Lt. Dan

You may end up correct but it's not too often we get to discuss charts like that! It's been showing for a few days but we all know that could vanish at any time.

Looks like some deep layer shear showing on the charts for Monday along with the jet (maybe a bit west of the CAPE bullseye) but something interesting perhaps?

Nice find, thanks.

I know it's a long way off but Monday still shows quite a lack of any convective precip on the GFS. No signs of any uplift from what I can see (for home growns) - moisture and instability is there. Any precip that shows up is from storms in France and then it has it's inevitable shift East out to sea! Still time for changes...

I'm no expert but I think the midlands maybe too far north of the eastwards moving trough - from where the fax charts show it at 12pm tomorrow anyway. The most lift appears to be south and east which I guess is what the trough is causing and further north of you. Just my take on it, could be wrong though!

I wonder if somebody would be able to help with a question... I'm looking at the meto fax charts for tomorrow, which show a trough from roughly the wash down to the south west. How would you go about picking these out on the NW extra charts? I'm guessing with a combination of the vorticity and vertical velocities but I can never really work it out or nothing really stands out to my untrained eyes! I can see there is some vertical lift showing and that it moves eastwards (I guess with the trough) but is there more to it than that? Any help would be appreciated, thanks.

Haha, I like it. That should be a meteorological term in its own right. 'The eastern swerve'. Copyright GFS.

I think your probably right Harry, quite a warm and moist airmass so must be originating from deep down south somewhere....be nice to see it still on the charts come the weekend.

DP's of 20/21 on Monday! if only....i'm sensing a downgrade

yep, me too cookie. see you out there!

Just watching the same from here...

View from my outside my house, I think this is the cell over north east london at the moment.

Seems to be a big difference between GFS & NAE over dewpoints for tomorrow, GFS 4-5 degrees higher in some places! Like some others mentioned, it seems to have been overdoing the amount of moisture lately which must be throwing out CAPE values which are too high in reality?

Looking on the Satrep images, they have an upper level low around the same area we are looking at (just off the south east and over france) And looking at the 500mb/vorticity charts does show up a small feature in the same area? Does anybody know if that's likely to be responsible for the small amount of convection we can see?

I was thinking the same as you but maybe we are missing something?

12z NMM shows some cape over eastern areas for tomorrow now...

As summer blizzard mentions above, that would be really interesting to read if Nick has the time and maybe from Bod as well...

I think Fairford is down Gloucester way? Looks good for later along with Cambridge maybe?

Massive crack of thunder just now - window rattler!

lightning as well now over here.

Increasing rumbles of thunder here right now....

Thunder in essex! right over my head.