Paul T
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Posts posted by Paul T
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I see some have got frustrated but the inital ppn phase was an upper warm front so weak and slow...the next band of ppn will intensify over the next 3 hours, mixing with colder air. Good chance of a good covering 300ft asl in mid and south Devon, south Dorset.
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35 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:
Yeah completely agree and its this micro scale abilities that make these my models of choice for streamers and showers.
Excited for friday night and saturday mornings runs.
Yes the lack of instability keeps the flow cleaner, stops the formation of very small troughs in the flow cutting off the longevity of the easterly winds whilst we have just enough instability to create cloud tops capabale of proucing 75%/25% moderate snowfall but for a long period of time.
Dps being very low along with temperatured gives us a better moisture to snow ratio and even light showers will instantly stick
North midlands south yorkshire - 20-30cms
North east and North Yorkshire 20-30cms
Midlands and central southern england -20-30cms
South east and london - 30-40cms (due to a stalling front saturday night sunday morning)
All of this close of play tuesday with battleground snow to follow
Reading many posts, I think many have read Scotts post like those totals are by Sunday...as he references the stalling front on Sat night/Sunday (bold in quote). However, they are to Close of Play Tuesday and i guess that front is specifically reference as a significant contributor to those numbers
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300ft asl Portishead: Snowing nicely. 1oC but Dew -0.5oC....if the temps hold at this level it could be a good 10cm...
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Meteociel.fr - Radar de précipitations pluie et neige - Royaume-Uni/Irlande
WWW.METEOCIEL.FRLa météo en temps réel et prévisions météo pour la France, Observations météo, modèles numériques et logiciels météo (GFS, ECMWF, UKMO, GEM, AROME, ARPEGE, JMA)Incoming!!! This could be a big suprise here - the PPN is heavier and progressing west quicker than forecast. Im a realist with these things, but its actually looking very good for NE areas of region.
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Ok. Im going to take a punt here, and tbh its against the models...but the latest nowcast situation leads me to think that the North East of the region will have sleet and wet snow, potentially for hours, starting from mid day...Bridgewater to wells to Bristol type area....and IF it can intensify it might just "suprise" a few people today and settle.
The wind is from the East, the temps are low, solar impact is minimal, 850s are poor to be fair, but I just think it might snow in the North and NE of the region.
Lets see where we are at midday and i will update my thoughts.
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Heres my view on the weekend...
Saturday. Almost zero chance of lying snow in the south west. Its virtually Impossible and any model saying it will happen is almost certainly wrong. You might get a wet snow flake later in the day. Very poor 850 temps, poor thickness and no entrenched cold = no... in my experience of this "chase" for 20 years. To confirm - maybe some wet snow in the afternoon, but a whiteout in the SW...no chance.
Sunday. Chances of sleet or perhaps wet snow in the more North East area of the region. Could turn into something on Sunday night and Monday...it has potential.
Looking forward to the Easterly next weekend also... exciting times.
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10 minutes ago, Dave Kightley said:
Probably rain near the coast. It's very marginal:/
North Coast different story than south. On the beaches, sleet at worst yeah, but otherwise snow imo.
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3 minutes ago, warren said:
What do you think the chances are for Weston super mare
95% chance snow within 1 hour
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Big upgrades on ppn from euro 4 18z.
7am as an example (although this will likely be 5am situation)
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1 minute ago, Nights King said:
Its going to slow down though.. isnt it.
4.30am alarm is early enough surely?!
Ive taken that into account...also, the front is just starting to have ppn in advancement of the main band (similar to "katafront" principles).
If i was to bet on ppn for those three cities i would guess sleet/snow in Plymouth...snow in exeter and bristol...
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For context, current Radar and frontal speed suggests 1.45am Plymouth, 2.30am Exeter, 3.30am Bristol...
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This radar animation is quite good for capturing the building size and intensity of the band...
Meteociel.fr - Radar de précipitations pluie et neige - Royaume-Uni/Irlande
WWW.METEOCIEL.FRLa météo en temps réel et prévisions météo pour la France, Observations météo, modèles numériques et logiciels météo (GFS, ECMWF, UKMO, GEM, AROME, ARPEGE, JMA)-
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Some very intense ppn on the radar to our west. It gathering some strength.
It also has some sleet within it, even out at sea to our west (unusal), which bodes very well for when it hits land...
And to top it off, lightening currently being detected at Scilly Isles...
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2 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:
I have in memory a recent SSW that did not downwell at the time but it did have an effect on early Spring. Anybody remember which year that was?
2013 had a similarly timed SSW event to this year that could have contributed to the very cold March (it was colder than both Jan and Feb).
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UKMO @ 96hrs appears to be out (before 72 etc..) am i missing something here?!
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Ok. So the high res NAE has this for Thursday afternoon.
A couple of other things to note; the 850's are slightly lower on the NAE also and Thurs max temps across SW are a crazy minus 2!
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Looking forward to getting into the NAE precip charts. That is the only model I care about when it comes to failry good ppn estimates.... The others are very very vague ideas of what could happen. Obvs thats within +48hrs only.
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Its an absolute gamechanger.
A North Easterly on Monday AM with temps across the SW of below freezing. The 12Z was 6oC milder.
Wow.
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The 18z GFS is Fantastic. Unreal upgeades for cold and snow into Sunday....
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GFS appears to have downgraded that 967mb low from yesterdays models!!
Oh Silly GFS and your overly progressive approach to low pressure to our South West...
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Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
144hrs 00z and 12z ECM for comparison (12 hours different of course)