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shotski

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Everything posted by shotski

  1. shotski
    JMA long range ensemble mean are keen to show heights to our north east as opposed to our north west. If I was a betting man I would say we will get our Greenie high late Feb but before that a decent shot at a scandi high.
  2. shotski
    Come on guys GFS 18z & 00z are both decent runs out to t-192 with the UK more often than not under -5 uppers. Lower expectations needed I think, I'm 36 and I can only remember 2 real severe cold spells in my lifetime so when I see posts looking for a 2010 event and then being dissapointed when it's not shown it makes me chuckle
  3. shotski
    If my fun forecast is to come off !!!!!!!!!! this is what I would be hoping to see for early Feb (around 7th)
  4. shotski
    Agree, The PV is in a state come +216 and we have a trough heading into southern Europe and the Azures Ridge (sorry Gavin) is Ridging north. On a side note Steve Murr is a wise old fox on these forums and I'm sure we have an element of reverse psycology going on
  5. shotski
    Looks like good support from JMA long range ensembles for an outbreak of northern blocking as we head into Feb.
  6. shotski
    But they can and will exist together side by side. Take Feb 1947 as an example, split polar vortex with most of the energy over northern Canada.
  7. shotski
    ECM 12z at t-168 and scandinavia is looking ripe for the taking and not Greenland IMO. Can't post chart as on my phone
  8. shotski
    The King is dead long live the King. Anyone looking for an early shot of spring weather probably need to start thinking about an early holiday.
  9. shotski
    Hi crewe As you say decent ensemble runs now showing blocking to our north come start of Feb, I would favour northeast over any greenland heights at the moment. Where can i view RJS's Forecast please.
  10. shotski
    END OF WINTER FORECAST 2013 This forecast is based on historical events and GEFS, ECM & JMA ensemble members over the last week. 27th Jan to 2nd Feb Atlantic driven weather for all with temperature at or just above normal with strong wind and heavy rain at times. Flooding will be the talking point but towards the end of the week pressure starts to rise over scandinavia. 3rd Feb to 9th Feb High pressure sets up to the north of scandinavia but the uk still remains in an atlantic driven set-up with rain at times and temperatures start to drop a little below average. 10th Feb to 16th Feb High pressure over scandinavia collapses and is filled by low heights as high pressure starts to establish it's self over the uk, sitting just north of the uk as low pressure heads into southern europe. Temperature a little below the normal with very cold nights. 17th Feb to 23rd Feb Low pressure becomes established over southern europe and high pressure returns to scandinavia as the uk starts to really cool down with temperatures well below the normal values and heavy snow at times. 24th Feb to 2nd March The atlantic tries to push in to the UK but ends up under cutting and sinking south as the scandi high starts to retrogress towards greenland and we end the month with temperatures well below average and a newly established greeny block. March could be cold .......................................
  11. shotski
    Hi Frosty Looking back in the archives to the winter of 1947 and the month of Feb more importantly the synoptic set-up was very much like what we have at present with a split pv with most of the energy over northern Canada. Its worth taking a look on the archives from the 1st of Jan to the middle of Feb. Was there any sort of SSW in 1947 ?
  12. shotski
  13. shotski
    Please post some charts and explain. I am a bit sceptical
  14. shotski
    Streamer alert, streamer alert ...........Whooooop Whoooooop www.raintoday.co.uk
  15. shotski
    Do you mean men
  16. shotski
    Really ????
  17. shotski
    got some a couple of days old
  18. shotski
    My previous post was to illustrate how things can change quickly and you need to look at the chart posted to see it was in no way negative regarding the current output.
  19. shotski
    Mmmmm I suggest you take another look at my post in a bit more detail
  20. shotski
    Anyone looking for cold from this chart are straw clutching, lets call it a day untill next winter
  21. shotski
    But Gavin, Where is that Low in the Atlantic pushing warmer air to ? and the end result ?
  22. shotski
    The 500mb Anomoly charts are of interest as we head into early Feb. Showing higher than average pressure over the Greenland area that may suggest that lobe of the polar vortex could be on the move.
  23. shotski
    The 00z GFS continues the trend of sending the weakening second lobe of the PV to siberia and the void if filled by an impressive looking Atlantic Ridge. Anyone who can't see promise in this needs to go back to their regionals and report on snow depth
  24. shotski
    Bring it on I say
  25. shotski
    To be honest I'm 50/50 at the moment if this is a good or bad development. All we would need is for some energy to undercut the Euro High and we could be game on big time, but that wont happen.................will it ?
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