Cycles

Good point Chris. Yes it has been cool over North America including the Arctic, however it has been warm in other parts of the world...but we are not hearing that much news about drastic heat, seems to have died down. Believe everyone will agree the polar jet stream has migrated southward during the past year or so, although with fluctuations causing cool weather in some locations and warm or intermittent warmth in others. But all in all the jet has migrated southward, and this does make one wonder about the temperature reporting system, such as what happened with the Russian October data? The Antarctic gained in ice coverage and depth during their last winter and the Arctic was cool this past summer and very cold this winter. The only melting appears to be caused from the lag in the ocean currents cooling. Regards David

Makes perfect sense Roger. There is a lag in cooling down, just as there is warming up. Global warming took many years to peak, and due to the warmer oceans a lag of a year of 2 will likely be seen for cool down. This is likely why some areas of the northern and/or southern hemisphere are warm now, and some are cool. And the jet is sliding more south in some areas and taking a little longer in other areas. All in all we have not seen cold weather like this years since the 1990s, and some areas are looking like the 1970s. And yes, some areas are not cooling yet, but will as the winter progresses. The NOAA 3 month forecast (DEC-FEb) was calling for much above mean temperatures in the middle and southwest U.S., but so far it has been a very cold DEC in the mid portion of the U.S. Like you Roger, I feet there will be some lowered values in the GISS etc. once the December temps are averaged in. Regards David

The GISS report can be found at the web site http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2008/ Apparently 2008 is so far (still need to figure in a relatively cool December) among the 10 warmest years ....but it is very interesting to note that 2008 (so far) is actually the coolest year in 9 years dating back to the year 2000, and the coolest since 1994 in the United States. Coolest world wide temperatures since 2000, does this mean temperatures are coming off the second 8-9 year twin warm peak experienced during all global warming episodes? The first one during this global warming eipisode was from about 1930 to 1930, second from about 1999 to 2007. Figures so far in 2008 do not indicate an increase in warming, but instead the beginning of a cooling trend. My forecast (book and news release) indicated temperatures during 2008-09 returning to those experienced in the 1940s to 1970s. Which means we are in a cooling transition during the 2008-09 years, and that is exactly what is happening according to the data as temperatures are now the coolest since 2000 and in some cases 1994. Many record temperatures and early snowfalls recorded across the northern hemisphere this fall...and winter has not even begun.

Initial estimates of the 2008 average global temperature point to the year being the coolest in a decade that has produced most of the warmest weather on record. Based on observations through early December, the average global temperature should be close to 57.74 degrees Fahrenheit. That would make 2008 the coolest year since 1994, but a far warmer year than those prior to the industrial revolution. The hottest year on record was 1998, which included a very strong El Niño ocean warming in the Pacific, followed by 2005, 2003 and 2002. Britain’s Met Office predicted at the beginning of the year that 2008 would be cooler than recent years due to the La Niña ocean cooling that prevailed as the year began. But Peter Stott of the agency’s Hadley Center cautioned that a cooler year in no way means that global warming is slowing. “If we are going to understand climate change we need to look at long-term trends,” Stott said. In March, climatologists from Germany’s University of Kiel predicted that a natural variation will offset the 0.55 degrees Fahrenheit (0.32 degrees Celsius) of warming predicted for the next decade by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The team projected that global temperatures will remain virtually constant until 2015, then begin to climb at an increasing rate.

BFTP Yes the Polar jet has been somewhat all over the place during the fall and so far in December, but overall it is further south last year and even more so this year. Big full moon yesterday, closest approach since 1993 and with a high declination. David

BFTP I have not seen the PFJ for the UK, can you post it or provide the site? Having a computer problem with my program this weeks so I have not seen the very recent temps for Siberia. Very interesting winter so far. Here in Florida USA where I am we just had one of the coldest November's on record.

There is a very strong PFM occuring on the 12th of this month and during the end of the first week in January, these should be the kicker for initiating an El Nino. Things can change rapidly during that period. Regards David

Thank you for keeping up with the assessement Iceberg. Actually in post number 59 and 60 we agreed the SSTs would be increasing by late December, not that the El Nino would be in place. And keep an eye near Chile where SSTs are increasing rapidly, could be the forerunner indicating a change in winds further toward the equator later this month. Regards David

Hi Roger, Expect you are correct concerning a heat wave in portions of South America. Appears to be a battle ground around the world, some areas receiving record cold and other's heat waves. You see this happening during the spring and fall as the 2 seasons are in transition. Here in the States the east is having record cold, some areas 20 degree F below mean. For the second time in 2 weeks Florida is setting record cold. So we often see one area balancing out the other...above mean versus below mean. During an El Nino the jets do split with the polar jet intense and the subtropical jet pulling in moisture to the south. There are different formations in El Nino events, not all act the same. For instance...During some El Nino events northern California is very wet, but during other's they tend to have near normal (mean) precipitation. All depends on the Aleutian low and the polar jet. However, southern California is always wet during an El Nino event, this being due to the subtropical jet. Thus northern California is determined by the PFM cycles, all depends on if it is a cyclical dry year, or cyclical wet year. A cyclical wet year provides a wet El Nino, a cyclical dry year means a near mean precipitation year. So far NOAA and the Climate Prediciton Center shows the ONI Index to be near zero with neutral conditions. An El Nino often follows close behind 3 or 4 near zero readings (following negative La Nina ONI's). So this winter still bears watching as the PFM triggering cycles are at their optimum in November, December and January. Regards David

