[Winter Model Discussion 06Z 10/01/13>]

OK, next week......

What would concern me (if I were a coldie) is that One, there is not cross-model agreement at D5+, and Two, that the fly in the ointment is the GFS. Being an American model and therefore probably more focussed on what happens Stateside, and what happens there is likely to affect us downstream. Three, the 'default'/most common setup is Atlantic and zonal.

For those reasons, i think that the most likely outcome is that the rest of the models will fall into line with GFS in time and that the GFS is most likely to verify at the moment. I know that there are those will say "..but the Strat events go against what GFS are showing...." but that is for beyond the end of next week.

I'm not saying it's "game over" after Tues, I could be proved completely wrong, of course. but gut feeling (for the reasons I've explained above) tells me we are likely to have a repeat of the December shenanigans, but without the rampant zonality that followed for the rest of that month.

Whatever, we live in interesting times.

Im wondering that with greenland being effected with weather coming east out of USA it might model the weather better around greenland than the ECM and UKMO.

[Why Record Breaking Shannon Entropy?]

Im thinking because of the SSW and positive NAO, they just dont know if the jet will buckle allowing the cold to come down.

[Need Help On The Site/forum?]

Im having a problem loading up a profile pic, keeps saying everyone is to big, but its just a normal sized photo.

[Winter Model Discussion 06Z 10/01/13>]

Yes that seems to be a problem.

Without that even with a PV split it will be hard going to develop sustained cold, I think theres alot of uncertainty with so many features.

The PV lobe where does it drop south upstream.

The full latitudinal trough they mention , will that occur, we certainly could do with that.

The Alaskan ridge, PNA, NOAA last night mentioned that the models want to build pressure over Greenland but that this doesn't teleconnect with the pattern in the east Pacific.

Alot of questions and as yet no clear answers.

Where is the place to view the NAO forecasts?

[Winter Model Discussion 06Z 10/01/13>]

This is one of the best NOAA state discussions I've seen. This from the Michigan one. Full of detail and talks about the SSW:

AS A BIT OF AN ASIDE...INTERESTING TO NOTE SOME OF THE GUIDANCE

TRENDING AWAY FROM A VERY COLD AIR PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES (WHAT`S

NEW THE PAST 4 YEARS?). PER LATEST 30-50MB PLOTS...STRONG

STRATOSPHERIC WARMING (NEAR RECORD-SETTING) CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE

NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE HIMALAYAS TOWARD THE NORTH POLE...WITH A

DOWNWARD WARMING TREND NOTED TOWARD 100MB IN THE LATEST PROGS. THIS

CONTINUES TO STRONGLY SUGGEST AN IMMINENT SPLIT OF THE POLAR

VORTEX...WITH FORCING VECTORS SUGGESTIVE THAT SOME TRULY ARCTIC COLD

AIR WILL DRAIN DOWN INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA. THE BIG

TRICK IS TRYING TO GET THIS DOWN INTO THE LOWER 48...AND THE LACK OF

STRONG NORTH ATLANTIC BLOCKING (NEGATIVE NAO) IS NOT HELPING

THINGS...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING MUCH OF THE COLD TO JUST SKIRT THE

REGION. AS SUCH...AND GIVEN SUCH A COMPLICATED SCENARIO...NOT

SURPRISING TO SEE SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE (ECMWF STARTED IT LAST

NIGHT) TRENDING HEAVILY IN THIS DIRECTION...AND TRULY CALLING INTO

QUESTION THE PROBABILITY WE CAN GET ANY SUSTAINED BELOW NORMAL CHILL

DOWN THIS FAR SOUTH. HOWEVER...THERE ARE ALSO ISSUES RELATED TO THE

MODELING OF THE PNA AND HEIGHT RIDGE INTO ALASKA...AND HOW THAT

IMPACTS THE POSSIBILITY OF ENERGY BEING LEFT OVER THE FOUR CORNERS

VERSUS CONNECTING UP TO A MORE FULL LATITUDINAL TROUGH OVER THE

EASTERN CONUS. THE END RESULT: THE POSSIBILITY FOR COLD IS

DEFINITELY STILL THERE...BUT CONFIDENCE IN JUST WHEN IT MIGHT ARRIVE

OR HOW LONG IT WILL STICK AROUND REMAINS QUITE LOW.

Good find, So really its the damn NAO that is not playing ball.

[Winter Model Discussion 12Z 09/01/13> The hunt for cold ?]

The ECM is a downgrade simple as that, yesterday had -5 uppers and colder over the whole of Britain for a week, the uppers on the latest run wont be supportive of snow everywhere.

