dave48
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Posts posted by dave48
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Current situation in France (in French...)
Notes the supercell in progress in the NE and the MCS is the SW. Some images too.
Edit: Supercells, it has split
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Extended forecast from estofex for severe weather, France/UK/Low Countries/Germany/Denmark.
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We didn't do too bad the other night in West Kent, saw two storms, the first was distant flashing, no bolts. The second was closer, but again didn't actually see any bolts, but plenty of bright lightning flashes and some good rumbles of thunder, lasted for about 40 minutes.
Looking forward to the weekend, certainly some crackers over on the continent. Models suggest a decent chance of storms for us in Kent, but as usual, we will have to wait and see.
BBC ramping up the storm potential. But I have to say I would agree with the cautious sentiment of many on here. This will be the third 'plume' type set up for us in Kent this year and all have been uncertain up until the last minute.
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Thunderstorm here, lightning with thunder every minute or two.
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Frequent distant flashes here in Tunbridge Wells, just missed the best of it. Trees obscuring view east.
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Looking forward to this, a good week on the way for storm lovers, will be some crackers around.
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Met Office forecasting a few thundery showers across east midlands/east anglia/south east tomorrow.
NMM has CAPE values up to 1000 j/kg with temps of 29 and dewpoints of 16+
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Impressive temps and dew points already today.
26/18 at Stansted
25/18 at Luton
15+ dew points widely across area of potential and temps climbing well so CAPE should be there for anything that can get going.
Could be some fantastic photos today if anything does get going.
Best of luck to anyone hoping for a storm.
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Lively on the North East coast. Plenty of heavy showers with sferics mixed in.
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Not sure at all but I think I've just heard a rumble of VERY distant thunder...
EDIT: Definite thunder! No idea where it's coming from but 2 VERY deep rumbles!
Very strong radar signature over your location, looks like you have yourself an embedded Cb there!
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Very thundery feel here, temp 21, dp at 17.
While widespread thunderstorms was always a hope, I was expecting some more activity than we have seen, especially given the intense and repeated activity over France and the continent during the last couple of days.
I have to say I don't feel confident about tonight, but you never know. It certainly feels thundery...
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Storms are already initiating along the front in France (say around Bergerac south) heading pretty quickly N at the moment
Hadn't looked that far south, but yes you are right a good amount of activity down there already!
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NMM/Met Office in agreement on some high ppn rates in the south east this evening, indicative of possible thunderstorm activity.
Best chance yet I think. It has had a lovely humid feel all day here, dewpoints 14-17 across the south east/east anglia.
Still very cautious though, plume events often turn out different to the forecast. Good luck to all those hoping for a storm.
Edit: Current thinking on NMM is storms to kick off late evening in France and then drift northwards.
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Don't confuse the two - It was an MCS
Yes would agree with you on that
, as I said in the post 'it was a large MCS that hit Paris this morning'.Was just highlighting that the radar signature for it was complex. The report below notes the supercell features.
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Something about this makes me feel like it's not real or recent. The sun would have set a while ago in Paris, and it looks like the sun is low and in...the South East? I'm just a little sceptical...
It was going around on a few French forums today, seems to be genuine, it was a large MCS that hit Paris this morning. Here is the link:
http://www.infoclimat.fr/photolive-photos-meteo-161434-cellule-matinale.html#photo6
Edit: more detail here.
MCS/Supercell
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Lots of high based convection flooding in now.
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Good article/photos on the storms across central France today.
It also notes the MCS which has just formed in the Bay of Biscay and will track north east. WRF expects it to hit Kent/East Sussex at noon tomorrow. Whether it makes it that far or if there is anything more than a bit of rain left is another matter.
Edit: developed MCS stretching from Saint-Nazaire/Nantes down to northern Spain.
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A couple of storms in central France with cloud tops up to -60 now, with strong sferic returns on atd.
Not destined for us, but good to see the atmosphere down there is conducive as the plume heads north.
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Interesting plume set up, particularly for the south east, east anglia and southern parts of the UK over the next few days.
UKMO now on board forecasting temps of 24/25 in central London on Wednesday.
Cross model agreement on the warm air making it to the UK, with good ensemble support. This could still change though.
Any thunderstorms would likely be high based, so insolation is not an issue there. However there is some possibility for surface based potential on Wendesday.
In my experience, these set ups can end up panning out quite differently to even short term forecasts, so there could be a few surprises for those not currently expecting them.
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Thunderstorm now south of Leicester. Can hear closer sferics on the AM radio.
Looks to be heading my way
Looks like you are in a good place, the shear should keep it going, very jealous! Look forward to the report.
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Would agree that the next 24 hours will be interesting. Putting tonights risk aside for the moment, convection tomorrow afternoon will be well organised with the potential for a few supercells.
Supercell composite below shows the potential at 15z
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Pleasing signs here in Kent chaps...nice big jellyfish Ac borderline castellanus flowing in from the SSW and the last time I saw clouds like it there were big overnight storms :-D
Yes, was about to post the same up myself. Lots of middle level cloud streaming up from the south ahead of the CF. Tempted to set the alarm for early morning.
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A few thundery showers around tomorrow ahead of the approaching cold front, again affecting the midlands and the northern parts of England.
Worth looking out for if you live in those areas.
, as I said in the post 'it was a large MCS that hit Paris this morning'.
Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 23rd July 2013 onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted · Edited by dave48
I know this is the UK convective discussion but important to see that things to our south are going as planned, radar may be of interest to some.
Looking nice.