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polarlow2

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Posts posted by polarlow2

    South East and East Anglia Regional Discussion 19th February 2013

    in Regional

    Posted

    That looks like a massive Thames streamer, shower train stretching all the way back as far as holland, several hours of light to moderate snow to the London, south Essex, northern Kent regions, with that shower train I would be surprised if there is not a widespread 4-6" for areas within its path

    Exciting times ahead

    Do you never learn?? Nowhere in the SE is going to get six inches, the conditions are not conducive!

    Winter Model Discussion 12Z 15/02/13 onwards.

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    As i explained this chart is great for the extreme south east http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1441.png!!! However any more shift in the pattern south and even you guys will miss out better for EVERYONE if the high is 300 miles further north. As for your IMBY reference at the end of your post, excuse me if i dont break out the party poppers because people in canterbury get some snow while 95% of us miss out

    Oh come on it was hardly an 'IMBY' post - what a silly phrase that is incidentally - but I think it's true that many away from the SE may be disappointed by this particular run, that's all I was saying.

    Winter Model Discussion 12Z 15/02/13 onwards.

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I'm only just beginning to understand how to read the charts (don't have the confidence to post them yet!), but the one thing I would not do is get hung up on the details of every run. I would look for trends. The trend atm (I think), is increasingly cold next week, with an increasing risk of snow flurries the further south and east you are. Interesting to note that many of the 'downgrade' posts are from members away from the SE.

    South East/East Anglia Regional Discussion 11/02/13 00z ----->

    in Regional

    Posted

    Just had a look out the window and the snow has picked up slightly here in north-west London, that's almost 24 hours of more or less constant snow.

    Everyone has their own opinion on this winter. For my part of the world, the spell from mid-January to now has been excellent; two good snowfalls, and a pretty solid fall last night, which included the heaviest snow I have seen since the 2009 Thames streamer.

    Granted, temperatures have not dipped exceptionally low, but in terms of snow this winter has been better than 10/11 and 09/10 here. More snow, more often. Can't ask for more than that.

    Winter Model Output Discussion -12Z 07/02/13 onwards

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I'm not usually one to get all emotive over prospects but I'm beginning to think this is getting gradually watered down to very standard UK winter weather. It seems any 'severe' cold modelled more than five days away continually becomes less severe as the days tick by, it's just that the watering down process is so gradual that you hardly notice it, and suddenly you've gone from very promising to very mediocre. I'm happy to be corrected by more knowledgeable members, but I've been viewing this thread for eight years now and it seems that, more often than not, a cold spell becomes less and less interesting as it approaches. 09/10 aside, obviously.

    In one sense I think having little knowledge of how to read the models helps sometimes; it allows you to step back and see when we may be being led a merry dance.

    Winter Model Output Discussion -12Z 07/02/13 onwards

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I'm not usually one to get all emotive over prospects but I'm beginning to think this is getting gradually watered down to very standard UK winter weather. It seems any 'severe' cold modelled more than five days away continually becomes less severe as the days tick by, it's just that the watering down process is so gradual that you hardly notice it, and suddenly you've gone from very promising to very mediocre. I'm happy to be corrected by more knowledgeable members, but I've been viewing this thread for eight years now and it seems that, more often than not, a cold spell becomes less and less interesting as it approaches. 09/10 aside, obviously.

    Winter Model Output Discussion -12Z 07/02/13 onwards

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I am a big cold and snow lover as the next person.

    But don't anyone share the same view as me as things are getting toned down to a short snap of a spell with snow only reserved for north eastern areas of the uk both this coming weekend & beyond. It just seems that although the wind source comes from a e~ne air stream it just refuses to dig south enough to put southern areas in the frame not only for this weekend but potential showers into the early part of next week.

    Could yet be another case of close but no cigar.

    For your location, yes. But as you said, potentially a lot of snow for eastern, central and particularly north-eastern areas and Scotland. That's very much 'cigar' in my book.

    Winter Model Output Discussion -12Z 07/02/13 onwards

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Just experience of weather coming in from the Atlantic is correction is SW more likely than any further north. That is not to say we are talking about huge corrections. Your more than entitled to have your own "instinct" of course.

    I don't buy the whole 'it's happened lots of times before so it will happen again' theory. It's a convenient way for people with little knowledge to sound knowledgeable. Each scenario is different, surely.

    Winter Model Output Discussion -12Z 07/02/13 onwards

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Thanks to all all who answered my question. I still don't have the knowledge of the models so appreciate the explanations. Looks like London may not be ideally placed for Monday's events. That said, based on instinct I disagree with those calling for a shift south or south-westwards, I'm detecting a bit more confidence in the BBC forecasts now so I'd say what we're seeing now is what we'll get, ie Midlands northwards snow event.

    South East and East Anglia Regional Discussion 6th February 2013>

    in Regional

    Posted

    I just put this in the mod thread... prepare a stretcher and bandages for me... keep up the excellent posts in this thread after I'm gone (-:

    The upstream amplification H5 anomaly with a mobile W/SW pattern amplification & atlantic ridge anomaly of lower heights including of course a shortwave toppling azores, WAA (wey ay ay) is a bit beyond me….

    Am I the only 1 out of 500+ readers of this thread that feels like they just landed on a planet where no-one wants to explain anything anymore. Makes me think some are just hiding in their words.

    Ok I get "it's going to be cold with a chance of snow " sometime around this weekend due to warm meeting cold but surely an effort on the part of 'some' posters wouldn't go a miss for those of us who are trying to learn.

    Some members here make an effort to explain their interpretations (you know who you are ) and others ramble unfathomable science oblivious to the lurking masses who read the MOD (AKA: Mad Output Discussion) between arguments about which model is best at every opportunity.

    Come on make an effort for all the folk who come here as an alternative to viewing a forecast on cbeebies.

    This model output discussion is becoming a running joke on the regionals.

    It's the ridiculous over-emotive cliches so prevalent on the model thread which, in my opinion, make it so hard to learn. One liners such as 'looks like game over for cold', or 'long route back to cold' without any useful information which really get my goat.

    In fairness, I really value the contribution of the more balanced members; the likes of CreweCold, Thundery Wintry Showers, and obviously Ian Ferguson. I go on that thread to try to learn from others, but the bickering and sniping and general immaturity really make it hard.

    And then you think, hang on, it's the weather!!

    Winter Model Output Discussion 01/02/2013 12z onwards

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I always hear talk of a 'model climbdown', but in my opinion no one model ever completely backtracks; the prevailing weather is more often a blend of what each model has forecasted.

    Looks like Roger J Smith has been barking up the wrong tree, the latest Met Office do not see a 'Snow Hurricane' on Tuesday, looking like a toppler not 'near record breaking cold', The ECM will backtrack tonight and be more like the GFS tomorrow. Wish I was wrong but all I see is an average February with the odd snow shower from toppelers.

    I don't know who that guy is but anyone who predicts a snow hurricane for the British Isles is, quite simply, off his rocker.

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