[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

The Model thread this morning......there are too many people who think that weather comes down to one season......winter. They disappear  when snow and cold prospects disappear as well.  Why? Some even lurk without actually posting anything the rest of the year. Why? 

They give all this technical  analysis all during the winter season, why don't they do it all year around?  Do they do it to get as many like as possible? There is no such thing as the "closed season" when it comes to the weather.

 

It’s descended into parody today, unreadable garbage. Should call it the hunt for likes 

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

Saw 20 new pages on the MAD thread, scrolled to the end and they are chasing charts 10 days away again. And in 10 days, it will be in another 10 days. ‘Twas ever thus

at least with some HP it will dry out and hopefully it’s a sunny HP not a gray clag filled one 

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

24 minutes ago, Methuselah said:

And today at MAD Thread Central:   

lol, the highs are high , lets hope this afternoon isnt 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Winter is coming coldies snow showers by the weekend, cold and frosty, then the Arctic is coming 

Please dont do it to yourselves ! .. its one run, will all change by 6pm

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

See a big HP system in the output which at least dries things up but they tend to stick around for ages and inevitably then sink south so that will be another 5-10 days of winter gone 

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

To add to the futility of it all, just been out and its snowing here, and settling, albeit very light and i dont remember that being forecast (not here anyway)

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

7 hours ago, TheOgre said:

This! For the first time since I’ve been on this site (since 2020) I’m just not bothered about looking on the MOD thread for this reason. Any sign of cold is a historic deep freeze and it ends up as two frosts and perhaps a fleeting flurry.

yep, waiting for the first reference to 87 or 63 or 2010 in a one model cold spell shown at T+240 ! you know its coming !

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

8 hours ago, Chris Smith said:

. Even back in the 70s and 80s, it was nearly always mild, grey and wet. There were always Iberian heights. Welcome to the UK!

#rantover

Yes that’s very true, it’s a maritime climate 

on a separate note, glad it’s not been icy this week, and was an amazing sunset last night 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

1 hour ago, TillyS said:

Didn’t we see the same thing last year or the year before? Chasing a SSW which did occur but which produced no discernible change for the UK winter weather? I just fear we’re pinning our hopes on something intangible, with many associated let-downs. It’s like staring at a bunch of lemongrass in the supermarket and thinking the next logical step is a delicious Thai green curry for dinner, when for that to land on your plate several other events need to occur in-between.

One ingredient does not a cold UK winter make.

I hope you’re right but then we need other factors to slot into place for it to affect us here. Right now we have a persistent high to the south and a strong jetstream to the north  

And even it does split the TPV is there any evidence it will impact on the Hadley Cell, Southern European HP systems? As Tilly says remember this being a futile straw to cling to a few years back and all it did last year was ruin spring !

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

ECM has been pretty steadfast so far this winter, will wait for the other models to fall in line with it as they all seem to eventually 

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

1 hour ago, johncam said:

Glad being a older poster , I have seen some memorable winters. Feel for the younger guys and gals where a cold spell never mind a winter will become rarer and rarer.

i do wonder if those who remember the 70's and 80's winters is where they get their fondness for wintry weather from. i have two teenage kids who couldnt give a stuff about snow and cold (they like warm and sunny as do i) so maybe as the years go by it just becomes a bunch of old gits reminiscing about the good old days

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

Would you take a later winter SSW with a 'chance' of a cold spell but also a chance of a rubbish spring?

I wouldnt

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

30 minutes ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

The only thing we can say is that a +NAO isn’t heavily favoured into January at this current point in time.

Care to explain the reasoning behind this statement? 

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

47 minutes ago, Atleastitwillbemild said:

This is the most insightful thing that's been said all year. Cold chasing in the UK has always been a cruel hobby, but as the climate warms it has become nothing short of self torture. It's like an addiction to something toxic and harmful but we just can't seem to quit. For me personally, it has shifted slightly to chasing the sun now which has become equally as futile. It seems the warming climate is making things wetter and gloomier too. Every sun symbol that appears on my weather app gets downgraded to a partly sunny symbol then a dark one then rain as it gets nearer. 

