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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0507
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX THROUGH SWRN OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 131710Z - 131915Z
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOON FROM NWRN TX INTO SWRN OK.
INITIAL PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES INCREASING DURING THE
EARLY EVENING. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A WW.
A PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM ERN KS SWWD THROUGH WRN OK AND
NWRN TX. MOIST AXIS WITH MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS ARE IN PLACE IN
WARM SECTOR BENEATH 7-7.5 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES PROMOTING AN
AXIS OF 2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD DESTABILIZE
FURTHER AS LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. VISIBLE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN
VICINITY OF THE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY OVER NWRN TX INTO SWRN OK AS
WELL AS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST INTO S-CNTRL OK WITHIN ZONE OF WEAK
WARM ADVECTION. MORNING RAOB DATA FROM FWD AND OKC INDICATED A
MODEST INVERSION AROUND 750 MB...AND LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOW
ONLY A WEAK CAP REMAINING. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THUNDERSTORMS MAY
SOON DEVELOP IN THIS REGION. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40 KT
SUPPORTS SUPERCELLS. LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN VEERING AND WEAKENING
AS PRIMARY LLJ SHIFTS THROUGH THE MS VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NEWD THROUGH ERN SD. THIS MAY DELAY A MORE
ROBUST TORNADO THREAT UNTIL EARLY EVENING WHEN THE LLJ WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE SRN PLAINS.
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ATM my chase target for Saturday is Medford Oklahoma.
Daniel
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SPC convective outlook for Saturday
Good luck stay safe! -
Storms popping up on radar now
Goodland KS Radar
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0501
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0502 PM CDT THU APR 12 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN CO/SOUTHWEST NEB/WESTERN KS
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 157...
VALID 122202Z - 122330Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 157 CONTINUES.
TORNADO WATCH 157 CONTINUES UNTIL 02Z...WITH CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES/LARGE HAIL THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A SEVERE
THREAT /MAINLY HAIL/ MAY DEVELOP NORTHWARD OUT OF WW 157...SUCH THAT
A WATCH EXTENSION/NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH COULD BE NEEDED.
PRIMARY SHORT-TERM SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CO/SOUTHWEST NEB/NORTHWEST KS BORDER REGION THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT FORCING FOR
ASCENT/UPPER JET EXIT REGION IS INFLUENCING THIS REGION...AND THIS
CORRIDOR IS LOCATED NEAR/JUST NORTH OF A SURFACE TRIPLE POINT WITH A
SURFACE LOW ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST CO AND A SOUTHWARD
EXTENDING DRYLINE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO THREAT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO EARLY
EVENING WITHIN A HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...WITH A LARGE HAIL
THREAT ALSO POSSIBLE WITH INCREASINGLY ELEVATED STORMS SPREADING
NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST NEB.
FARTHER SOUTH...RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS ARE INDICATIVE OF DEEPENING
CU FIELD NEAR THE DRYLINE ALONG CO/KS BORDER...WHICH COULD LEAD TO
AN UPSWING OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AT LEAST ON
AN ISOLATED BASIS. GIVEN SUCH DEVELOPMENT...SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND A TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST AS
WELL ESPECIALLY GIVEN NEAR/POST-SUNSET POTENTIAL FOR A NOCTURNAL LOW
LEVEL JET INCREASE AND ABATED BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING.
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James Menzies live stream with Paul and Arron on chasertv
http://content.wdtinc.com/popout/index.php?M=14613&C=20643&O=10432
Good luck today
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Great Video you shot there Danny! Although not included in my figures some of the guys did actually see the Rope out stage of a Tornado off to our Right when we core punched that Supercell but this is not the same FC/Tornado that is shown in the other Video you posted. The Rain Wrapped Tornado on our Storm was captured by Verne Carlson (Stormtrack Have Pictures). The other Video you posted was much further SW From our Core Punch near Midland, we punched the core South of Lamessa.
Oh right Ya there was a lot of storms that day
Cheers Danny
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Do you think this could be a moderate risk for Texas on Sunday?
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All the best for the new year!
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Thanks for all the weather charts
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a cell developing towards doncaster (currently passing sheffield)! rapid convection taking place now! can literally see the towers expanding every 15mins! looking good so far!
Wow that cell as exploded any photos
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Excellent Nathan! Great photos and video
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We are all set for the high risk today!
we are atm going north on i35 to Perry Oklahoma. Then check the latest weather data.
Danny
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Hi, we are at Norman Oklahoma this is the latest radar!
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Hi, anymore forecasts for tour 2
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Think that may have been another tornado
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Wow all these storms look like they are rotating
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Have about 50 Miles to play with to our South so can drop down a bit, they are on a trajectory towards us atm.
Paul S
Temp is 86f Dewpoint is 75f here atm
Wow dew points of 75F Which cells are going to produce a tornados
Severe Outbreak - This Weekend - Discussion
in Storm Chase USA
Posted
Tornado Watch 160
Note: The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
SEL0
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 160
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
130 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
OKLAHOMA
A SMALL PART OF NORTHWEST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 130 PM UNTIL 900
PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST OF WICHITA FALLS
TEXAS TO 20 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF PONCA CITY OKLAHOMA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER SWRN OK AS THE CAP
HAS WEAKENED WITHIN A STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE OF
2000-2500 J/KG. ALTHOUGH DYNAMIC FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS
SUBTLE...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP TOWARD NRN OK THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
ALSO INCREASING ALONG THE NWRN EDGE OF MOISTURE AS IT RETREATS NWWD
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 KT IN THE
LOWEST 6 KM WILL FAVOR FORMATION OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...WITH AN
INITIAL THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. WITH
TIME...LOW LEVEL WINDS/SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN WITH A SUBSEQUENT
INCREASE IN TORNADO POTENTIAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23025.