snowbob
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Posts posted by snowbob
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3 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:
Going by there article today, already to late, they must have seen this somewhere lol
Yep can see it tomorrow already….
uk to face a 1500000 tsunami snowstorm
metoffice finally respond actual hour snow attack will hit…….
then You read the article and metoffice “say may turn chilly” in the north.
lol
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1 minute ago, frosty ground said:
We don’t eat to chose the weather we get.
Depends how hungry you are I suppose
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2 minutes ago, WYorksWeather said:
I imagine that is probably just wishful thinking. There is essentially no reliable evidence I've found of any such effect.
Agree.
from what I have read it only affects the predictions but not the actual weather on the ground. So more of a red herring couple of model related days then,normal service resumed.-
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3 minutes ago, WYorksWeather said:
From some reading I've just done, the big impact would be from an Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejection (CME). That impact is still uncertain though, and would likely take a day or two if it does happen.
Yeah same I just googled the same thing. Just goes to show how complicated our atmosphere actually can be at times. And I was just getting to grips with all the shortwave dramas. So much science we just don’t understand right now and to think there are still impacts that we still have not discovered
amazing really
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4 minutes ago, WYorksWeather said:
Yep, think got talking slightly at cross purposes. I thought there was a suggestion that there could be a direct effect on surface weather, rather than just what we predict. Models would of course be affected if there were major disruptions e.g. to GPS and/or power outages.
Yeah I think we did. My point was that model predictions such as the infamous cold chase that we all crave this time of year could well be skewed because of it. Especially the last two days. So yeah the prediction and not the actual outcome. Which causes alot of toys to be thrown around in here.
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1 minute ago, WYorksWeather said:
Well it could interfere with data ingestion into the models, and the running of the models themselves, I'll grant you that. E.g. if monitoring satellites were destroyed, or surface infrastructure suffered widespread power cuts. So if it's those kind of indirect effects in terms of forecasting that you mean then yes. Probably unlikely though that this particular event will have that sort of impact, as those sort of impacts are extremely rare.
Thankyou for replying and I do agree it’s just that apparently this particular solar flare was indeed that rare one you speak about. we shall see I guess if It does have any impact at all in the models,or it will just be another part of forecasting that adds to the confusion of being accurate
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10 minutes ago, WYorksWeather said:
There's not a huge amount of support for the idea, though. Solar storms mainly affect the mesosphere and above, and there's very little evidence that activity in those layers and higher really has much of an impact on surface weather conditions. Even the solar cycle has a relatively limited impact, as the variance in solar radiation in the infrared range is only about 0.1%. Even when you consider that this relates to temperatures in Kelvin (absolute temperature), it's still a very small amount, with an amplitude of about 0.1C globally.
Indeed
agree with everything you say there. But what it does do is interfere with electric readings of our atmosphere such as satellites and weather stations which will almost definitely skew what we see down here with all the super computer technology. It is indeed a science that even nasa has said needs a lot of research in to.
it almost certainly does impact weather predictions as it’s electromagnetic.-
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Just now, Vikos said:
Don’t believe that. Models calculate with actual available parameters. So it must happen first to be feed into those calculations…
It has happened yesterday I believe which may explain a turnaround for our weather chances. Every cycle of atmosphere has a part to play in our weather on the ground surely.
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I’m sure this is model related but I have just read that the sun has just erupted the biggest solar flare in years. To the point that the met office are monitoring a possible geometric storm on the 17th of December. Surely that wil be having an impact on the models right now. I believe I read a while a go that solar flares can scupper and confuse models to the point they fluctuate from mild to cold outcomes quite frequently.
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I blame brexit
wr could have tapped into those cold uppers a lot quicker if we were still part of Europe
the models are shrouded in red tape we should now call mild westerlies the Boris effect
On a serious note with one model screaming mild and one model screaming freezing that should tell you all you need to know
its all up for grabs
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47 minutes ago, saintkip said:
Every year it’s the same on here, a few good runs and posters are saying locked in no way the Atlantic can get through and a few hours later it’s all gone wrong.