There are so many hobbies and obssessions I can think of that give something back in terms of reward for people, even bird watching leads to seeing some actual birds. We have picked the most stressful and repeatedly disappointing passtime I can think of outside of gambling and considering the projections from scientists of what is going to happen to our winters (already is clearly) Its probably time we all just let go.

Couldn’t agree more with this. I stopped actively following all the chases to the nth degree a few years back because (as you allude to) it really is a mugs game. Instead now I just follow occasionally and only ever get interested when anything is well within 3 or 4 days out. I’ve found that way when we do see snow here ( and the east coast of Scotland where I am is more fortunate than a lot of other places) it actually feels a nice surprise . I also find following storms and warm spells equally as enjoyable  

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

On a positive note only a few more days until the days start getting longer again, weather wise this time of year is so depressing 

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

1 hour ago, Alderc 2.0 said:

MAD thread meltdown this morning - apparently the worst winter ECM run ever. Can’t wait to take a look. 
 

The thought of a properly white Xmas would be amazing, I’m lucky all my family live within walking distance for everyone else these days a white Xmas would be a complete disaster. 
 

It’s so painful watching  the models lead them all up the garden path, although to be fair the ECM didn’t (the most reliable imho)

No doubt one cold gfs chart at +300 and off they will go again 

meantime a relatively cool and wet week looks likely and over Xmas 

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

2 hours ago, KTtom said:

A wry smile how fickle we are.. during a cold spell anyone who posts a chart past 144hrs  showing a return to milder conditions get absolutely ridiculed, yet it sounds like this north westerly at 200 odd hours is nailed on!? 

Before then, 5 days minimum of temperatures in double digits for me, although sunshine will be limited to say the least. 

It also looks like an absolute nothing burger, the storm on the 22nd would be interesting weather wise though 

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

1 hour ago, raz.org.rain said:

Southern Spain getting the best out of this weather with 29°c recorded in Malaga.

That’s nuts / worrying for this time of year with the sun so low 

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

5 hours ago, johncam said:

Think now the CET will be above avg for the 12 month in a row , how depressing.

and you have to think that is going to be a reason why chasing cold and snow is becoming an increasingly futile hobby - the world warms, the seas warm, the ice melts, we get less chances of cold weather - but we get warmer summers which is a bonus!

Of course there is always the chance of a 2010 spell but that increasingly looks like a once in a century type event that we were fortunate to witness

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

10 hours ago, baddie said:

My thoughs are :

Incredibly hot end to May, with 34.7c in London on the 28th. Rest of the month will be mixed
A normal June compared to last one, with a few days at 27c near the end
An average July, with some warm/hot spells and thunderstorms. A day or two reaching 30c
A very warm August, with a heatwave from the 15th to the Bank Holiday, with 36.6c in Kent on the 22nd. Unsettled start and Thundery end
A dry September, but otherwise average. Warmer around the equinox, with 27c in places

i already cant wait for that, the older i get the more i dislike winter. at least the storms provide some interest else its mostly a depressing season

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

3 hours ago, RJBingham said:

The MJO incantations don't seem to be working, need to burn more incense....

have to say im not sold on this teleconnection stuff, at least to hang your hat on as an outcome, its one set of variables in a complex chaos system where the overriding variable is nearly always the fact that we sit next to a ocean of warming water 

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

4 hours ago, Norrance said:

A max so far today of -1C from a min of -5.5C overnight. Bright and sunny. Could do with a few warmer days to heat the house up.

Black ice everywhere too, no fun walking the dogs, need ice skates

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

go back to summer and a LOT of people were (understandably) very concerned about the lack of rainfall last winter/spring and the reducing rivers, water tables etc

We may all not like it but a properly wet autumn and winter is actually a good thing nature wise especially as we transition to drier, warmer seasons

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

14 hours ago, reef said:

Both Heat and Cold haters threads were closed on 20th September.

why?

[What is the heaviest snowfall rate you have ever seen / captured, ideally in the UK?]

Havent got pics of it, but remember the red warning we had in Edinburgh on Feb 28 2014, the snow that came down that afternoon was nuts in terms of how heavy it was and how much settled so fast

Red and amber weather warnings across UK

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

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BBC Weather explains what the different alerts mean after the Met Office issued a red warning in Scotland.