otleygas
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Posts posted by otleygas
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Reporting for snow duty.....
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Oh my word I am right on the line I doubt I'll shall see anything from this as they always cover wider area out of caution.
although it does say...
a more persistent spell of rain, sleet and and snow may affect the west and south of the yellow area during the early hours of Friday morning.
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. I've asked. Cold rain by the sounds of it!What is a mixing zone? I was afraid to ask in the mad thread.
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Steve. Could you clarify what you mean by "mixing zone" please?
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The issue appears to be the tracking of the low down the country on Saturday. Get it right and we might see some snow in the south, although I'd imagine the further north and east of our region the more chance you have. That's my take on it anyway.
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One to keep an eye on for sure. Likely to be latgely confined to higher areas I guess though?IF posted this in the mod discussion: "By Monday, UKMO-GM has snow showers advecting well inland on westerly flow across e.g. W Country, M4 corridor, Wales etc. As I mentioned yesterday, the unusually chilly characteristics of the westerly flow - at least, as currently progged - looks more likely to bear wintry ppn than otherwise might be the norm for late Jan. One to watch...."
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Hi all. Currently camping near Wells and have limited battery life on my phone, so haven't been able to trawl all the threads! Can anyone give an update please on current forecast re heavy rain and esp any thunder threat for this region this evening through to Sunday please? Don't mind a bit of 'normal' rain, but might decide to pack up early if going to be thunder/torrential rain! ( we are due to be leaving tomorrow anyway). Thanks
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Knock knock?
Hello?
Anyone there?
...opens door...nothing to see here sir....move along now
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Erm, I'm not sure if I should be posing this, but it somehow got onto twitter in the first place, so feel free to take it down if required, but this is the modified UKMO-GM for Monday... Many people will be pleased with this:
I believe Ian f posted it up earlier in the regional thread.
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What an enjoyable drive in the snow that was, not!, got caught up in the travel chaos up near Bristol airport lol
What's it like up there. I live about 2 miles away but it's just slush down here in the valley. I guess it is carnage up on the a38?
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strange how the v6 radar only appears to be showing rain and sleet and no pink snow, despite the many reports coming in of snow.
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Taking into account a blend of the latest NAE, UKMO and ECM guidance the strongest PPN signal for potentially disruptive snowfall is across North/South Somerset, North Dorset, South East Wales, potentially the Forest of Dean, all these regions now fall within my 60% probability catchment areas. There still remains a considerable amount of uncertainty over PPN totals and snowfall amounts due to a wide disparity in data, however ECM00Z projects a strengthening PPN signal, along with NAE with weaker signals from GFS. All guidance concludes that the greatest PPN spread, -4/-5oC T850 frontal deviation sits within the counties of Somerset and North Dorset and South Wales.
Those areas that have greatest potential to be upgraded are surrounding counties, the remainder of much of Dorset away from the coast initially, the remainder of Somerset and down into parts of Northern, Western and Eastern Devon, especially to higher ground. Other counties included in the 40% probability are South East Wales, Herefordshire and much of Gloucestershire. There remains some uncertainty on the Eastern extent across West Wilts and currently we have removed the 40% and have issued a 20% here, subject to change should a slight deviation exist in the model output today.
Areas in the 20% are less certain, either due to the extent of the PPN North and Eastwards across North Wales, Central Wales, Wilts, East Glos and Hampshire or due to the rain/snow line undulating across parts of West Devon and Eastern Cornwall. There remains potential in a slight Easterly focus to include West Wilts and East Glos and perhaps parts of Hampshire. As does the snowline to the South across Devon and Cornwall, this could be extended, but on current guidance a mix of rain, sleet and perhaps patchy snow would seem the most probable outcome.
