polarlow2
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Posts posted by polarlow2
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Evenin' all,
Today is the ninth anniversary of the thundersnow event of 2004, one of the most amazing weather events I have ever witnessed. Thunder, lightning, and three inches of snow in less than an hour in west London.
I'd be interested to hear all your memories of that evening (maybe more suited to the 10th anniversary, but who cares!). Also, can someone explain the synoptic situation to me, as I have a rather rudimentary grasp only...
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Pretty good for west London I would say; two noteworthy snow events, each delivering about 6cms. The second one, last Sunday, became more intense as the day went on, which was a surprise. No deep cold, which maybe is not surprising for the capital, but it is rare for London to get snow on snow events so I'd give it a solid 8 out of 10. Not a patch on Feb 2009, or even Jan 03, but not too shabby.
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There's a new BBC London presenter; Elizabeth Rizzini, who is everything I hate about modern-day weather presenters. Pretty but with no personality, gives the most simplistic forecast possible without any real detail, and says things like 'at least' there won't be too much snow in London etc etc. It really bugs me the way modern forecasts are so dumbed down, presented by good-looking dullards who tell us that rain = bad, sun = yay! I want Rob McElwee back. Anyway, that's my slightly odd rant out of the way.
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What about Kent
Don't take what I say as gospel, it's just an educated guess. But from what I've seen not much is expected in Kent; perhaps a cm or two in northern parts.
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Oooh careful the Essex and Kent mob will be after you with comments like that!
And I will be after them next time we get an easterly outbreak, and I have to see weather warnings for Kent and Essex while London gets bugger all!
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Ok my punt is this: up to about 8cms widely north of London, ie Hertfordshire, Cambridgeshire up to and just after midnight. London suburbs maybe up to 5cms, particularly higher northern suburbs. A dusting in west London and areas to the west of London. Little to the east of London. Thinking that a 'sweet spot'; somewhere such as Luton, MAY get 10cms plus.
Also, I have never, ever, seen the BBC do a 'running update' on a snow event, so they must be quite concerned that northern England may get a real pasting. Expect images galore later of people trapped in cars in the Pennines etc.
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Ok my punt is this: up to about 8cms widely north of London, ie Hertfordshire, Cambridgeshire up to and just after midnight. London suburbs maybe up to 5cms, particularly higher northern suburbs. A dusting in west London and areas to the west of London. Little to the east of London. Thinking that a 'sweet spot'; somewhere such as Luton, MAY get 10cms plus.
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BBC's Chris Fawkes: 'Expect a few cms at least' in London. Interesting.
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North London is going to get hammered
No. It. Is. Not.
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I think a few people should read Ian Ferguson's post on the previous page, downplaying 'meaningful' snow in the se.
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BBC still showing heavy snowfall for our region.
In all fairness the bbc & meto have done very well over the past few weeks so who are we to disagree.
Let's hope their bang on the money this time.
Absolutely, they have been top notch. They don't get enough credit for that, people are far too quick to slate them for the slightest inaccuracy. Fair play to them if they are right on this too; they (arguably) know a little more about the weather than me. Maybe.
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I'm with Paul S. and some of the guys on this one, I think any settling snow only likely north of London and probably only .temporary.
South of the M4 corridor perhaps a short period of wet snow, then v.much rain I'm afraid.
The only caveat being what Steve M.allured to, if that SW struggles to move east, then perhaps a longer period of snow for all but with the Atlantic, pushing through eventually.
Just a quick point on the Feb.2009 Th/Str. (Would highly recommend Paul. S's analysis, top read), how anybody could suggest that was a period of mod. snow, is beyond me!
Snowfall distribution was v.unusual and out of character with normal Thames streamer events. Just from IMBY perspective, you would normally expect Bromley to have the greater depth than Croydon, it was the reverse on this occassion.
Croydon town centre around 8" ( Not Yamkins, my assessment!), Bromley 6/7".
My experience locally is that snowfall normally becomes lighter Bromley westwards.
Finally, just a clip of that event in all its glory. Remember being up and posting with the likes of Steve M. and Paul S., etc.
It definitely was heavy snow at tmes, with some intense cells over our area. At Lee S.E.12 4 cracks of thunder during the early hours!
