nsrobins

A fairly active season so far looks to pick up again from mid week after a lull so there’ll be opportunities from Weds I would think with Fri already looking tasty. I’m out from the 25th (set up day) and long range now creeping onto GFS.

Bump! I guess if there’s no chasers out this year from the U.K. it might make the roads a bit quieter

LOL. If there was I’d have a cabinet full of the things

I’d go with that Roger, although as I said in the thread opener I’m a stickler for a good steak so it’s Canadian for me for lunch, then review with options in most directions. Has the feel of the May 2016 Dodge City day to be fair.

Apologies if the day is incorrect but a MDT risk with 10% tor in a classic DL set up. What I call a ‘Canadian Day’ and I’d be lunching at the Old Cattle Exchange (wicked pepper topside strip).

Weds this week looks potentially high end for E OK so long as minimal modification occurred from early convection. Ingredients in place for an active day.

Wasn’t Sunday the first official day of T1? Is there a stream and/or thread this year?

With the popularity of storm chasing increasing year on year, we probably have several UK-based groups or individuals out on the plains over the next few months so who are you and when are you active? It’s actually quite rare to meet other Brits in person - you’d think it would happen more often - but with spotter ID and GPS, it’d be interesting to keep a tag on each other. I’ll leave the NW team to give their details but I’ll start the list off: Neil Robinson + both daughters (Zoe and Becca): May 23rd to June 4th. Spotter Network ‘Neil Robinson’, ID 47377 ?any more

Yep the trees east of Tulsa look prime today but it’s dependent on the boundary retreat as if this gets a bit further North and east it could be the focus for a few strong tornadoes. Looks like a quieter spell coming up from Thursday for a few days until moisture starts returning early next week.

On the subject of laundry - most motels have a washer and dryer, so I take less clothes and more gear these days and do a wash mid-tour. The machines take quarters so keep hold of any you get in change. The wash is generally $2 (8 quarters) and a dry tumble about the same. In a group it might be worth buying a ‘bag’ of washing powder at Walmart for a few dollars and share it. It’s much cheaper than buying a small box of the stuff from the motel counter or vending machine in the laundry room.

They’re up in OH associated with the winter low and occlusion. The activity down south is due to initiate from around noon local time.

Additional: A skeg at the latest RAP shows EHI >10 in central LA at 22Z. The Alexandria metro area looks to be at risk.

From a meteorological point of view the data suggests a regional outbreak is likely with a few strong and lengthy tornadoes. From a chasing perspective it’s not good, as Paul has summarised. Too many trees and then long tracks of swampy bits into W LA with a dearth of decent roads.

Decent seasonal risk of an event for E TX and LA Sat evening https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

‘‘tis the season and all that. I’m of course always targeting maximum tornado potential, but just as good is amazing structure (like Weds for example) and I’d swap that for a tornado bust anytime.

I’m sure the lines of Paul and Nick will give you numbers with respect their tours, but climatology (30 years or so mean) dictates the numbers peak at the end of May. The incidence and distribution of course varies year to year, but I’ve gone every year end May/early June since 2009 and always managed to catch at least one tornado (along with loads of hail, lightning, structure etc). I wouldn’t worry too much about location - the teams will get you to where you need to be even if it means crossing three states!

Having missed last weekend’s outbreak, we have another situation this evening if supercells develop in the warm sector above which is a high-end kinematic environment with some long stretched hodographs (up to 90kn W flow at 700mb above N AL at 22Z). Some strong tornadoes possible but conditional on the cells breaking the lid.

That was Minneola - we were queued at the rail crossing heading North when they started up (with the two hundred other chasers lol). It really is an unearthly sound if you’re not used to it. Happened the next day in Solomon KS too. The ‘rules’ vary a bit but these days a siren will be activated if the town lies within the warning polygon, which can be triggered by both radar indicated or spotter report.

Seasonably strong upper wind profile and corridor of impressive SRH up to 600 (HRRR 00Z) brings a risk of tornadoes to Dixie Alley this evening, some strong ones too with a 15% tor. These early Dixie events can be high-end so this will be on my list to monitor.

It’s American Airlines and I’ve not had any complaints TBH

For info - just got one stops LHR to DFW AA end May through Kayak for £425 Agent is Crystal Travel - used them before with no problems

There are data flow issues and the GFS 18Z run and it’s suite are either incomplete or late this evening

Velocity ‘couplet’ of a major hurricane. Off the scale on the NE eyewall.

That is incorrect. The 2pm local fix had the centre 845miles off the NC coast. It’s not due to make landfall for another two days yet. And reference the people who stay behind - they’re not all hot headed weather freaks. I have friends who care for an elderly couple in Myrtle Beach who will get to the local shelter along with others in a similar position. There is such a thing as choice as well.

NHC hold the ECM tropical product in high regard and it contributes a fair weight to the official NHC track guidance so yes it’s an interesting few days coming up. Of course we’re still very much in the guess range but you get a feeling this is in full ramp preparation mode and could be a big story by early next week.