LomondSnowstorm

Radar has been useless today here too (often is with snow and particularly in urban areas it seems i.e. Edinburgh in this instance), had moderate-heavy snow over us for most of the day with barely a flake falling out of the sky. Meanwhile further west with echoes similar to here if not slightly duller there was some heavy accumulation snow in the morning and again this evening. Radars just don't appear to be geared up for snow very well.

The pictures on the NW thread of feet of snow down in Englandshire (and even coastal northwest Englandshire) are pretty gutting to be honest, given most of us haven't managed a depth greater than 4-5 inches this winter. The frequency and longevity of the cold and snow has been amazing but given the number of times we've had things looking very good it's just a bit disappointing that so far there's been nothing on a par with December 2010 depth wise and not even March 2006 levels yet for either Fife or Edinburgh. Probably would've looked better if I'd been in Freuchie the whole time given the number of 2-4 inch snowfalls they've managed to eek out but Edinburgh seems to be a rather barren place for snowfall, if not for cold biting winds The wind direction hasn't helped either, with it being mostly south of east with it too dry or due east with uppers just slightly too high. Anyway, this winter still beats every single one before 2009/10 that I can remember hands down so there's no point being too downhearted about it, consistently cold with frequent snow. I realise how ridiculous much of this post looks next to Catch's video diary from his road trip across Siberia

I think a continuation overnight is likely, with some heavier pulses at times, temperatures dropping to 0C as the night progresses.

Tell me about it, been 'heavy snow' over Newington all day, allegedly 4.5cm of snow in the last 12 hours and 6 in the last 24, and I've seen about 5 flakes all day! Not the place to be in a southeasterly, to say the least.

Very odd to think that it's the 22nd March and the only thing between any of us and a really good snowfall is a lack of sufficiently heavy precipitation. Everything else is set up perfectly.

Looks like a lot more precipitation than previously thought for eastern Scotland too: Could be quite a decent snowfall with a bit of intensity.

Ok, definitely snowing here, but not exactly heavy. radar has picked up a bit though so there's at least the promising of something more.

Is it falling in Edinburgh at the moment? I honestly can't tell looking out the window. It's intensifying as we speak across the rest of the known world but not here, never here

Seems to have been an increase in intensity generally across the central belt during the game alright, how on earth are we winning this?!

Averages for the month so far are out: http://www.climate-uk.com/page2.html Roughly 1.5-2C below average for Scotland for the first 20 days but remember that's 2C below the '1st-20th' average. The month as a whole averages 3.5C so presumably the first 20 days averages around 3C and so we're now sitting at around 1-1.5C for the Scottish average, not including yesterday or today. With the potential for sharp overnight minima in the next few days and no sign of a breakdown until the 30th at the very earliest we're going to continue to push that number down rather than up, which means, barring a warm 31st, that we're probably looking at at least the 2nd coldest March in the temperature series.

Depends where he's talking about, -10C is attainable at certainly locations still at the end of March into the start of May, the record for the UK is -15C in Cumbria and -13.3C was recorded at Braemar before. You have to remember the depth and length of cold is almost unprecedented for this time of year.

Trend through tomorrow will be for the medium- high level cloud to move southwards leaving better convective opportunities for the east, though still with potential frontal snow tonight for central areas courtesy of a pulse of heavier frontal precipitation moving north.

More likely to than the first one was certainly, though it is a tough shield to crack.

http://www.woeurope.eu/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=eu&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=t850&HH=42&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=&WMO= -11C at the moment in the northeast, impressive!

The real deal intensity wise (not sure whether what we have at the moment is actually the front or not) seems to be just pushing up into D+G at the moment. NAE suggests the best (or worst) is still to come: Can report Edinburgh's snow is theoretical only in spite of the radar, once again, seemingly the snow shield is permanent and indestructible

Meanwhile, Fife looks to be taking a hit. Temperatures a wee bit high in some parts but 1C at the Freuchie station so probably lying north of the hill. Could make for an interesting bus ride to school for my sister tomorrow. Anyway, I must be off now, I'll be up relatively early though on snow watch + lab report work.

Are you near the coast? If so the snow shield is going to be breached very very soon, if not now.

Hmm, very interesting, looks to be southerly or even slightly southwesterly winds driving it whereas you would've expected that lazy SE-NW drift that the predicted radar had.

Very hard to say, depends on time of day and temperature when it hits, I think an inch or so would be a fair estimate if it reached here but I'd wait for the 00Zs before getting bullish on it actually reaching here at all. Of course it might get a lot further north (it's now up to Arran and spreading into D+G) in which case it could be pretty disruptive, but really hard to call it at the moment I'm afraid.

Instead of say 100cm for D+G and 0cm for Ayr and then another 50cm for Glasgow (these are somewhat exaggerated depths by the way) it'd be more like 25-30cm everywhere (again exaggerated but you get the idea).

This: Seriously though, looks like a topographical issue, too many hills to the southeast. Ian F talking of a general 'smoothing' of precipitation though which suggests in reality it might not look like that, and in fact it might even reach you in the next few hours. (that's not a recent summary map by the way, in case you were wondering)

Found it: http://oiswww.eumets.../WESTERNEUROPE/ Nice Sorry, failing to

That satellite image is quite something - that front has a tail stretching all the way back to the Canaries! Remarkable. Do you know where to find that map which shows the airmasses as different colours? Looks like it would be interesting viewing, I didn't realise that this was authentic Tropical Maritime air rather than just tepid north Atlantic stuff:

NI is starting with -3C uppers, we're starting with -9C uppers: If a front hits, bosh, temperatures at the surface get pushed down and we're into some major snowfall. Even with easterly winds quite near the coast that's a snow profile.

Got it! 26th/27th December 2009, a Fife/Tayside classic, forecast 24 hours before had the front stalling further southwest with just showers but as the evening wore on the front just kept on going before stalling north east of the central belt for about 8-12 hours of the finest marginal snow I've ever seen. Temperatures were sub freezing all day, -8C at mine (which is something for my station because it tends not to get very low minima) in the morning with snow showers all day. By evening there was a warm layer and freezing rain fell on the snow covered ground but then a thick fog came over and temperatures rolled back to -2C ahead of the front. Then an immediate transition from fog to snow, heavy settling snow, with the uppers sitting around -1/-2C and at times turning back and forth between snow and freezing rain. Huge flakes at around 1am with major accumulation rates to a total of 5-6 inches by 9 the next morning. Fun.