Shandiman

Mondy, point taken. It is a shame when we cover nearly a quarter of the UK landmass and cannot be split down into regions like england.

Sorry about last post. not trying to write christmas pudding, but without using the persons name on here the system will not let me write his cliche instead. Hope this comes out right this time. by the way it didn't.

One small thing i have noticed on looking at other Cold Weather threads, is that a certain person who has been blowing his 'christmas pudding' trumpet about this winter has not even dared show his face on any of them!!! Wonder what his 'christmas pudding' winter says about what is happening at the moment . Sorry to digress slightly

Scotland is classed as a region, which sucks. This was discussed on last years winter forum, but we don't have the powers to get them on high to change it, which sucks more

You do have a point there. However looking at the warnings for the south-east they have increased both in size and level, so we never know

That wil do me fine for the monday drive into the Roodlea Golf Course area . I know last year gtting from my place thru towards Ayr it was a tad slippery thru there . my 2 kids just want to see lots of the white stuff (as well as me ) 12z rn is still looking good from friday night onwards right thru the weekend, so anticipating a good weekend all in all. Edit; Just had a look at MetO website and a weather advisory has been issued for the Strathclyde area for Heavy Snow on Sunday, but only covers Argyll & Bute, N Ayrshire and South Ayrshire at the moment!!!

Answer to Question posed by P3; we can never have enough data to explore the possibilities of what the future may present. All I am saying is that data that has been gathered from many different sources where the climate fluctuations are recorded up to the start of the Industrial Revolution, show what mother nature has done to keep with the ebb & flow of minor influences over the climate. The Industrial Revolution threw this into total disarray, and even now we are still trying to work out the long term effects of our 'waste products' having on the climate. Nature is trying to balance out our effects so that we can all live on this lovely inhabitable planet. Once scientists, and others, are able to work out these effects, we may have a better understanding of how to interpret readings from before this event, to later readings and the increased amount of data that we are now able to gather. Is it GW or GC? Who knows, however I feel that there is a possibility of several short periods (around 5-10 years) of GC (or should I say lower average temperatures than the static 30 year average) over the next 100 years or so. But there may be a very slight increase of average temperature, say +0.1 to +0.2 degrees C. In other words, fluctuations may start to appear more exagerated over this time period (not that any of us will be here to report this after 100 years ).

Could I interject with something here. The graphs that BFTP has shown are very revealing, and a credit to how history can show us many things, but these are slightly flawed . If the Industrial Revolution had not happened, yes we would not be here with PC's and still be communicating with quills, parchment and pigeons !!! but we would have a much easier task of working out whether GW or GC was more likely to happen. This feat of human thinking was able to not only increase our chances of survival, but well and truly upset Mother Nature's balance. This may be a factor that not very many analysts and computers are thinking about (shoot me now if I am talking out the wrong end of my anatomy ). No-one has an accurate way of predicting what the worlds' climate is doing, or what it will do in the future (as we have been able to determine). All we can do is look at the most recent data and perhaps use the rolling 30 year average (for example) to help in working out what may come to pass. Perhaps looking at the recent past (last 50 years or so) may help in looking to the future.

Could I throw another tangent on the whole AGW topic? As I stated last year when the Winter Forecast competition was run (any chance of the same again this year???? ) I tend to use Mother Nature herself to predict the weather longer term. I have only been in Scotland for a couple of years, but even listening to the locals round about my location have noticed changes in the plant and wildlife activity over the last 10 years. More specifically certain types of trees/shrubs coming into flower and then going to seed about a month before they would normally go through this change, and wildlife cycles going through similar changes in regards to hunting and storing food away for hibernation. I believe that we are perhaps starting a GC of sorts, but it depends on how far GC will go. Even with the best sources of information and the best technology available, how can GC be accurately plotted? Now, I am not following these threads as avidly as alot of people (apologies ), but I am reading up on them as often as I can. I believe everyone is entitled to their opinions on GW or AGW based on whatever facts and figures they have access to. I agree that more data made available would help with predictions and if there are firm, positive results from this to support GW or AGW then those people should feel free to digress and make available their results for all to see. However, when you look at the last few months with the natural forces acting on the UK, it has been noticed that the weather has been a little on the topsy turvey side. Now El-Nino has obviously had some sort of an effect on this, but closer to home, the amount of ice melt from the Ice Corridor between Newfoundland and Canada has directly affected the Gulf Stream and shifted it a good few hundred miles south from its normal flow. If we have alot morepolar Ice Melt from the same area, perhaps we could be looking at a more localised GC and (at least for a short term period) we could have a mean temperature that reduces quite significantly ! I am not saying that this is what is happening, and that this is a foregone conclusion of what will happen, only an opinion that I have come to with Mother Nature as my prediction tool .

