LomondSnowstorm

NMM had the Mull of Kintyre completely dry until 4am but the band is pretty much there already. It's the Kintyre band that's slamming into Glasgow tomorrow so that bodes very well for the west coast. Similar story for the eastern side of the front, it is definitely ahead of schedule at this stage though whether it is curtailed in the next few hours is difficult to say. Can you remember something similar to this happening before Catch? I'm sure I remember one event where the forecast wasn't for the front to reach but it just powered on through regardless.

Often happens this, while the 'synoptics' move southwards up to about +36 there's sometimes a final northward adjustment of the front or addition of another wave that the earlier modelling hadn't picked up on. Wind direction looks spot on for Dundee and Fife to hog the showers when they do come about in the next few days, frontal stuff affecting most areas south of there at times though so could be quite interesting. Either Saturday or Sunday could give an ice day widely depending on how quickly the front clears, and if not an ice day probably quite a lot of snow. I made it out to Armadale for practice tonight and boy Lorenzo was not kidding around about that snow, two days later and still lying thickly on the ground. Worst bit was Livingston itself, no cover east of Uphall but by all accounts at the band the journey back on Monday night was exceptionally snowy. That front is making one hell of an impact, intensity on it looks absolutely mental. If it continues on like that they'll have to shift the warnings northwards cause we're in for a pasting.

I reckon it'll reach you but not sure for how long or with what intensity it'll fall. If it hits Friday evening I'd expect a slight covering at least but really slight changes are going to have a big impact. The NAE would give 10-15cms for the Glasgow area if it came off but there's still too much disagreement to say for certain of you're really in the firing line.'

Also, to check whether the NAE is right with the front positioning, go onto the radar and check the 3 hour accumulation at 6pm and compare to this: Seems to be a few miles ahead of predicted at the moment.

When Hawesy's got lying snow with uppers higher than what it's going to be over the weekend, you know it's looking good for the east coast...

Incredible uppers predicted for Saturday midday: Front also getting quite far north and east on this run too, maybe even reaching as far north as Perthshire: Going to be interesting to see the convective potential too up the coast with those uppers in place, could be some really interesting weather to come in the next few days.

Definitely indications of this showing up on the charts already. Think we may be reliant on convergence to increase intensity at least for the first half of the weekend before the front pull southwards leaving us in a better convectional zone in easterly winds but I still think it could be quite similar in nature to the 18th January.

Indeed, Glenrothes taking a pasting at the moment. Anyway, I'm off to bed, maybe by morning one of those light flurries will have made it this far

A92 from Glenrothes to Kirkcaldy is apparently completely covered now, seems to have been a very good spell for Fife and Tayside with more to come in the next few days.

These showers are just having a laugh aren't they? I've watched one bit of what I assumed to be a line of showers moving in move from Elie to Methil in just over an hour - I could swim that faster!

You do know Rick-rolling is punishable by a 24 month ban from the forum? Looking good for you guys, not sure where it'll all end up but it looks like one of those events which will be non-marginal away from the immediate coast right up to the point when the 0C uppers get you (which likely won't happen of course for any of you). 20-30cm a distinctive possibility if it lies from the start though of course it's still possible that the front will just nudge into your area rather than hit it full on. I'd say at the moment the sweet spot is somewhere between Cheshire and the Pennines but that's likely to shift 20-30 miles or so at least either way. Southwest Scotland, D+G looks like a fine place to be along with Cumbria and bits of Northern Ireland, with maybe even a pulse making it as far north as Glasgow if they're lucky (and it doesn't all shift southwards). Most accurate precipitation map I find is the MO's own one: http://www.metoffice...Time=1363879144 Seems to incorporate the UKV and all the other MO wizardry on offer and I usually find it pretty decent, certainly compared to the NAE.

GFS is always the worry for uppers when it shows something significantly warmer than the other models. Since they're all sub -10C if we end up missing the front marginality won't be an issue in terms of precipitation type, even during the day. Tonight's upper air profile is -9/-10C and we're still not really looking all that marginal at all so -11/-12C would be like a very slightly watered down version of last Monday. As for convection I'm not sure on that one, very close to a frontal snow type profile for East Lothian on the 18Z so reasonable to assume decent snowfall potential from that but capping does seem to occur through Saturday to about 800 hpa. -11/-12C uppers though, so as with last Sunday night things are liable to come together closer to the time.

Looks that way to me too: If you were to just look at this chart without the date you'd have no reason to believe that any milder weather was on the cards in the next ten-twelve days or that it's five days from the start of April.

Glasgow's clobbered, Ayrshire's clobbered, D+G up to Peebles is clobbered, everywhere else getting a pasting from the vastly underestimated showers, even as far as HC's house:

No idea, as Catch said it looks a lot like the 18th January when we went from being in the main frontal firing zone to the convective area in about 24 hours of modelling and it worked out quite well all things considered. Then again there's no reason to assume the models will correct the same way again, they tend to correct southwestwards but not always so we might be in the frontal zone. Either way I think you're in a good spot for snow.

BEAST! (frontal snow still pushing into southern and western Scotland in particular on Friday afternoon)

I could take being left out IMBY if this is the alternative:

Well that was a fun day, beat the hell out of the 21st/22nd January in Edinburgh, though some places made up for it with the 25th January. I think we can all agree though that the 13th/14th January was a complete failure but that the 13th Feburary was quite a good one for many and that the 24th February was a pleasant surprise. And then we had the epic 11th/12th March and the glorious evening and for some not so glorious morning of the 18th/19th March and now here we are again

Wait, you can't just shift the entire band 100 miles south and then just leave?! Clearly a fluid situation here, I'd give it until the 12Zs tomorrow to be honest before we really firm up on anything given the current range of outcomes, multiple bands etc.

Aye, potentially, at least whatever falls will lie tonight. And this also ties in with the convection v frontal argument - MO have nothing out for this other than maybe an icy roads warning, and yet, -10C uppers, winds from the east, it did always have potential.

What is very much of interest overnight is that the winds are likely to back due east: This would mean a somewhat different distribution of showers than the current southeasterly and one which brings areas further inland into play as well.

If I had to guess I'd say 1-2 inches, showers aren't *that* intense but could be quite a few of them overnight. Doubt they'll make it much further west than there though at least.

Looks like a shower is just about to hit Edinburgh. Hopefully intensity will pick up a little as they move across land but Edinburgh is not exactly favoured by the wind direction by the looks of things. Fife and Tayside look to be in for a treat this evening however, again...

What's the northern and eastern extent likely to look like Ian? Seems likely that the front will affect Dumfries and Galloway at least but I do wonder if there's likely to be any impact across the central belt. Cheers for all your input, it really does add another dimension to the discussion on here.

Good spot, NMM didn't even show the trough until the 12Z on any previous run. Could be an interesting night in that case since DPs are easily sub zero and temperatures are already down to 1C at Leuchars and the Airport.