nsrobins

So the very late spring like pattern continues into April looking at the medium term models. Sat/Sun could be quite big central plains.

A series of impulses and quite a 'late Spring' feel about the pattern. Hopefully it isn't using up all the potential before May. Tues looks fairly high end compared to tonight just going by richer moisture return. Mind you high based discrete supercells can be visually stunning.

I back up Caxton. Pre-load before you go when you think the rate is good and you'll always get one of the best rates available anyway. Easy to manage online to top-up, etc. Luckilly I predicted the Brexit effect and got a transfer loaded on 18th June last year at $1.43/£. Not looking so good now though.

'Pending Authorization' Interesting. Never had that before. Must be because my mother is Mexican and my grandfather is a Zulu Anyone else got a 'pending' ?

Classic looking RACY there with very well-defined dry slot intrusion. Some impressive rates of SLP drop in stations in Ireland - up to 9mb in last 3 hours.

Fatalities reported unfortunately, but in terms of the number of reported tornadoes (not final count) it appears there were far fewer than the parameters suggested. They were very fast though - most of the discrete cells were moving at over 60mph which is a nightmare from a chasers point of view (and emergency management it must be said).

PDS as expected. It's rare to see all risks at highest level:

Atlanta GA: May break to live weather from 2pm local: http://www.cbs46.com/category/213015/cbs46-news-live-stream N Florida http://www.fox35orlando.com/live Live stream dash cams: http://www.severestudios.com/live-storm-chasing-map/

I would think a PDS will be issued for N FL into S GA in the next few hours. SRH maximised on I75 and supercells moving into this region from 19Z will likely and easily develop rotation and attendant tornados.

Well we now have a HIGH risk, 30% hatched with some real scooters possible - steering vectors 50mph across S GA this evening. All the parameters are in place for a potential high end outbreak. In a few hours I'll post some working links for live coverage and dash cams for anyone interested.

The developing low S Appalachians will draw rich moisture into above area ahead of the CF. Sig. shear both speed and direction will likely spawn mesocyclones capable of tornados near dusk with the LLJ max. Sweet spot GA/FL line.

The area of the US centred around Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee and into Georgia/Florida is colloquially known as 'Dixieland' and climatologically severe weather occurs in this area early in the convective season, from Feb to Apr. The zone is sometimes referred to as Dixie Alley. Sunday may be very active across N Florida ahead of the CF.

Welcome to 2017. Sig. moisture return with attendant risk for an early Dixie outbreak this weekend.

Turned out to be a line out bust with no tornados reported. To respond to Snipper, this thread is dedicated to discussing severe weather in the US Plains especially during the traditional chasing season which runs Apr to June when we follow the NW chase tours plus the independent mavericks (;. You'll see plenty of posts which use abbreviations but if you're interested in severe convective weather you'll soon pick it up. When I get a bit of time later I'll be happy to post some links to resources and information, and there are plenty of people more learned than me who can help and advise too.

Could you be more specific? Up to 10% tor chance on SPC now which isn't surprising given what looks like earlier clearance of morning cloud cover. Depending on developments I suspect local channels will cover this later.

An autumn risk of tornados in above zone with up to 17C surface dps ahead of a DL in sufficient shear to get the job done. Target would be N KS west of the I35. Might be worth watching.

Just a heads up. Am in legal process to recover $503 from Budget car hire DFW who removed it from my account on return of chase vehicle. The operative was totally out of order and lied basically about an upgrade. I really should know better by now but it doesn't make it anything other than fraud. Please do not use Budget and in any case always be very very careful about what you think or don't think you're agreeing to. thats all

10% hatched tor risk above regions later, including the Chicago Metro. One of these days a significant tornado will impact a major downtown metroplex. I hope tonight isn't that time.

Been a pleasure following the tours as usual Paul, and of course being on the ground for those crazy two days in Kansas. I'll not forget your question whilst waiting for the Dodge City initiation - 'can it be too hot for tornados?' Ironically tomorrow (22nd) looks quite potent for the Great Lakes region.

Agreed Paul, though I can't say with confidence whether the super El Niño had any influence, something obviously affected the distribution and timing of severe this year. The highlight IMO being the sparsity of front range activity which normally peaks early June. Rather than an even distribution of tornados we've seen maybe two distinct short bursts, centering around the OK outbreak early May and the Kansas crunchers late May which I was 'lucky' enough to experience (using the term carefully and accepting that by some miracle neither the Dodge City multiplex or the Solomon EF4 resulted in fatalities). Still it's what makes this business so fascinating - it's like a box of chocolates and all that!

Yep - I'm sure Paul will be seriously looking to set up camp near the Canadian border with a decent Northern arm of the jet and moisture return providing opportunities for the next four days. Where are you guys at?

Absolutely. We did Mt Rushmore last Saturday and the whole area was very impressive (even the 'frontier tourist town' of Keystone had a certain charm). Can I also recommend Carhenge in Alliance, NE. Came across it by accident and from a distance I thought I was on the A303 lol. It is by an ironic coincidence that it is smack on the line for next year's solar eclipse (yes, two visits next year planned lol)

It's hard work with fairly meagre pickings at the moment. The good news is the ridge slowly dissolves by Tues with moisture, troughing and instability returning to the central plains. I'm keeping everything crossed you find something to chase over the next three days.

All the best guys with the mammoth journey. We're on the breakdown session now ready for the trip home early Thurs. It was no coincidence that we came across you on THAT day south of Dodge City (was it 4 or 8 tornados on that storm - I lost count lol). And to answer your question Mr Sherman, no it can't be too hot to produce tornados

Yesterday's activity had cleaned out the moisture in this area but we are shuffling down to Clovis, NM to catch some upslope before looking at risk tomorrow W TX. The NW team may have more chance further S today.