[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

3 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

The +VE EAMT causing a rise in AAM and potentially helping on the ground , is also helping the Stratosphere. The extension looks to push - VE heights across the south of the USA and hold the  - TNH pattern and weakens zonal possibilities. That also means that it's allowing multiple rounds of +VE heights to be pushed into the NE part of north America. That's a good sign for the Rossby wave to push into the stratosphere and at least displace the vortex. 

In Asia, the +VE Uralian ish heights development pushing north westwards after a pivot. Looking quite good for ground level developments as well. One for others to keep an eye on. This should contribute to a Wave-2 development in the stratosphere and as it comes closer on the forecasts, so does the likelihood of a reversal. 

Very Strat driving looking Trop here. 

Slight reversal on the forecasts already. 

So it’s not all doom and gloom as some are portraying, some signs to keep an eye on! And hopefully we will see this playing out in the models, soon I hope. 
we could all do with cheering up.! 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

1 minute ago, Day 10 said:

Anyone else seeing this?

It’s been on going all day, it got mentioned this morning 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Just now, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Interesting subtle change to the LP by ESB

 

Has it gone missing again?? I noticed this a little while ago, @Catacol I think bought this as well. One run it’s there and the next it not. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Above average temps predicted across the pond,  will this will weaken the jet due the lack of thermal gradient 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

1 minute ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

If this run was to come off….it would be historic.  This is leading to a total Atlantic lockdown 

 

BFTP

Could this be because the USA is trending warmer and the jet has no power?

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Just seen this posted!

Anybody want to hazard a guess if this is true or not?

 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

37 minutes ago, PiscesStar said:

Is that the Canadian one? 

I believe it is

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

A little bit of warming beginning to show now

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion]

Currently -2c and it’s raining! Freezing rain!!

 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion]

5 minutes ago, offerman said:

Sure is I took this photo earlier

I can still see spiderwebs that are frozen out there.

The other two photos are from this morning.

I also took some video footage of very fine fog flakes coming down

 

 

 

 

Looks nice, temps dropping fast now

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion]

Ice day here

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion]

Freezing fog has left a powder coating this morning, -3.2c looks very festive 

[Autumn & Winter 2023---2024 Stratospheric Polar Vortex. Events, Analysis, Discussions AND Outlooks]

26 minutes ago, Dennis said:

Big knocking at the Vortex and reversal signs in the strato

Hopefully there will be a QTR! 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

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[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

In the 15 years I ve been on here I’ve never been so hooked, will it slide, won’t it slide, east a bit west a bit! All I can say to any newbie on here is sit back and enjoy the ride! 
this is the modern day Battle of Britain. 
thanks to all for your input, keep it up
 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion]

clouds now melting away, high of just 2c,  i have a feeling its going to be a cold night!

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion]

So close!!

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion]

Current conditions, biting wind!!

a few snow grains earlier 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion]

Web cam of my home town, looks to be some good size flakes at present 

 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion]

Piddling it down here in frome! We do need it, seems to have developed around me! 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion]

Going by the met forecast for tomorrow, not looking great for us here in the southwest at present, currently looking like a a southeast and Eastern parts of the country in  favour for some rain and storms

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion]

Just got work in Bath and there is light snow falling.

 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion]

Just started to snow here now. Very light. 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion]

Temp here is rising 1.3c up from 0.5c  dew point -0.2 up from -1. Probably going to be rain or sleet at best! 

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

4 minutes ago, RhHh said:

Off topic perhaps but does anyone know if Punxatawny Phil saw a shadow yesterday?

He saw a shadow, 6 more weeks of winter