Meto Flash Warning; Issued 1703hrs Monday Feb 2nd 2009. Reads much as dexters post. Hope it throws it down. Kids are doing my head in

Let us all pray to that

Afternoon all. Wow. I cannot believe how the rest of the country can come to a standstill with only a few inches of snow. Drove into Glasgow (work) this morning and had a few inches on the M77. Then come homw early around dinnertime and the M-way was down to one lane each way with heavy snow. As I got to Glaston, the snowcover had all but disappeared. However, looking very dark over to towards Lanarkshire and we have some light snow flakes falling. Looking good for tonight, although I hope the missus gets home from her work before it hits

Nick, I think you are being over generous in your timescale. Give it a day and there would be 40 pages

:lol: :lol: Well, Mother Nature is the one thing that Humankind cannot control, only influence. We can only do our best at forecasting with whatever methods we use, and hope that we can get somewhere close to what actually happens :wacko: !

It will be nice to see if other forum members have views on all the alternative winter forecasts including The Watchers Official Forecast. It looks like all the forecasts have been right so far, although we do have another 2 and a Half months to go :winky:

Pretty much so. The spells of milder weather will noticibly bring in average temps, but only for short periods. The precipitation will also increase to near, or above, average. However this will be more in the shape of heavy sporadic downpours rather than steady rain. With the amount of action from the beloved Red Squirrels (oh, and their threateningly horrible American cousins, the Grey ones) this is suggested, so that they can look for their food stores!!

As the Competition to write the Alternative Winter Forecast has now finished, and I didn't receive enough votes to win (Last place, in fact), I am now about to write my Alternative Winter '08 Forecast. This forecast is based on Nature and what signs have been presented this year. These signs can vary from the migratory pattern of birds to when the first berries started to show on plants. These signs will be explained at the end of the forecast. Overall Forecast for the seasonal period of Winter (Dec '08 to March 1st '09). Overall, the weather for the UK for Winter '08/'09 will be largely below the rolling average (by up to -0.4oC),more than being predicted by the Climate Forecast System elsewhere here on Netweather. Precipitation will be around, or slightly above the rolling average, but as we approach the end of the season, this will drop. In more detail, large parts of the UK & Ireland will be looking to experience a colder, but slightly drier winter than last year. However there will be short periods, up to 7 days long, of milder, and significantly wetter weather. In the colder spells there will be an increased risk of Snow that will last up to a few days at a time before milder conditions come in to take over for a short while. No single area is going to be immune from this shift in pattern this year, however (as always) the most significant areas that will be likely to see Snow is going to be more the coastal regions, leaving the heart of the country (i.e. The Midlands and surrounding Counties) will have less risk. The cold spells are likely to send temperatures during the day to around freezing, and overnight down to around -8/-10oC in the North and -4/-5oC in the South in the Town/City Centres. Rural/exposed/Coastal areas could expect to see these temperatures to be around a degree or so cooler when the cold weather sets in. The milder spells are likely to see temperatures in the day to be around 5-7oC in the North, and 7-8oC in the South, with night temperatures ranging from -3/-1oC in the North to +1/+3oC in the South (Again in the Town/City Centres). Now, with February's ending, the weather is going to make a subtle shift towards wetter & milder conditions. However the risk of a late cold snap cannot be ruled out as late as the middle of April, but this is more likely to happen in early March. The Natures' pointers have been many, and have been observed from across the country (as my family have friends on the South Coast), as well as here in East Ayrshire. Firstly, the migration of the seasonal birds has been erratic, but some seasonal visitors started to leave our shores as early as August. The Last of these left around Late October, and included a Bird from Scandinavia that stripped every plant that had berries on within days. Following the Birds (and coming closer to home), the more common garden birds have been eating us out of house & home. At least twice a day the three Nut Feeders are being filled/re-filled (2 of these are Mug sized in diameter, and twice the height of a Mug). Also, there has been a Peregrine Falcon seen (very Close up) in our local area and has been seen hunting successfully. This is a rarety up here as they are not supposed to venture 15 odd miles inland!! The action of the plantlife has been more gradual, but started their Autumn earlier than last year, although through October the moisture-loving plants (like Rhododendrons) did try to flower again, and were caught out by the first 'cold snap' we had a couple of weeks ago and have now stopped! The grass stopped growing late September, which was the last time I cut my lawn, when normally grass cutting carries on well into October, and the leaves on the plants started to turn around the same time. Some people would look up and say this is normal for the trees, but I am also encompassing shrubs and bushes in this. There are probably many more indicators in nature, but I have not included them here as this could turn into a book otherwise. Any comments/opinions are always welcome, and with these there may well be a revision in the New Year! Lets see what Winter brings