Regards,
Tom
Just to add to that, where I lived at the time in north-west London received 15cms from that event; never quite worked out how we got so much when the streamer mainly affected south London. Most snow I've ever seen.
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Dexter
I have a BIG Feeling the BBC Are using out of date data Mate!
Expect to see a massive toning down on their Tv Broadcasts over the next 6-12 hours as from the latest data I have seen the Populous part of the SE Has a massive problem in even seeing a Snowflake tomorrow with Sleet at best, some of the latest models (NAE For Instance) are now showing quite a marked cut off line to the snow much further North over parts of the East Midlands and Northern East Anglia.
Expect the Graphics on the tv to change soon i would expect.
Best we can hope for is a brief snow to rain but all green when we wake up on Saturday morning I would imagine
Agree. Feel a few people are getting over-excited at the prospect of not very much!
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Can't see where this Thames streamer is going to come from, certainly not for the midday forecast by the NAE
Channel, North Sea and estuary look calm as millponds
There was never going to be a Thames streamer today. They are relatively rare events.
I think the further north and east you are in our region you are the better you'll do tomorrow night. South and west of London looks a bit of a damp squib in my opinion. Would be delighted to be proved wrong, obviously.
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Guys, most of the south-east is NOT going to get 20cms tomorrow night. You do not have to be a genius to work that out.
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Winter weather is so localised in this country (and most probably always has been) for me personally this winter spell of late has been very good. I did not live in England through the 80s, and was only a kid then anyway. So for me, my weather experiences are from 1990 to now. And going from that point of view I have only seen 3/4 very good snowy spells in my area, and this has been one of them (along with Feb 2009/Jan 2010 and Dec 2010). So from an "average" point of view winter 2012/13 has been extremely good .....so far. (taking the awful winters of the 90s and 00s into account)
And "big on the cold front" is already here for many.
Don't forget, anything that is not 1987 or 1991-style is just enough for some on here.
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Moderate snowfall for over half an hour now.
A funny day today. I expected a few snow grains and a bit of sleet. MUCH better than that!
Agreed, just shows how unpredictable snow can be. That's why I don't understand the moaning in the mod thread; the weather always springs surprises!
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Just spoke to my folks in Dollis Hill, nw London; they say it's snowing heavily with a dusting on all surfaces. Anyone in nw London confirm?
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Must be marginal in Hanwell, just spoke to my sister and she says it is sleeting there, she is just off the Boston Manor Rd
Light sleet here, getting breezy too, but radar not promising for me.
Really? I'm genuinely not 'trolling', it hammered it down for about five minutes but as soon as it started to settle it fizzled out.
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My nieces will be pleased!
Alas, it more or less stopped as soon as I typed that it had started. Awkward bugger is snow.
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Now a dusting on pavements, cars etc. Coming down thick and fast. Expecting this to ease up soon, it must...surely.
EDIT: It has. Damn.
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It's pelting down here, and settling. And I'm not kidding either.
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Only just catching up and looks like our final straw to clutch i.e Met O outlook has been removed. Still on a positive note the 12Zs should be better because frankly they can't be much worse.
A mean of 1000mb in Iceland doesn't really suggest a GH developing in the near future.
http://cdn.nwstatic....mslReyjavic.png
My faith in long range forecasting is hitting an all time low. I can't help but wonder with internet forecasts that are we so focused on looking for signs of cold that we miss the signs that point to mild? I say this because I often follow a forecaster on another website who forecasts for the NE of the US and he is often wrong because he is such a cold ramper. In my opinion its incredibly difficult to not allow your bias to affect your judgement and this forecaster im referring to in the US is a professional!
But TEITS, you're questioning long-range forecasting, yet in your assertion that the models 'can't get much worse', you are putting your faith in a long-range forecast?!
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4" widely in the areas underneath that band, 6" in the sweet spot is my prediction, depends how quickly it moves up
Four inches in London? Have you emailed the Met Office to let them know?
Model Mayhem - Moan, Ramp, Go Nuts
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Can I just ask, where does the assumption that 'time is running out' come from? It's as if some members believe that after mid February winter just ends. This is not the case; wintry weather can, and has, become prevalent throughout March and even into early April (April 2008 snowfall springs to mind). Anyone saying - on January 29 - that time is running out is, in my opinion, wrong.