came the thunder and lightning. Never mind snow, that has got to be my event of the year (so far).
; but it's still good in any case.
Members' Opinions
in Space, Science & nature
Posted
With overwhelming supporting evidence from numerous experts,
it is time to act NOW.