[Winter Model Discussion 12Z 09/01/13> The hunt for cold ?]

So just the GFS still out on its own, some people are knee jerk reacting to everything, just need to keep a level head right now, i know we will fear the GFS its normal to be a little worried that its not the same.

[Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 3rd January 2013>]

I always think of the south west as Dorset Devon Somerset and Cornwall, definitely not Wiltshire and Gloucestershire. Even in Devon and Cornwall you can have marked differences of weather considering the moors and coast so I'm not sure about the east of Taunton bit. Where I live can be more like Cornwall than Dorset but you can't say the same about Wilts and Gloucs due to lack of coast.

Yes i agree the south west can be very marginal, of course best for snow is the further east, inland and higher elevation, i just use taunton as a example as a few times i have seen thats about as far west the snow as got to and for it to be rain further west at low levels.

[Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 3rd January 2013>]

We will get snow on Sunday morning maybe and evening and for sure next week The town/city I live in is in a valley which tends to trap cold air in (like in January 2011)

Yep, if the ECM verifies snow is certainly a possibility anywhere in Devon, THough me being on very low ground complicates things even more.

[Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 3rd January 2013>]

Good point. The proper Regionals were the best!

Yes, the weather from Cornwall to Bristol can be totally different, To me the south west is Cornwall and Devon, Go east of taunton and the weather changes.

[Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 3rd January 2013>]

I really really hope so!!

I cant see Devon getting snow saturday except for high up on dartmoor and maybe exmoor, low level snow i dont have confidence in.

[Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 3rd January 2013>]

Im always very wary of battle grounds where i am as they have always been snow in my memory, to get snow to 6m ASL in north devon is a hard task, though lots to look out for.

[Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting 08/01/13 00z Onwards]

Can anyone explain what the op and control runs mean? Do they both take on different data or something.

[Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -12Z 03/01/13]

Yes, we need a high latitude block to get the cold uppers to the3 UK, as things stand on the 06z for example, we would end up being unlucky with the cold air flooding into Southern Europe whilst we remain under High pressure.

Yes this is what i mean, i remember this happening last feb with the exact same thing with the high over us, very frustrating.

[Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -12Z 03/01/13]

The high would need to move north right to let the cold from the east flow into the uk and not spain right? this is what im looking at most.

[Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -12Z 03/01/13]

Not to be negative, only problem is that the high could stick on the UK and have the cold go into spain like last Feb, other wise alot of potential with northen blocking around, just to worry about the posistion.

[Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 18th December 2012>]

Seems whatever type of pressure we get over us be it low or high it results in this awful damp, misty, overcast weather.

[Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 18th December 2012>]

Truly disgusting mega wet, dank, mild, ugly weather here. Braunton, North Devon flooded pretty bad, with minor floods all over.

[Winter Model Discussion - The Hunt For Cold -12z 14/12/12]

ECM isn't fully out yet? Only to T72.

Sorry guys i was talking about the earlier ECM, only just got on the pc for the first time today.

[Winter Model Discussion - The Hunt For Cold -12z 14/12/12]

Bloody hell, if the ECM verifies it will be a awfully mild Christmas eve, truly horrid weather .

[Thursday 13th December 2012 - Weather and General Chat]

Exactly 0.0c here, very calm, with the sky just lighting up with a very nice orange glow, a very nice morning to wake up to.

[The Winter emotions and moaning thread]

Il tell you what really annoys me is Tv weather men/women thinking everyone hates cold weather. " Your be glad to hear this is the last of the cold frosty mornings" i just heard the presenter on BBC breakfast say, Really left trouser leges me off when people moan about cold, when in reality even this cold is very mild compared to other places this far north as the Uk. .

[Who has not even seen a flake of snow yet this winter?]

Snow this year? come to think of it i dont think i have seen snow since dec 2010, Devon has a truly horrid climate, if anyone has a right to moan its us. Just a few frosts this year, not a day staying below 0 which is very rare any way.

[Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion]

I was hoping these showers would reach north devon, but seem to be dieing out as they head across devon, temp risen to 0.1c here now, so must be cloud about.

[Model Mayhem - Moan, Ramp, Go Nuts]

Well for me i never get my hopes up when cold is signalled for the Uk, we live in a boring oceanic climate, real cold is hard to get through. Im really fed up with looking at the models now, most people just take the weather as it comes, wont even know it will be cold untill they set out the door that morning.

I only model watch in the winter as what i really want is great cold and snowy weather, not to waste time stressing over the models. Jeeeze.