thetipster
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Everything posted by thetipster
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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)
thetipster replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
GFS 3D POLAR VOTEX + ENSEMBLES
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NH ENSEMBLE VORTEX
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Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st June onwards
thetipster replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
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heres the latest high res for midnight
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yes looking at the latest high res ppn chart its forecast to do this then build over your location but only light and with these low temps plus low dp and humidity how much actualy hits the ground is varying
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yes its just convection over water backfilling to some degree
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we shall have a good idea radar looks good for about 22:00
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yep back filling
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yes the ppn band is further north than forecast and more intense its just a case of the continuation of intensity as it moves west
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we should see next band appearing in the south east around 17:00hrs lets see how far north it gets as it moves west
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so from here on the metoffice not sure how this will develop with in reason we know the ppn will pushup and intense
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yes latest some locations could have a few cm before main event
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yes the snow bands that are comeing our way guess what there still in northern france
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yes high reflective ppn band pushing west shall pass over us then another band of ppn will come up from the chanel well we hope
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yes jay boy it will and it will snow in Cardiff I rember 10 years ago u asked will it snow in Cardiff and I told u yes and it didn't shit happens
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joke
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yes just checked the charts and u forecast -5cm u owe snow
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yes and the latest 0.0625 18z has a slight upgrade for sw
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looking good for over 12 hour of snow fall of varying intensity
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filling and merging band moveing west
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yes should expland and move west then the main event should move up from the chanel
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heres latest radar with cloud based ice crystals removed there u have the true ppn
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you can see the ppn band to the east is forecast to move over south wales around 22:00 hrs we shall see
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yes frozen ice crystals at cloud level giving a false ppn echo
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heres the hr ppn chart sunday 09:00 hrs