Here is a comparison graph for global temperatures from 1979 through October 2008. Click link (or copy and past) http://gallery.myff.org/gallery/380901/bigtemps.GIF Shown in thin lines are the monthly averages while the thick lines represent 12 months running averages. Red and orange are based on surface meteo station data as compiled by NASA (Hansen et al) and the British Met Office (HADCRU of Jones et al). Green and blue are two different products of the same satellite data series compiled by University of Alabama (Spencer et al) and Remote Sensor Systems (RSS). See how NASA creeps up, whereas Jones et al of the UK met office holds the midgrounds between Hansen and the two satellite temperature sets. Although the latter show differences in monthly values, both have a robust fit of the 12 months running mean (bold black). Data compiled by André andrebijkerk@yahoo.com on the Yahoo Forum Climate Sceptics] The current global temperatures sources used by http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcrut3/diagn...l/nh+sh/monthly ftp://ftp.ssmi.com/msu/monthly_time_serie...ocean_v03_2.txt http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/public/msu/t2lt/tltglhmam_5.2

You are so right Paul. The figures for 2008 are not even in yet, and it does take a couple years for a true trend. Regards David

Here's a plot of the Mean Jan-Oct surface temperature Anomaly. So far it shows (bottom right panel) 2008 to be cooler than the warm years of 2005 and 2007 ... a cooling trend

Good report and summary Iceberg. It is now commonly known the GISS data for October was very much in error, and this does make us wonder about data throughout the year. There has been record or near record early snowfalls in Hawaii, early low temperature readings in Alaska, Florida in the United States, and other early snow or temperature readings in other areas of the Northern Hemisphere, plus a near mean Arctic summer and record open water freeze in September and October. And, the United States has been near the long-term mean for all of 2008. We will likely need to digest all the data once 2008 has been completed and analyzed. Looking forward to future summaries Iceberg. Regards David

You are certainly welcome to post warm items on this forum John, we can be fair and balanced. It is also very noteworthy to post cold climate happenings that have not occured in 50 years or more...very relavent.

Interesting Autumn Weather Hawaii ... Mountain snowfall week of October 26, usually occurs late Novermber early Dec. Fairbanks Alaska USA...First Autumn day for not reaching freezing comes 5 days earlier than the long-term mean date. London.... Earliest snowfall since 1922 Florida USA .. Coldest October temperatures in 50 to 100 years, and second coldest since 1850. Burrrr

I re-read the article on "Earthweek". The article talked about Record Warm Autmumn in the Arctic....but quess what? If you dig deep into the article it talks about this past winter and summer and the Record Autumn Warmth was for 2007, not 2008. So it looks like this years autumn was not warm after all....sorry for the misleading article. Regards David

Question .. NOAA (see link) just released a statement indicating "Warmest Arctic Autumn on Record". Many forums have indicated rapid ice restoration in the Arctic during the Autumn...so my question is... How can we have exstensive ice recovery with record warmth? The report indicated well above mean water temperatures? http://www.earthweek.com/2008/ew081024/ew081024i.html

Thank you for clarifying Iceberg. The SSt's will increase by late December. Thank you for your patience. David

Iceberg, Yes I did say in my press release moderate to strong forming by Christmas, and I also said disrupting weather patterns during the winter (N. Hem) and summer (S.Hem) months, which indicates primarily Jan-Mar. I do expect SST's to reach temperatures associated with moderate El Nino events by late December to early January, although full impact with a mature phase may lag slightly... I also said it normally reaches Peru around Christmas. By normally it does not mean it will definitely be there by then, this is the climatological date.

With the exception of a typing error in what you call post number 392 which does not match 392, there is very little conflicting information. I checked my press release and it said an El Nino would form "in" December and more specifically late December. And the second conflict you talk about says it will not match "97,02,83 but will be strongest in 10 years. This was an obvious typo on the web post (in decending order 97,02,83 should of been 97,92,83, a typo error of 02 versus 92). My comment about SSts being correlated with the PFM cycles and that SSTs were somewhat limited during WWII era means.....the Nino 3.4 SSTs are only available from 1950 to present, I used other available SSTs prior to 1950 and thus extended the period of my research with SSTs back to 1920 and correlations to the PFM back to the 1910-1914 period. My comment in post 401 which talked about a brief El Nino and probably getting back toward a La Nina next winter ..... by next winter it means 2009-10 winter.

My press release in July and web site says moderate to strong El Nino forming "in December" (not by December). It also says it often reaches the Peru coast around Christmas time. Yes you are correct to say "will form in December and then peak as a moderate to strong El Nino".

It is likely in the infancy of formation now with the ONI reaching zero, it should reach +.05 during December. I just cannot pin the actual date for you Iceberg. The mature moderate phase would likely follow the .05.

Iceberg....by all means, keep the ENSO TEST1 going into January. NOAA uses a 3 month average or more (will get correct definition for El Nino) to determine if an El Nino has formed. Knowing the mechanism controlling ENSO formation, my forecast is for the beginning of an El Nino and thus bye-passes the 3-5 month averaging for determination.

Below is an attachment showing the ONI issued by NOAA for the period 1950 to Oct 2008. Note El Nino events normally form once the ONI increases to zero, it is currently at zero. oct2008oni.pdf