Andy_

another day of stunning model output today, i'm starting to allow myself to get excited by the amount of support and sheer ferosity of some of these charts showing up. the +192 - +240 period on the ECM is simply amazing, and would definitly give a severe weather event for the UK. the gfs parrellel also has cold air reaching us by +72, and lasting till the end of the run - which could lead to a major freeze up. gfs is also impressive with massive snow potential for the bulk of the UK around the 16th onwards http://charts.netwea...ctypeuktopo.png http://charts.netwea...ctypeuktopo.png significantly the gfs has had the cold spell around this period for ages now, and shows major consistency in its run - and in the parralel. think it will be pretty certain what the outcome will be by this weekend people as in the fine details, then its game on people its pretty much game on imo now, i've never seen so much support - i am only 16 tho so prove me wrong ha

the best part about this -predicted- cold spell of weather is the comparison to this years easterly in february, http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2009/Rrea00220090202.gif notice the lack of 'mega' cold in europe compared to the +192 GFS http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20091207/12/192/h850t850eu.png in my opinion i would take this easterly over the feb '09 one as it could be more influential later on after the initial blast, whereas in feb '09 after a northerly later on that was pretty much it. i knoww this is still in f.i, but the difference is sooo much better in the +192 GFS even if it doesnt show that extent of -10 upper air reaching the country ( i realise it does to southern england later in the run - but i'm more concerned about my doorstep lmao). Also in the case of the 12Z GFS the cold will stick around for much longer - especially in europe - where tiny significant changes in the position of high pressure could more cold our way, and the low pressure systems which could affect the very southern edge of europe on that southerly jet makeing for a veryy attractive situation with huge snowfalls for the majority of the country if everything goes right. yess f.i i know but still, with all the major models on board, the ECM 12Z today and yesterday have been awesome, along with the UKMO. and the JMA doesn't count ha its a nobody

eventually i understand what a shortwave is lmao although i dont understand the views of some people on this forum saying we have seen more of them in the so called 'christmas pudding', i mean can more warmth in the atmospehere really affect isobars? :s anyways onto the models, a rather similar UKMO to yesterday - i.e. the high being favourable for us at +144, and the met office outlook sounding promosing at the least - imo they must have good confidence in the output to add this informtation into their outlook ECM is unispiring, i would like to think its just a flaw but we will have to wait for the 12Z, and of course the GFS 6Z is great I'm hopeing to see a bit more insight into what the situation for us is going to be around the dates 16th-19th and so on - don't wanna be heading anymore deep into FI after that, accuweather seem to be for the idea of cold with snow being forecasted around these dates, i don't know which model they use for there forecasts however. And i would just like to add this little quote from the met office in their outlook, "The cold but mainly settled theme is likely to continue through next weekend and the start of the following week, although showers in the north and east are likely to turn increasingly wintry" <<< nice

Monday 14th Dec0°c5°c5mm35%0%Tuesday 15th Dec0°c5°c2mm60%10%Wednesday 16th Dec0°c4°c1mm60%0% Ah the return of the snow risk on the 10 day forecast. If only i wasn't pessimistic enough to beleive this..., however i won't get shouted at on here so RAMP

areet cheers appreciate it

yeh the parralell run once again comes up with them dream sypnoptics i think this thread would be even busier than it is now if it had replaced the current GFS now, quick question, could someone explain what an inversion is? oh and a shortwave? sorry am still learning haha

the 18Z is not exactly a write off for cold and i would definitly be happy with the evolution if it turned out, december '08 was a frosty month as such so wouldnt mind them syptoptics again its a tad annoying to see all the cold go to my relatives in italy though... when they get an amazing summer and then snow to top that off ha. at the end of the run the cold tends to disappear to the north which is discouraging but the jet is farrr south on that run - and note less powerful!, so in essence the 18Z is a good run imo and i wouldn't mind at all if it was a trend setter.

Nice to see some agreement on the GFS, UKMO and ECM on the 12Z runs - differences obviously but they all lead to interesting sypnoptics eventually . only thing i would say about the 12Z GFS operational run is that for Moscow, Bern etc it is shown as a warm outlier, meaning that the run might be progging the cold a bit TOO far west. Nevertheless i've read enough on this thread to suggest that the ensembles are'nt too important atm, and we are still looking for trends as it is F.I after all. I reeealy don't wanna get myself excited though too many times the models have let us down , but the models have been hinting this for ages now so maybe we are really in for something special . Anyways, we shall see what the 18Z GFS throws up.

