[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

  @northwestsnow Milf!!!???

[South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

Currently a balmy -7.4c

[South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Just now, Met4Cast said:

The majority were south of the UK with some into southern England.

Red lines show the position of the warm front across the 00z EPS suite. It'll be interesting to see this chart from the 12z run.

the gold line represents the boundary if i remember right  and the most likely scenario is i think along the M4 corridor, maybe a little further north or south.  the problem as i explained above is the split jet they dont know how its going to interact with the southern arm yet. writing off anything because of one run is ludicrous, if the experts are saying they dont know then anything can still happen.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

i wouldn't  worry to much at this time, if its still there on Sunday then that's that, even the met office are not sure of what's going to happen due to the split jet stream and how the low is going to interact with the southern arm.

Time to hold our nerve 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

5 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

That low is a smidge further south on the 12z...

those charts  remind me of Jan 6th 2010, i remember it vividly again everyone said it would be rain down south but here in Somerset i got around 8-9" snow 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

7 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Yes, drawn up by the on duty chief forecaster I believe.

Definitely a reason to feel more optimistic   

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

21 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Very, very good 06z. very very good day 4 FAX..

Can I assume the fax has some human input?

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

morning all, if im seeing this right its the Low off of the eastern side of Canada which is helping throw a ridge of high pressure up in front of it which in turn gives us some breathing room?? 

[South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

Light flurry’s here in Bath

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

4 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Technicality’s or not, that’s a SSW in my book

 

BFTP

I ask Marco yesterday about this being a major warming and he replied 

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

2 minutes ago, Joseph Hudson said:

pardon my ignorance what dose that mean  its that good or bad for  cold

Good

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

1 minute ago, AO- said:

T850 -20. Just unbelievable. 

 

I couldn't not share this with you. Enjoy. This is a very nice opportunity to see some severe cold.

This is where those temps are coming from.

todays lows in Finland 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

6 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Yes but we were also looking at “possibilities” back in 2018 also well in advance of the event that delivered to a few places only.

Looking at the met office data it delivered for more than a few places

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Just read this over on X, haven’t a scooby what it means except the Scandinavian bit

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

5 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

Damn

I’m assuming it’s a good Dam?

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Yaaaay another virtual cold blast 

one day we'll get this ripper down to T24

What number chase is this now?

im expecting the models to begin to jump from extreme to the next over the coming days/ week.

i hope like you said we can get it down to T0!

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

I think the words “slow burner” may feature in the coming week or so. Just need to confirm what’s happening up in the strat and how that’s going effect our weather going forward.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

4 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Whats happened to the vortex..?

 

 

It’s probably picking up on the warming 

@Liam Burge beat me to it

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Is it time yet??

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

If only we could get some amplification in the Atlantic it would be game on.

So much cold air to tap into .

 

 

thats assuming the ECM is correct.

one of 3 things is going to happen, either the Ecm is correct or its going to get dragged kicking and scream to the UKMO or GFS, or they all come to some middle ground solution

i cant figure out whats going to happen

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

1 minute ago, stewfox said:

Flight data?. Not heard that this Christmas must be due now ?

It will be along soon along with “west based, uppers, Bartlett, etc etc!

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

2 minutes ago, Newberryone said:

Well Met Eireann’s Farming forecast earlier at lunchtime with Joanna Donnelly for the week ahead including the Big Day itself made for very sobering viewing indeed. She was quite emphatic that it’s going to be a green Christmas stressing that there wasn’t anything remotely wintry on the horizon. Short of a miracle I don’t envisage a change to that wording when she reappears later on. 

I believe Met Éireann uses ECM data in there forecasts. Probably from last nights set. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Jesus I can’t keep up, more ups and downs than an Alton towers ride!!! 
 

a question for the more experienced ones out there, do you think the phasing issue are sorted now we  are getting closer or can we expect more drama?? 
 

I think may know but!

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

10 minutes ago, WYorksWeather said:

On the models this lunchtime, all I can say is 'oh dear'. My ramp last night must have jinxed it - sorry everyone. The strong signal has virtually disappeared for the south.

Further north, not much better.

Still definite chances in Scotland, though.

The only positive I can draw is that the scatter hasn't disappeared, so there's still enough there that it could change back to a more positive trend for those of us further south. But overall, this isn't what we want to see on the models.

 

There is so much scatter on those charts!

from +10 to -10c how anybody can say definitely say what is going happen is beyond my tiny little brain cell.