Stu Robinson

I missed the tornado above - was this the one from the middle cell? I was racing down to the tail end and could not see it due to the rainfrom my location. However I did record the full 57 minuites of the Lacrosse Torando. I was 7 miles west of Lacrosse just about a mile away from the meso to mt West.. The tornado first touched down at 21:05 and lifted at 22:02. At one stage it was a violent stovepipe NW of Lacrosse. I was a tad too close and had to bale East - sorry about the quality of the shot - takenen with out a tripod. However the video that I shot is stunning - i am just too tired to deal with video right now as I want to target Lusk, WY for tomorrow - 6 hours drive

FYI It is now Fri 25th and Sat 26th that have my FULL attention - Mod/High risk days.

Team Stu started the day in Lamar, Colorado and picked a target of NE Colorado (Wray) for storms to form off the dryline. And move NE into deeper moisture. I am still shocked that I re-targeted and intercepted tail end storms near to White river South Dakota!! The tail end cell looked good for a while (Even had a reported Wall cloud) which I did not see. I am now in Valentine Nebraska and will 100% hook up with the NW team tomorrow.

I took this picture of a "Supercell Volcano" as the Johnson City Cell perfectly aligned over Twin buttes, Colorado at sunset.

The supercell torndao has been rated EF3 - that is actually significant! http://www.crh.noaa....=83274&source=0 Image of the EF3 as it passed through the Wind Farm North of Harper, KS Also one on the many landspout tornadoes that form that day - this was south west of Pritty Prairie, KS

Yep it produced a cone tornado, good catch guys - I have already seen the picture of it on another USA forum - but sorry I can't repost the image here for public view I am in Lamar (North of you) we should try and hook up tomorrow at some point as I would like to chase with you all on Wednesday (If you will have me)along - looks like a I80 in central / Western Nebraska.

I blew it! After leaving Oklahoma city at 08:00 for Day 1 of my solo chase I targeted upslope flow into the Raton Mesa of NW New Mexico. My target was Clayton, NM. I took the short route via the OK panhandle and guess what - no mobile internet signal!!! I paused at Boise City due to an east to West outflow boundry that I thought may kick off convection. The HRRR showed a tank of a supercell forming at Clayton at 20z but no storm formed? Instead they were all forming on the mountains and then dieing when coming off the high terrain. After watching this process for hours I decided to target a cell that had formed on tyhe lower trarrain West of Johson city - as ~I got there it died! Looking at the radar I then could see a tornado warned cell West of Armarillo but I was too far north and west to re target onto it - Paul did you get it ?

Paul, I am heading towards Claton, NM - see you later ...

Just one image of the main tornado that was on the ground for 18 mins. time for bed now.

I was on the KS supercell from when it was just a towering Cu. Our plan was always to drop south to get the same storms that you were targeting near Woodward - However a mesoscale accident occured that created a landspout fest with in the end resulting in a supercell tornado that was on the ground for 18 mins. I was quite far from it - about 5 miles. In the end I saw 5 tornadoes from this event.

12z GFS ensembels (18 out of 24 members) show 2 or 3 HIGH RISK days over the plains next week. This solution i actually belive so much that I have rebooked my flight home in order to chase this pattern. T3 are in great shape and i hope to hook up with them for ones days chasing during next week.

On my webcam stream (which is not active this week as I am working for a tour) I attach a Sun glasses lens to the front of the web cam - this helps no end with exposure and image quality.

Tour 3 will be fine

Drop South East to Luling, pick up I10 then East - Quickly! If these storm start turning right then you are stuffed!

Interesting change in today May (07 12Z) models both NAM, & GFS now don’t show the cold front moisture scouring the gulf at 84Hrs. Instead it seems to stall the font out around San Antonio. This is a suttle change which *may* yield a few chase opportunities over deep South Texas over the next coming days as that 500mb low ejects. Normally I would not pay too much attention to this but the fact that NAM also shows the same scenario gives me belief that it may actually happen!

I actually think that you will be chasing hailers over the Western Texas Phdl on Thursday and Friday. Surface winds suggest good upslope. If I was going to stick me neck out (this far ahead) then often you get storms forming on the return mosture flow Hobbs to Jal, NM.

This reminds me of 2008, another abating La Niña year. The GFSoutlook looked awful but then of course near to the time things changed and we had the tornado fest over Kansas include the Quinter F4 Wedge tornado (the biggest one I have ever seen) Keep your chin up - I am leaving on Saturday 12th until May 28th and i hope to see you all out there at some stage.

Light at the end of the tunnel? Last two GFS runs hints at building a western trough from the 20th May onwards….

Latest ECMWF Op and Ens are a lot less favorable looking with the Western trough splitting and coming out with a positive tilt. Models are up and down at the moment so dont read too much into this run. I am 50/50 on weather to go on the 6th or delay 1 week until the 12th May where i have to help a friend out chasing. I am hoping to hook up with the NW tour for one day and eve

I too am monitoring this thread as I also chasing May 14 to May 20. However I can add a week ether side to make up 2 weeks chasing. Looking at the possible pre week add on 5th May – May 13th Some good news and bad! 12Z 2804 GFS say death ridge with a pesky 500mb Hudson bay low forming and sticking. However this seems to be only a 3-5 day issue which I just do not buy. Normally we will see a 5-7 ridge sometime between May 8 until May 22nd so I am guessing that GFS is just wrong with this evolution The good news is that the GFS is rarely correct > 180 hours out so with that in mind I am glad that it says ridge because it is almost always wrong. This far out I am actually glad that it does not show a digging west trough.

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Arlene has intensified and now looks much better on Radar. A recent aircraft RECON flight has found 60knot winds which is just below CAT1 hurricane strength. DORVAK number are now up to 3 Arlene could quite possibly become a CAT1 hurricane before landfall as the upper air shear that was hindering development has now decreased.

I am still thinking Warwick to Peterbrough (as of Midnight Sunday). I have to work untill 17:00 and will only come out ot chase if I see a chance of a Tornado (My bar is quite high!) - but I have seen enough right now to prompt me to at least put a camera in the car for the Midlands / East Midlands area! CAP over the far south East looks very strong and I am not impressed ether by the hodagraph wind profiles - good luck to all that go out.

Peeps - the only way that GFS forecasts such high CAPE and LI values is due to the CAP which will surpress convection. Look at where the Atmosphere becomes unstable at the Western edge of the CAPE pool. Dynamic forcing will cause storms to form over the convergence zone (again warwick to Norwich).

I am at work in Redditch – South of Birmingham until 17:00 on Monday. I am not interested in the warm sector over the South East (2500 j/kg CAPE, -8 LI’s) as this just spells CAP to me. Best dynamics by far are West of the CAPE pool along the eastward moving cold front – providing that storms don’t get undercut by the cold front – I expect the best tornado chance @18:00 to be Warwick to Norwich. As things stand right now.