[The Midlands Regional Discussion]

Birmingham Heavy rain currently = BBC Graphics had Snow over from 4am - 8am and mentioned few CM's possible.. tricky rush hour was a worry for the forecaster

The front is over from north wales to Humber at the moment and is due to intensify now. lets see if this starts happening now.

[The Midlands Regional Discussion]

BBC Weather @ 12 put the main band to arrive after 4 for the midlands. the Front is currently up north. what is going through now is not the band.

[Model Output Discussion 12z 04/12/2012]

I think it is not a worry about the PV and that out to T240. Models have juggled T120 as many times. Overall It is one run which we would call FI if it was showing positivity for the UK.

[Model Output Discussion 12z 04/12/2012]

So now we have agreement with ECM/GFS at T192 and it seems as though UKMO will do so aswell. Ensembles look positive from both Models. We will get further oohs and aahs i am sure as models adjust positioning. But overall it has become more than a trend and excitement should be positively creeping in. All the signals and the pros pointed towards such setup.

[Model Output Discussion 12z 04/12/2012]

and at T162 we are connected to the Scandi high. UKMO STILL off.

[Model Output Discussion: 12Z (02/12/12) And On...]

ECM/NOGAPS vs GFS/UKMO it seems. plenty of chopping and changing to come I am sure, But the tilt must be towards the GFS solution at the moment with its shift of ensembles playing a strong part.

[Model Output Discussion: 12Z (02/12/12) And On...]

GFS 00Z run and the ensembles have taken the cold away. Big shift on ensembles that were sustaining the cold a few days ago.

[Model Output Discussion: 12Z (02/12/12) And On...]

ECM sniffing the Beast from the east. Devloping nicely but as always T192 + recently.

[Model Output Discussion: 12Z (02/12/12) And On...]

UKMO and ECM snapshop at T144 Supposedly GFS to revert towards Euros in upcoming runs.

[Model Output Discussion: 12Z (02/12/12) And On...]

Yes UKMO Cannot be ignore at all. Consistently it is not a bad model (Last few weeks) compared to the GFS. Probably ending on middle ground between the models as usual. Expecting a week of oooh's aaaah's, another rollercoaster in the making now....

[Model Output Discussion: 12Z (02/12/12) And On...]

GFS Epic - ECM Stonker - UKMO - Bonkers

[Model Output Discussion 12z 30/11/2012]

ECM/UKMO T144 Minor differences - Flat. Still hold potential

[Model Output Discussion 12z 30/11/2012]

UKMO at T144 compared to the GFS is saying no to heights going into greenland. Maybe slightly later than the GFS but on track

[Model Output Discussion 12z 30/11/2012]

GFS 00Z Shifted further west at and upto T144 and this Should be an EPIC run if it continues to send heights into Grennland.

[Model Output Discussion 12z 30/11/2012]

Overnight 00Z's at T144 not very good unfortunately at that range and not looking beyond. All the 3 have similaritys to the

block above the UK and Build up of vortex over greenland. Hopefully betterment to come

throughout today.

Edit: As I spoke the ECM is trying to take heights into greenland at T192

[Model Output Discussion 12z 30/11/2012]

Totally stunning contrast to previous run of the GFS. No comments!!!

[Model Output Discussion 12z 30/11/2012]

That low is huge influence on the GFS. Looking beyond that is really F1 at the moment until positioning of it is agreed upon.

[Model Output Discussion - 28th November]

GFS ensembles have improved. Sustaining the cold uppers with the OP in similar with mean bar a couple of colder kinks.

ECM Good Run. GFS Good Run. UKMO Good Run. Minors Good runs. All I see is cold cold cold for a long forseeable. Confidently quoting Bye bye Mild for a long time...

Edit: In rgards to the above post - Good in the sense of uppers of below 0c for a long time and potential charts have begun showing.

[Model Output Discussion - 28th November]

Note of interest: The whole GFS 00Z run from now until 384 is below the 0c upper line except this sunday and monday coming. First for me.

[Model Output Discussion - 28th November]

Everything ----- Vortex, Uk Block, scandi block. euro block ,,, southerly block., northerly block,,,, blizzards,,,, -10;s,,,, Lows.....End of the world.

What the hell is going on in FI?!?

[Model Output Discussion - 28th November]

GFS 00z looking much better at T135 with the jet around the low towards the SW further south. Much in a way a different run; Every run seems to be on a different run....

Blocked towards the north and energy towards the south with -10's towards the east ready to enter the UK... JET only issue out toT160+

low resolution and back to default for GFS as per usual. Overall Better.

[Model Output Discussion - 28th November]

BBC have shown graphics with a very small cold front moving down from the North West England/Cheshire/ Mids/London. NAE has this more east. I still expect a westward shift with the North Eas/East coasts probably picking up more than expected compared to the NAE.

[Model Output Discussion - 28th November]

Is that a 527 DAM Line I see on the UKMO T144 over most of the UK? With the 522 just off the east coast?

[Model Output Discussion - 28th November]

ECM heights going north again-- The amount of lows visible #Amazing

Edit: T240 = Scandi high ^^ Second time on ECM run this week albeit a weak easterly with uppers of -4 eastern half and -8's just off the east coast.

In general good 00Z runs after 2-3 daya of heads down.

[Model Output Discussion - 28th November]

Majority of the 00z Model runs are showing some sort of NE/E flow between T144 - T180. ECM has also shown this in previous runs. Looking good for consistency between models for a developing pattern.

Edit: Ecm/gem similar with low coming out of Greenland - Ukmo has flatter pattern over greenland and better future developments. GFS running behimd but does catch up later.