craig1uk
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Posts posted by craig1uk
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Yep, not great, is it anything to do with coverage / signals up there?
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Andy Gabrielson just drove through a very smashed up town, not good
http://216.131.81.11...rielson&uid=140
Edit, Mapleton IA
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Looks like Reeds underneath it on http://chase.tornadovideos.net/pages/full_screen
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Looks like things might be kicking off in OK,,
WOUS64 KWNS 082230
WOU8
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 108
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
535 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2011
TORNADO WATCH 108 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
KSC001-003-015-017-019-031-035-049-059-073-077-079-099-111-125-
133-139-173-191-205-207-090600-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0108.110408T2235Z-110409T0600Z/
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN ANDERSON BUTLER
CHASE CHAUTAUQUA COFFEY
COWLEY ELK FRANKLIN
GREENWOOD HARPER HARVEY
LABETTE LYON MONTGOMERY
NEOSHO OSAGE SEDGWICK
SUMNER WILSON WOODSON
OKC003-011-015-017-035-039-043-047-053-055-071-073-075-083-093-
103-105-113-117-119-147-149-151-153-090600-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0108.110408T2235Z-110409T0600Z/
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALFALFA BLAINE CADDO
CANADIAN CRAIG CUSTER
DEWEY GARFIELD GRANT
GREER KAY KINGFISHER
KIOWA LOGAN MAJOR
NOBLE NOWATA OSAGE
PAWNEE PAYNE WASHINGTON
WAonionsA WOODS WOODWARD
ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...TSA...TOP...
22.31 utc
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Yea, their twistadata page is good too, with the forecast soundings available via the same means
Also, spc just issued an MD for Georgia, might get to see an isolated supercell later on on sky sports ! REALLY wish I had 3d now
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MD issued for OK
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0371
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 PM CDT FRI APR 08 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL INTO NRN OK...S CNTRL KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 081926Z - 082100Z
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN NEXT HOUR OR SO AS CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF OK INTO FAR S-CNTRL KS. MAIN
THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM AND CAN BE
MAINTAINED.
WHILE A CAP IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FROM
DEVELOPING BENEATH LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGE NOW SHIFTING EWD INTO THE
OZARK MTNS...A WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE MIGRATING THROUGH SWLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW INTO WRN OK MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT...IN CONJUNCTION
WITH SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG N-S ORIENTED DRY LINE ACROSS WRN OK...TO
FOCUS DEEP LAYER ASCENT AND DEVELOP AN UPDRAFT OR TWO STRONG ENOUGH
TO BREAK THE CAP.
CONDITIONS APPEAR MOST FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION AROUND
21Z IN THE VICINITY OF KFSI. VIS SATELLITE SHOWED A DEVELOPING CU
FIELD ALONG THE RED RIVER TO NEAR KLTS TO NEAR KFSI. WHILE THIS
CONVECTION REMAINED SHALLOW AS OF 1830Z...MESOANALYSIS INDICATED
THAT MLCAPE VALUES HAD INCREASED TO AROUND 3000 J/KG AND THE CAP WAS
WEAKENING DUE TO SFC HEATING. SFC OBS INDICATED SIGNIFICANT WARMING
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
80S. DEWPOINTS WERE ALSO BEING MAINTAINED IN THE MID 60S ON SELY SFC
FLOW OF 10-15 KT. IN ADDITION TO THESE OBSERVATIONAL CLUES...HI-RES
MODELS /HRRR AND WRF-NMM/ HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
INITIATION LOCATION/TIMING. HOWEVER...AS STATED EARLY...MODELS ALSO
INDICATE A VERY CONDITIONAL THREAT WITH ONLY ONE OR TWO STORMS BEING
GENERATED. ANOTHER AREA OF POSSIBLE INITIATION COULD BE FURTHER N
TOWARD N-CNTRL OK CLOSER TO A W-E ORIENTED STATIONARY
BOUNDARY/MOISTURE GRADIENT WHICH IS ALSO SERVING AS AN AREA FOR WEAK
SFC CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER...THE CAP IS STRONGER HERE AND INSTABILITY
IS SOMEWHAT WEAKER. ADDITIONALLY...SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF CUMULUS
IN THIS REGION REMAINS POOR.
THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN OVERCOME THE CAP IS
EXPECTED TO BE LARGE HAIL WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5-8.5
C/KM. STRONG WIND GUSTS WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN SFC
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS OF AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES AND
RELATIVELY DRY MID LEVELS ABOVE SHALLOW MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.
..STOPPKOTTE.. 04/08/2011
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Thanks
, quite a fundamental point right there then :blush: -
Alot of storms have been just east of the plains so far this year, is this normal for this time of the season, and should we expect this trend to persist / work its way back west a bit later on?
Also, just noticed that spc are displaying zulu time in gmt still, does this mean that 00z tonight will be at 1am here?
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So when do we predict the season will start? Just been looking at previous virtual chase threads, and the 26th March looks common, so I'll go for that
Not too shabby a guess really, Mod risk, 8 'nados, still no closer to knowing the definition of the start of the season, would have thought they'd have thought one up along the lines of the monsoon season criteria ?
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Arizona baby !!!!!!! Can't wait
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news flash
they are predicting a highly active year for tornadoes
more on this story laters
Tease !!!!
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Hiya Dub, yea I suffer with hayfever every year at home but did'nt find it a problem at all on the chase last year
will still take tablets out there with me though as they help if you get the odd mozzie bite -
Bugger
How about a BIG periscope ?
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After my bust the other day sitting in Pine Bluff AR ,I think I'll position myself in SE OK, maybe Eagletown on fri and give myself options, Gfs has the bulk of the cape in LA, although there is no mention of this on the spc outlook, ( I'm new at this, I don't know why
), so I'll start there and see what transpires -
Craig you on T1..
and are you
going Cardiff?
thx info link also
no latest Twister reports so far today
2,600+ lightning CG's SO FAR
Hello mate, yea T1 ( 60 days to go
)Can't make Cardiff tho sadly, had a photography course booked since Sept for this Sat, sods law eh!
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Ahhh skew T's! Currently head down getting around these bad boys and think I've cracked it
EDIT: Just noticed on these soundings that the line is already drawn on them to find the LCL, LFC, EL, Cape and CIN? The faint black one?
Yea thats my understanding, makes it alot easier eh ! Still learning how to decipher them myself, currently working through a tutorial at Meted http://www.meted.ucar.edu/topics_convective.php if thats of any help to anyone ?
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Looking good today, if the cap is broken
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Severe studios live chase : http://www.severestudios.com/livechase
Tornado videos . net live chase map : http://chase.tornadovideos.net/pages/full_screen
Chaser tv : http://www.chasertv.com/
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Cheers Paul, that'll do it !
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Awsome, busy wkend ahead then! BTW, don't suppose anyone knows where I can find forcast skew t 's to look at, for say 24hrs ahead?
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Ok, my first stab a this, basing alot of my choice on GFS and not knowing the chase terrain whatsoever, I think I would kick around in Pine Bluff AR for a while and see what fires up, seems to be where the most insability is at @ 21z, and go from there
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Big MCS is something I'd really like to see, maybe experience a monster HP cell and a picturesque shelf cloud please, and for you Paul to reach the half century in the first ten days !
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Thanks for the info John and Paul, have been looking around for examples of lightning shots at different apetures to see how they vary, knowledge is power and all that, sooooo looking forward to putting it into practice soon !!
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Thats a great shot right there John, mind if I ask for the shot settings?
will still take tablets out there with me though as they help if you get the odd mozzie bite
), so I'll start there and see what transpires
Arizona Desert Monsoon Chasing
in Storm Chase USA
Posted
I can't think about it yet, the anticipation of tour 1 in the alley is enough to make me burst already, I really am spoiling myself this year
And Mr Fisherman, what a birthday thats going to be !! Looking forward to the celebrations