The Enforcer

I'd settle for that amount at any period during the winter. No? Bugger.

I tend to think of it as a missed opportunity. Most seasonal winter for ten years and it blew it. This is a big hurdle. Winter 05-06 hasn't shown me that its possible to clear it.

Regardless, CET is not as good an indicator of snowfall as might be expected. It's a bit of a paper exercise, in truth.

Good work Ian. Unfortunately, snowy weather has now become obsolete in these parts. When winter is not mild it is replaced by 'raw' which consists of either dull and overcast, sunny and frosty or cold rain.

I think TWS is the man then. He appears to have a photographic memory in that respect. EDIT: I suppose I could just plough through the archive wetterzentrale charts myself.

The data regarding the number of wintry outbreaks in your signature, has similar data been collected for previous winters? If so, is it published somewhere on this site?

In my view it's a double-edged sword, due to precipitation being lacking on the few occasions when the air over the UK is cold enough for snow. If one takes a look at the monthly reports from winters past, one would see phrases such as: "A cold front swept down from the north bringing heavy snow across the country." "On 8th January there was heavy snow in Scotland. This transferred to Northen England on 9th. By 10th the snow had reached Wales and The Midlands." "A deep depression moving through the English Channel brought heavy snow to Southern Counties of England and Wales." A description of this winter might record snow events as follows: "A line of patchy scattered showers brought some light snow into the Midlands." "A keen easterly wind created overnight snowcover in hilly parts of East Anglia, Essex, Kent and East Sussex." "A northerly airstream gave accumulations in North Eastern Scotland." Everything has become much more localised.

Fantastic work by SM and the questions he poses are very valid. Certainly I have to agree with the conclusion that the upper Stratospheric temperatures appear to be pulling the strings. However, I am far from convinced that this will be repeated in forthcoming winters. Looking back over the long-term records reveals that the only weather pattern for the UK winters from indivdual winter to individual winter is that there is no pattern. I can see the hype and hysteria building already for Winter 2006/2007. I hope it's not going to be the mother of all letdowns. PATD raises a good point. If I'd been offered the synoptic pattern and temperatures for this winter last October, I'd have bitten your hand off. But I'd be astonished to be told, yet again, that I would not see any no proper lying snow in spite of this data. Remember, there's little consolation in 'almost' having a severe cold spell, in the same way as there's no reward for 'almost' getting an answer right on WWTBAM. The data looks impressive, it's just a shame one can't build a dataman, have a databall fight or go sledging on a layer of data.

Light snow snower in Crowmarsh, lasting about 20 mins and giving a slight dusting.

Cold air gets dragged down with the precipitation from the top of the snow showers, causing rapid drops in temperature. Sure someone can give you a more techinical explanation.

10 minute snow shower in Crowmarsh around 3-45pm. Smallish flakes, but intense. Gave a partial dusting, but melting already.

The ten years are up: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119960127.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00219960127.gif This was not a cold winter and yet it managed to serve up something for everyone. This winter as yet really hasn't cut the mustard even when judged against 1995/96.

No idea. Not there at the moment. It has not given an accumulation so probably will occur there too.

The lightest of light snow in Crowmarsh, Oxon. If it keeps going for the rest of the month there might be an accumulation. If you run the N-W radar loop 24 hours, a few frames around 5-6am are from 1st Feb instead of this morning and these show some very bright echoes in the Leicester/Nottingham/Lincoln area. Yet there were no snow reports here? Surely some heavy snow must have been falling?

Anywhere in Europe has a better chance of seeing snow than the UK. Anywhere.

Good work there and surprising findings. Disappointing that seven below average months have failed to deliver an appreciable snowfall in CSE. I suppose the figures may be distorted, because the 'average' has shifted (upwards) over time.

Actually Tenerife has the highest peak of Spanish territory, I'm sure it gets snow in winter? That aside, they're about the only locations that are worse for snow. The trade-off is that you get a winter season that is predominantly fine and sunny, perhaps a little chilly at night. With a climate like that I could cope without snowfall.

'transitional, marginal, light, patchy, limited, temporary' Perhaps a 9cm high snowman? It's the ultimate in shuffling: the big freeze is next year. There's a cold pool of air which looks likely to end up over Portugal of all places. The UK is becoming the worst European country for snow.

There is no trend at the moment - one winter cannot a trend make. Equally possible that it's not the beginning of a trend and it's a one-off. For next winter to create a trend then it too would have to be anticyclonic, dry sunny/frosty periods alternating with gloomy periods and the odd westerly incursion. Overall snowfall below average, even in favoured locations.

I haven't been logging them, but at a guess I'd say well into the teens. I'd observed more frosts in november than the whole of last winter. In other words, this winter is shaping up differently, solely due to it's anticyclonic nature, which wasn't a trait of any of the previous 00 winters, hence there is no pattern or trend as yet.

But last winter there were hardly any frosts - hence why the snow in February failed to stick.

I'm not sure that there is a trend as yet. The preceeding few winters have all been mild. This still has the possibility of being (much) closer to average. There is no guarantee what form next winter will take. Have you gone slightly mad, Madam?

Thought so. Interesting that whilst comparisons were made before winter even started, a comparison with 1996 reveals quite different synoptics. I suppose the question I should have posed is will the UK get significant cold and snowy spells in a winter where the Jet is dominant anymore? It is looking increasingly unlikely.

But a mild winter couldn't be better for snow on average than a blocked winter? Could it? Could it? Or Could it?

My concern, to return to the ten-sided die analogy, that this is a winter where the blue side has come up, but it still doesn't snow. Then back to another 9 years of winters dominated by mild air.