weatherobsuk

The Accumulated Snow-Depth on Snow-forecast.com for the next 4-6 days.

Some strong convective showers now lining the Easterly Coasts and making their way inland relatively intact, keeping a eye on the NW Radar to see just how far inland they make it before dissipating. The showers only south of Cambridge have anything with a wintry mix in them so-far though.

I dont think ive ever seen a Cold Duration thats been so undecided by the Models. Ive kept quiet as generally theyve been in agreement/disagreement all week as to what the next 2 weeks are going to bring. Myself personally still think this is a Stratospheric Warming Event trend starting, which would explain why so many of the models are struggling in agreement with the precip as the lower moisture in the airmass would limit its convective avaliability. However saying that, its too early to tell wether this cooling trend is simply a Easterly blast or a lowering of averages throughout this Winter. Many people will only see a bad winter in terms of Snowfall accumulations instead of temperature averaging and variations. The last SWE brought chaos across much of the South/Central UK last February with roads being closed due to ice, canals and reservoirs freezing up. This time it could be a more widespread impact.

I'd say places further West upstream of The Wash and Humber Estuaries will likely see Lake-Effect snow as the warmer SSTs enhance moisture coming in off the North Sea (especially later on during this colder period as the North Sea SST temps begin to lower.) Anyone in the Pennine regions who is West of the Humber would do good to look out for Streaming effects.

So the GFS is confident this event is purely Airmass influenced and not a trend towards something like a S.W.E we saw in February earlier this year? I dont want to knee-jerk everytime we get Easterlies now and say there possible S.W.E events, but the thought is always there, as data-wise we wont really know it truly is until after the event has occured.

NW Radar showing Sleet here, however looking out the window theres not even any drizzle outside. If anything does start to turn wintry in the next few hours though I'll keep you all posted. Heaviest of the PPN looks to be to the North and South of here anyway, the "Shield" must have been activated tonight unusually.

Morning all. Min temps last night brought the village and Buxton both equally down to -4.7'c overnight, with it now just below freezing at -0.1'c at 10.34am. Significant ground frost on the tops of the hills with them looking like they had a dusting of snow rather than frost overnight (but I know better than to be fooled.) Looking forward to the pre-frontal activity later as it digs into this lower cold air.

Temp hovering just above freezing here at 0.1'c from 3.0'c at 5pm, continues to drop as the ground is starting to freeze outside.

BBC did give hints of wintry Precip on the backedge of this Front, although being on the frontal boundary Im guessing its most likely downdraughs from convective gusts bringing down cooler air aloft to ground level.

Just had the squall pass here North of Buxton, Wasnt really too eventful, just some moderate rain with the occasional gust accompanying it. Its hit and miss for many areas so I wasnt too disappointed I didnt get to see much, at least I'll get to see the temperature change in the coming few minutes and passing hour. Keeping a eye on the NW Radar and reports anyway. Bow-Line and LEWP signatures are still around with this Front.

Some inbounds to DUB (EIDW) reporting turbulence around FL150, aswell as stong gusts in/around the airfield. Makes for good listening on the Liveatc site. I'd expect as the Front develops even more some of the medium-higher routes may be affected briefly by upper air turbulence. Right now it seems the area in question is from 5000ft-15000ft.

Its a shame the BBC have got their facts wrong about the SLW damage in Derby being Tornadic Damage, one forecast I saw earlier even referring to yesterdays event being "sometime last week" I'd say 70mph is good estimates by the MetO however, CAPE values arent high but the factor with tonights Front is Forcing rather than Convective inhibition, although there will be convective cells embedded within the Squall and accompanying SLW with possible FC/TN activity to suite. Depending on Cloud Cooling heights Sferic activity will also be a likely threat with some hail and CG activity as the Front enters higher terrain to the Central areas of England and Wales.

The 1255 core is the most likely candidate imo, its had time to at least get *some* rotational characteristics to it before it dissipates before getting to Nottingham.

I'll be (hopefully) doing a onsite investigation tomorrow morning to assess the damage, although by the reports it seems the Tarpaulins will already be up to stem the rainfall so any evident damage to masonry will be hard to spot. At the time this event occured there was significant inflow/outflow from a T-Boundary which was seperate from the Developing low to its North, this brought intense ppn to this part of Derbyshire for some 10-20 minutes as it was convectivally allowed to develop by itself. Assessing wether this was Tornadic or SLW should be relatively easy once confirmation is found by damage on the ground. Until then we only have the radar signatures to go by.

From 11am-1pm it has been eerily Dark here in South Manchester as this developing Low has been crossing East, bringing light-moderate rain. But as it must be moisture packed its blocked out any avaliable sunlight casting a twilight-like atmosphere for the past couple of hours. All the houses in the street have had their lights on, although the street-lights didnt. I believe that they came on in Sheffield though. Even now a second batch of precipitation from this Low is developing and bringing yet more rain. TORRO got their warning box about 70 miles too far south, although they were correct on the developing Low-Waves Forecast.

More Convective activity into the early hours with a S-Signature North of Bournemouth, some high ppn totals around Southampton and Portsmouth aswell as Sferic activity ongoing around South/Central Wales. The band of Multicells are looking to just miss Cornwall now, on-track to hit Brest in France instead, some Sferics from this region also coming up on the NW radar.

The band heading into Cumbria is now Sferically active, and looking at the Sat24 loop theres a huge compact area that looks like a Multicell cluster heading towards Cornwall/Southern England rapidly from the South Irish Coast

Looks like a area of ppn sliding in between Anglesea and the I-O-M, luckily the past few frames have it dying off somewhat and theres no Sferics attached to this particular part of the trough, however its out in Open Water again and has some 35 minutes before hitting St Bee's Head. I'd imagine the Environment Agency is already keeping tabs on this.

tthis trough kicked up by the warm irish sea, and the topography means theres a lot of it from I-O-M to the Cumbrian coast for it to pick up moisture. not great for the rescue efforts and certainly not needed at this time. Im afraid Cumbria may be in for a deluge in the coming hour or two if it continues on the path its taking.

That BBC presenter was a waste of time.."oh its not a big deal, theres only going to be a bit of rain tomorrow so everything will be good as new again"...idiots.

Capel Curig recorded a gust of 86mph just now, from sustained winds of 52mph. Most Likely a error but I thought i'd report that incase it turned out to be actual. Marathon in the Southern Irish Sea also reporting sustained winds over 60mph recently also at 4pm.

The GFS had a area of developing winds out into the Southern North Sea by midnight, transitioning across to the Netherlands by 3am and then heading NE towards South Norway by early Weds Morning. Had the system been 6 hours earlier this same windfield would be developing around the Isle of Wight, heading up to London.

Given the newest Visibile Meto Satellite image, I'm wondering how much of a pronounced effect the Dry-Air intrusion overnight has had on this system, its obvious from a structural point of view that the Low's centre hasnt filled in, and that the introduction of the Dry-Slot from yesterday evening is only going to increase the wind gradient further for today in the SW.

Culdrose now up to 75mph gusts aswell.

Some of the higher wind readings are now coming out, following along the line of the Trough Axis from South-West Wales to Lands End. Mainly in the region of up to 62mph however outside of these readings the stronger gust is also likely.