Areet may as well have a stab at it aha :unsure: December - Starting off with a brief cool spell, this will continue with a zonal/cool setup for first 2 weeks, all change at mid-month with high pressure asserting itself from scandinavia, maybe a brief easterly with some snow showers for eastern countys, if this setup continues a white christmas could be favoured with very cold air nearby and a chance to extend itself to the U.K via the scandanavian high. End of month will introduce another pattern change with the high moving away and maybe a storm joining the fading cold air to give a big snowfall come 30-31st of December. January - The cold will stick around for a bit maybe lasting till the 2nd, however once the storm has moved through, mild westerly/south westerly winds will dominate for a while with low pressure systems attacking the british isles once again, however i dont expect this to last to long and i think an azores high will affect us during mid january giving us dry weather but a quite mild feel to things. The end of the month brings another low pressure dominated spell, with el nino really asserting itself with a strong jet stream over the U.K. Temperatures in this period reaching 14-15 degrees in southern areas, 9-10 further north. February - A mild start as low pressure continues but is see a major pattern change with very high pressure over greenland (perhaps 1040-1050mb) bring a very cold spell, with bitter cold winds and lots of snow for the bulk of the U.K, i think this could last about 1-2 weeks from start 2nd week of feb to start of 4th week. Temperatures in some places will barely reach 0, and in Scotland temperatures could drop as low as -14 on clear nights, then things will tend to move towards average at the end of the month with high pressure directly over the U.K - giving dry days with slight frosts at night - prolonging the snow cover in areas until a mild/wet spell in march will warm things up. Summing up a Cold second half of december and Very Cold mid February. With mild spells early December and the bulk of January.

sorry picture wouldnt attach here it is :blush:

i was only in cockermouth the other week, really shocked when i saw this picture remember walking past that national trust shop truely devasting really, and i watched that radar yesterday the precipitation it was stuck over the same area all day, could have been hit here too if it was a few more miles east, we just missed out luckily, and the forecast doesnt look too promosing more rain expected in the north west tomorrow

two flashes of lightening with thunder here, torrential rain but seems to have calmed now a bit, ooo fork of lightening as i type haha niceee, rather unexpected this to be honest, after freezing standing waiting to do the great north bike ride at seahouses yesterday morning

sky to the east has went to a very dark yellow colour now, looks like a proper storm out there lol, just beginning to rain now :lol:

just seen a very impressive fork of lightening to my east, gone proper dark now within 5 minutes

tomorrows rainfall totals look rather worrying for my area, hopefully there'll be some sort of thunder/lightning involved to spice up the endless rain like ahah on that note, loud crack of thunder just heard :lol:

my skys went off too, thunder being heard here and its went very very dark lol the rain is torrential edit: biggg flash of lightening there haha

thunder and lightening in jarrow again... loud thunder heard and flashes of lightening :lol: wooo haa

massive massive fork of lightening directly near my house there, thunder was exactly at the same time too. you really cant get any closer than that like

lightening still keeping up, rain increasing again as you say geordie snow haha its weird cos im only down the road from you as im in hebburn at the minute on victoria road

just saw massive cloud to ground lightening :| i stand corrected geordiesnow haha edit: and again lol haha, i was looking the wrong way

rain is absoloutly torrential here :lol: thunder is proper loud lmao, yet to see any lightening though

starting to hear thunder now like, canny beasty cloud is not too far away - to use the correct term lmao :lol: shouldn't be too hard to catch a shower today like, 24-27 degrees and dewpoint 21 degrees, also more of a south or westerly breeze it keeps changing haha

thunder storms are to the west of me, looks unbeleivable on the StikeStar thingy lol. Can see them not far away too looks very dark over to the west. really hopeing for something, the north east is actually pathetic for storms

snow stopped at about half 4 then there was drizzle for a couple of hours which has made little or no impact on the lying snow thankfully just goes to show that the met office were wrong again, the woman doing the weather on itv mentioned how it was more than expected lol. anyways hopefully it will all freeze by the morning

too right mate, sick of all them southeners with their snow. was our turn today like, no doubt it wasnt bigged up by the bbc as a big event as their so biased towards the south lol. met office still forecasting for heavy snow at 18:00 the radar looks decent for at least another hour or two hopefully