Liam J
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Posts posted by Liam J
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Excellent runs overnight.
From this weekend onwards everything is coming from the east, heavy and at times widespread drifting snow & snow showers driven by a strong bitterly cold easterly wind.We’ll only look west for the weather when the Atlantic tries to push in frontal snowfall from the W/SW, looks like there could be quite a few attempts.
Models are moving the low southwards now so the colder air will be affecting most/all of the country.
Nothing marginal once this cold air gets into place.
Its a good job we’re in lockdown, high impact winter weather on its way!
UKMO 00z
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1070mb Greenland high on the GEM at t114! Easterly established.
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Close to epic charts on the 12z ICON.
The Atlantic westerlies heading into the med & Africa!
This is not a bad start to the 12z runs.
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ECM 00z v GFS 06z for Sunday morning. That’s pretty good agreement, good to see the GFS backtracking from its 00z.
GFS 06z
ECM 00z
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ECM looking absolutely fine this morning. Stronger blocking to the north and Greenland, very much like a lot of the anomaly charts...
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00z GFS control is nearly identical to the op! This is not what we want to see as we’re getting this close! Hopefully wrong another day of nail biting model runs....
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Comparing a chart from today’s GFS 12z with a chart from the 12z GEM on Saturday, which raised some eyebrows.
GFS
GEM
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Yikes! what can you say about the 12z GFS... Severe cold & widespread drifting snow. Very harsh conditions indeed if the 12z was to verify.
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6 minutes ago, MJB said:
The Control follows the OP ...................needs watching for sure
30mb pressure difference near the UK on the 6z control compared to the 00z for the same time frame. wild change!
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Not liking the look of the 6z Icon.
Looking more like the ECM!
More energy putting pressure on the Atlantic ridge.
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Some extreme charts from the 12z GEM.
It goes on to develop severe winter weather conditions!
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Wouldn’t be surprised to see some wind warnings issued either tomorrow or Wednesday once the exact track is determined as best it can be given the volatile state of the atmosphere.
A notable period of weather bringing serious flood risk, severe gales and potentially significant snow & blizzard conditions over northern Britain.
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Well GFS will be having a laugh this morning looking at the 00z ECM good performance from GFS so far this winter.
Flipped... Let’s hope this is the start of solid continuity. Don’t flip back.
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Pleasantly surprised by how this winter is going so far.
I’ve had four ice days over the past week and in the last few days some snowfall.
It’s currently minus 9 outside which is the coldest temp I’ve seen since December 2010, and it could potentially hit minus 10 as theres still a good few hours of cooling left.
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12 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:
I don't think it's freezing rain in the true sence as air temperatures are above freezing, its just the ground is so cold it's leaving icy areas.
The uppers tonight are forecast to go slightly lower tonight(more - 8), will it be enough too see snowfall at lower levels? Or will their be a lack of PPN?
And yes, I do feel a little sorry for the people in the SE having a rain streamer instead of a snow streamer but I did warn the poor upper air temperatures could bite us in the backside and it has, shame some members tried to argue and say "but it snowed at uppers of - 4" of course but completely different set up! Nevermind, hope lessons are learnt.
As for later this week, all depends if that front coming in from the NW starts to 'wave', the GFS model suggests it might and the ECM/UKMO looks like it suggests it won't but a little hard to tell. If the ECM/UKMO occurs, there still could be snowfall but the front will weaken and fizzle out, if it starts to wave then it could intensify and stick around a touch longer even.
The was the temperature this morning when it was raining! What a shame it wasn’t snow, would be less dangerous and look so much better
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Freezing rain showers in Carlisle, very dangerous! Frustrating that it isn’t snowing, must be a mild layer above us!!
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Without looking too far ahead and worrying about the SSW and if we’ll get a 62/63 redux the weather is stunning and bitterly cold right now and there’s even been a little snow
two ice days this week in Carlisle, inc today (-1.4c) atm happy new year
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17 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:
As expected the Met office have ditched the mention of colder drier weather in the extended with mild and wet South Westerlies now likely,
I’ve just read the extended Met Office forecast to the 8th December and it says, milder at first before possibly turning colder than average with an increased risk of frost and wintry precipitation into December, notably northern high ground.
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Potentially very stormy next week after a windy weekend. GFS 6z showing two intense storms just two days apart, one of which will will be the remnants of soon to be Hurricane Epsilon as a powerful extratropical storm. Still a week away though.
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This evenings ECM showing some very severe weather mid next week, a long way off atm but there is a shift towards a more unsettled theme as mentioned above.
If this is anywhere near the mark then there would be considerable disruption with high impacts from winds gusting 90-100mph.
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Looking at the overnight OP runs the GFS is the odd one out comparing it to ECM, UKMO and also GEM.
Potenially some very unseasonably cold weather for May from the north towards next weekend, with high pressure over the N Atlantic and Greenland.
These charts wouldn’t look out of place in winter! There’s still some very cold air to our north, if this happens then expect some damaging frosts and very low daytime maximums and possibly some May snow!
Enjoy the sun and warmth this week, I’ll get the garden finished.
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Wouldn’t be surprised to see a wind warning issued for tomorrow as a very deep area of low pressure currently over the Atlantic sweeps across the UK.
Although this system will be filling over us there still remains a tight pressure gradient and powerful wind field, some slight model disagreement with the exact track and max wind gusts. Very windy day for many tomorrow.
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Another very unsettled run from the ECM this evening.
Worrying times ahead for the flood hit areas with more rain to add to the water levels, along with gales or severe gales.
The very intense Polar Vortex is breaking records atm.
The jet stream remains in overdrive!
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Very windy now in Carlisle as the last swathe of gales from Dennis is now moving in and battering northern and western Britain, 50-60mph gusts quite widely and 60-70mph gusts recorded around some Irish Sea coasts. A stormy night ahead.
Nice sunset a short while ago.
Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Yes, I always like to see -10c @ 850 level to support snow at all levels. Also very dry continental air source with very low dew points.
Even if your air temp briefly touches 2/3c in the afternoon any ppn will fall as snow and once it’s on the ground there won’t be much thawing, only top ups.
Dew points from the 00z GFS OP.