I would like to know what planet these newspaper-associated forecasters inhabit? How on earth can we have a winter this year as 'predicted' in September? Even the historical models, along with current model outputs viewed to the extremes, cannot possibly produce this type of catastrophic event surely B) ! All I can say is, wait for the Official Alternative Forecast, and the forecasts that are produced by the finalists of the recent Alternative Forecast competition and see who gets closest Why publicise a single forecast in a National Tabloid and possibly risk your credibility????

TWS, with reference to your looking for evidence, take a look skywards on a relatively cloud free day!! Going on with the thought from Jethro (and winston), when certain 'people' decided to do a darstardly thing on Sept 9th in America, obviously all air travel was cancelled for a short while. Not so long ago, there was a documentary shown which showed what happened when there was no air travel. This showed that the day before (Sept 8th) the air temp was 'x' and the ground temp was 'y' (Sorry about being vague but i cannot remember all specific details ). The day after (Sept 10th) the 'x' & 'y' temperatures increased dramatically, not by full degrees but significant nevertheless. By the time air travel was resumed it was found that in some areas of the world the whole atmosphere had changed & warmed quite dramatically. Once air travel had resumed the figures had reduced back to (in the documantarys' words) normal levels. I take it they would be referring to the pre-event data readings. This showed that aircraft have an active effect on the climate & weather due to the amount of Vapour trails that they leave on a journey by journey scale. Perhaps this is the most visual of humans' impact on our climate, but we don't widely realise it?

Thanks guys for your responses. I must admit that after reading 90% of all the posts on this there have been very heated periods (sorry for the pun, not intended ), and largely there has been a point behind each post. However, if we all got back to the basics and looked at the two different scenarios we are presented with, then we all (no matter how experienced we are) concentrate on making better predictions on how the world, and the UK in particular, can handle what the weather can throw at us. Gray Wolf, you have hit the nail on the head. There is no debate on this issue, only how is it going to affect each one of us, and our children if we do not do something positive about it now. We all know the many different types of weather that occur, but not always on home soil, and how the different nations handle them. Perhaps we can learn frm the other countries and better prepare for the weather that we do not see on a daily/ weekly/seasonal average. Look at how different parts of the UK manage with snowfall (oops, i mentioned the 'S' word ). In south-West Scotland, we had a period from January 3rd to the beginning of February where we had snowfall on each Thursday. The most being up to 9 inches in places near to the end of January, and all the roads were kept open and relatively free-flowing. Now the year before on the South Coast, only a couple of inches fell and the majority of the road network came to a halt! If these variances on management (and common sense) happen when a bit of the white stuff falls, what would happen if it suddenly disappeared and we all lived in Deserts? Or if it was the white stuff came down most of the Year? I did say with my first post, that i believed that this country was starting a GC. I do still believe this (butthen it is probably because I love the White Stuff :o ) but I am always open to other peoples point of view.