- Slight downgrade from 40% to 20% for parts of Wilts
- Slight upgrade from 40% to 60% for parts of N/S Somerset
- Slight upgrade from 20% to 40% for parts of East and South Devon away from the coast initially
- W extremities of Glos remain in 60% although very marginal between 60% and 40%
Included is the original risk map issued yesterday:
The latest risk map issued today:
Conclusion
Confidence remains low to partially moderate for snowfall distribution and intensity of PPN ie. snowfall amounts. The risk of significant snowfall is still probable. The biggest disparity in guidance is with the GM GFS with wild fluctuations and a significantly weaker PPN signal, especially for the Northern most extent of the warning area. We will be looking for some consistencies and growing confidence from the GFS12Z in particular, and a stronger comparative ECM12Z to the ECM00Z which showed a strengthening PPN signal. Should ECM12Z and NAE continue to project stronger signals, an amber could be issued, especially if UKMO displays greater willing. A strong uniform set of runs, with broader and more comprehensive agreement is needed before a higher confidence than 60% is issued for any part of the region.
Can I check what the timing is for this potential event please? This evening into Tuesday morning, or later on Tuesday?
- Slight downgrade from 40% to 20% for parts of Wilts
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Keithy does the analysis and maps himself.
And he has an uncanny knack of being right!
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Where was the old county of Avon? Sorry not from these parts so don`t know.
I think North Somerset and Bristol and south glos were Broadly the Avon area. Other may know better. So, based on what I,ve been told bristol should be ok for all snow event. North Somerset a Bit more risky of snow to rain later in day (but still some good snow it the morning).
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hAVE UPDATES BEEN YET, SAYS IT HAS ON METO WEBSITE...NO REDS AND NO AMBER FURTHER SOUTH LIKE THEY MENTIONED? (whoops caps lock)
Expect red for parts of South Wales. Amber for south west. transition line of snow all day to snow to rain event thought to be east of what was the old county of Avon (ie Avon eastwards an all snow event)
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Just been talking to my mum on skype (she is in Yatton) and, on security light checking for me, she said it was sleeting there. Mainly light rain with the odd flake mixed in.
5 minutes south of Yatton here...and just cold rain.
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So...other than for those north and east of Bristol who should do well...is there any hope of any significant snowfall (ie settling snow) for those south westerners further south or east?
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Extract below is from from met office advisor to local public sector resilence teams...
Saturday ....a weather front will move across England and Wales bringing more rain, although that rain is likely to turn to sleet and snow during Saturday afternoon and evening.
The area most likly to see snow on Saturday afternoon and evening is Gloucestershire, where there is a chance that snowfall amounts may be enough to give some tricky driving conditions for a time, especially on some of the more rural and higher roads.
Across Avon Somerset, Dorset and Wiltshire there may be some sleet and wet snow around on Saturday afternoon and evening, but any snowfall should be quite sporadic, shouldn't stick, and is unlikley to give any problems.
... a chance we'll see some more sleet and snow again during Monday, but amounts don't look particularly threatening.at the moment...
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Well the professionals at Exeter paint a very interesting day on Monday;
Could you expand please AWD for the benefit of us more metrologically challenged. If that chart were to come to pass, where would any ppn fall as rain and where as snow?
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In a cooled refrigerated tunnel ...
We can only come up with the ideas... It's up to others to make them work!
Still. Outside chance of a few flakes on thurs.
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Interesting but 500 metres.... That narrows things down to zero towns/villages in england
Flash up north is not even that high...Maybe we could build a really tall tower to catch the snow and channel it down to us
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looking to the future....once we get past this rain...it does look like we have an outside chance of some snow next weekend
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I wonder if there is still any chances of backedge snow at the weekend which (if I understood his post correctly) Ian Ferguson rasied a couple of days ago
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Latest communication received at my work from the Met Office below...
"The very highest wind speeds are likely to be across parts of Devon & Cornwall ... winds will be very gusty and squally everywhere with the potential to bring down tree branches and damage some temporary structures/hoardings etc. "
"Rainfall is going to steadily spread across the whole of Southwest this afternoon and evening - we will likely see some short lived bursts of torrential rainfall within the period of more steady rain. The risk period for the heaviest rain will be throughout the afternoon in Cornwall/Isles of Scilly, but throughout the late afternoon and evening across Devon, Avon & Somerset and Gloucestershire. "
"For Dorset and Wiltshire the risk period for the heaviest rain is likely to be this evening."
"...respite Friday, but another weather system is likely to bring more gales and heavy rain across Southwest England on Saturday/Saturday night and during Sunday"
South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/17 onwards
in Regional
Posted
But you can already see the M4 effect in action, so it must be about right!