I have no interest in cold if it’s not going to snow, pointless like last December, over a week of freezing temperatures and not one snowflake. I want that low to move north on Thursday.
With respect and I mean with respect
saying your not interested in cold without snow is like saying you don’t like football unless there is just penalties for the whole 90 minutes.
there is so much more to model watching than just the highlights.
models are just doing the same thing they do each winter they show us gold but produce 4th most times but this winter maybe they are on to something.
there are some really great knowledgeable posters on here that I’n my opinion are great at reading the models (I for one have been trying for years and are no where near the talent on here)
if anything this winter is an amazing learning curve so far
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Hi guys
looking like the models are worth keeping an eye on.
out of hibernation now ready for all the shortwave dramas at 24 hrs in
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I honestly think that this first low is not going to push up as far as the models are showing
this will in turn keep colder air on all of Southern England it is underestimating this arctic push
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Left for work this afternoon and it was proper snow settling on me as I was walking
there is definitely model confusion here and to be honest with all the best technology in the world we will never know til 0z
love it
Imo it’s already colder in my location than has been stated all week on models
let the fun begin
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Old school head on this won’t be resolved until at least a few hours will it push up north won’t it
forget the models
radar and window now
time for surprises
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Would love the ecm 12z to look like that in 48hrs time
Experience tells me it really won’t happen like that
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The last few days I have read more posts about the cold breakdown than anything else
Cmon people let it get here first
snow in December was never forecast in any models but yet look at what fell
the cold may retreat next weekend it may not.no model knows just yet.
Nowcast from Sunday night as far as I can see
that is the most accurate model
your window.
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The gfs really not leaving this
gonna be another 0z to see if there is any weight to this will it won’t it easterly
Garden path 2
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11 minutes ago, johncam said:
The Met were never onboard with any widespread snow event and there is nothing to suggest there will be any high over Scandinavia other than a moving ridge which will collapse SE
The met were not onboard with the snowfall in London until last minute in December, so this still unresolved by all models until at least tomorrow night I would say
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18 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:
NAM is the Northern Annular Mode or otherwise known as the Arctic Oscillation (AO)
What it's associated phases look like (as a general rule).
VI is vortex intensification
So essentially what Chio says here is that it might just be that the Arctic Oscillation is returning towards the positive phase in the Troposphere and instead of the Stratosphere (which happens to have a positive Arctic Oscillation already) 'coupling' with the Troposphere, it's just the AO in the Troposphere recovering itself. Meaning that the Troposphere going positive AO is not necessarily due to the vortex intensifying in the Stratosphere.
Thankyou
really appreciate you taking time to put it that way
really does help
An amazing setup we have this winter. The northern hemisphere is crazy bottled up .it’s like a serious pressure just waiting to release.
it’s just where is that pressure going to escape too
cheers mate
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Have also noticed that mostly the states seem to be very cold but don’t look to be getting much snow
bit like the week we had here in the uk
just cold but nothing to stick in the memory banks snow wise
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32 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:
Out of interest Crewe, have you considered the possibility of a positive NAM upwell as well as an upper positive NAM in situ. So that the positive upwell meets the increasing upper Strat VI that was not downwelling prior to the upwell. I will look into this in more detail in the coming days, but I think it is an interesting possibility.
Haven’t got a clue what your talking about
But A I want to learn
and B it sounds promising
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2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:
Pub run special coming i reckon , Boxing Day snow event back on
Pub run special to the fridge
can always rely on my fridge
but the thing is it always disappoints me with the 0z run
go to bed all happy then tomorrow it’s empty
what the
Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by snowbob
Well I’m off to euro disney on Wednesday so will like the push just as it is
south east London will probably get hammered now
just hope the tunnel don’t get closed our end otherwise I will have two very disappointed children on a rainy morning