I think all the threads have been very informative from all, and many have been able to spread the train of thought over the global condition (especially for me, being a newcomer to the meterologist science and looking to learn alot B) ). Now, i think that the debate has gone to the level where it should be, in that climate change is affecting the world, and that we need to look at what we have done so far to effect the climate is going to change it for the future and what us as the dominant force can do to stop the change going out of control. There are those of us (me included) that feel that for the UK we may be heading down the temperature slope, and those who feel we are climbing it! It all depends on what sets of data and scientific results people look at that can influence an individuals' opinion. We cannot escape the facts that the UK in particular is going through a large-scale change in how it appears and the types of weather it endures. Yes it is a worry being quite densely populated and only being an island, and it should be a concern to each and every one of us, but i realise as well that, in order to help Mother Nature persue her natural course, we all need to be respectful to what the weather can throw at us and try to do as much as possible to reuce the impact we have on the climatic changes. Whether we can have an 'immediate' impact on climate change is, again, up to the individual, but many of the worlds' stories of exteme weather can probably be put down to either Global Warming or Global Cooling (opinions?) One thing though, several years ago the likes of Hollywood and the like (bear with me on this train of thought!) were pushing out films related to weather phenomenon caused by Global Warming, now they are pushing out films that relate to phenomenon due to Global Cooling. Where are they getting these notions from, and how accurate are they? Yes, I know they were all based in or around the great country of America, but surely there must be a grain of 'something' in their productions perhaps????? If I am going off track on this totally, I apologise and would be most grateful if someone could help me out with data charts/historical models/insights into the art of prediction

Sorry I have not been around for the last few days, but this has taken on a whole new perspective from the previous lines of discussion. I do agree with you Gray-Wolf, and it was only on Saturday last that I heard on local radio, a meterologist (sorry if I have mis-spelt!) saying that up here in Scotland (I am broad English by the way, just got back to my roots!!) the statistical data that has been recorded over the last few years is starting to show a slight cooling. Now this is not by much, but by a few tenth's of a degree over the last 5 years. Also, it has been shown that the Atlantic conveyor belt has started to shut down. The salinity content has decreased by up to 70% since the late 1970's. Now, yes I do believe that the Human race is having a big effect on the Global weather structure, and that is why we are seeing more extremes of weather. I also realise that volcanic activity can also have a very profound effect on the global climate very quickly, that can last for up to a couple of hundred years. But if there is a 'cooling' effect, even of only 1/2 to 1 degree, then this will have a profound effect on many things we take for granted. We have had many good summers and some rather mild winters, but as the latest winter 2008 model output shows, this year may see more in the way of 'cold snaps' than last year, therefore resulting in a cooler winter than last year. Howeevr I know that the forecast is still indicating a warmer than average winter compared to the 1971-2000 model average, but it might be interesting to see how many winters (and summers) have been warmer, and by how much. Also by comparing these results to what the scientists have found in their research, perhaps we all might be able to better plan and anticipate what Mother Nature has in store for us. (By the way, the vast majority of Ayrshire, Dumfries & Galloway and the South West of Scotland was flooded out on Thursday Night & Friday, took nearly 24 hours for the floodwater to recede!)

I apologise if this has been debated about before, but as i am a new member to this (thanks to my workplace!!) i wonder (and it is not just because of recent programmes on the satellite channels either!!) if a number of people may be looking at 'Global Warming@ in the wrong context. The reason I say this, is because I remember some 20 odd years ago, picking up a National Geographic book in a Dentists' Surgery and on the cover was the headline similar to 'Is Global Warming going to cool us down.' I know that a there have been a number of programmes broadcast over the last few years that have been taking this on and giving us their (hopefully) positive results showing that Global Cooling could be the effect of Global Warming. Whether this is true, I cannot say, but their results and the way they obtain them show that all these tests/trials (or whatever they wish to call them) seem to come out with the same data, that we could be on the brink of another mini Ice Age and that the way that modern man has advanced over it's time on earth suggests that we are only advancing the inevitable. The last mini Ice Age was just over 13000 years ago, and there is a pattern that suggests that this happens on a very regular basis. If natural Global Warming causes this to happen, then what are we doing to our future by our actions? We cannot control the weather. We cannot control Mother Nature (to a greater or lesser degree), but we are helping her accelerate perhaps what does occur naturally. By the way, When i read that NatGeo article (over a number of pages), I believed then that we may be heading for a cooling down, and with the statistics that are available, I still believe we are heading for a cooling. There are many who believe that we will carr on warming up, but there are an increasing number of people who now believe we may be starting to cool down, with more extremes of weather showing up. What does the forum think?