Lt. Dan

Latest NMM shows the most uplift and any precip breaking out there as well. Think I'll be heading around that area for my chase! South seems to be quite capped, would you agree?

Had a lot of that over this way. I think it's instability in the mid levels causing it but we are under quite a strong ridge across the south so I don't think much can come from it today.

Latest NMM shows a nice area of lift over the South East tomorrow afternoon/evening - eating right into the highest CAPE values as well. Looks very likely for storms to fire if that run holds together.

Does anyone else think the high-res NMM is showing quite a strong CAP in place for tomorrow? Still only goes out until 12pm Monday but I wonder how much of an issue this will be? Fax charts showing a trough though at mid-day. I guess this still isn't quite pinned down just yet.

The high res NMM puts most the bulk of the higher CAPE (-5 LI's/1500ish) over east anglia for tomorrow but still doesn't show any convective precip until further north england. Worth having a look if you have access to it.

Has that CZ shifted further north on the 12z, or am I looking at the wrong thing?

Have a read here as well http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=43613&posts=1 (from Paul on the UKWW site). It might be a bit technical in places but interesting stuff.

Just had a quick look this morning and Tuesday is looking quite capped. Forecast Skew-T over the highest CAPE area has some warmer air around 900mb. But there is also a trough now showing ahead of the cold front. Still too far out for any real detail.

Bit of a downgrade for Tuesday as well, back to what previous runs were earlier in the week (still not bad!). GFS still has the cold front further west than the UKMO as well (not a lot of difference though)

Yep, still looking good for Monday anyway. Any other time we would be happy with that output but that's been dwarfed by recent runs for Tuesday etc!

Here comes the 18Z GFS - who's looking first!

The MetO fax for Monday has the cold front moving across by 12pm, which I would imagine to spoil some of the party on Tuesday if that ends up correct. This would surely leave us in a westerly flow and cooler temps with any real moisture getting cut off? Hopefully not though!

Energy and lift are different from shear though. Without suitable wind shear you wont get the updraft/downdraft separated from each other for anything serious. Not too mention any updrafts that would need to rotate to be classed as a supercell.

Supercells would depend a lot on wind shear as well.

You may end up correct but it's not too often we get to discuss charts like that! It's been showing for a few days but we all know that could vanish at any time.

Looks like some deep layer shear showing on the charts for Monday along with the jet (maybe a bit west of the CAPE bullseye) but something interesting perhaps?

Nice find, thanks.

I know it's a long way off but Monday still shows quite a lack of any convective precip on the GFS. No signs of any uplift from what I can see (for home growns) - moisture and instability is there. Any precip that shows up is from storms in France and then it has it's inevitable shift East out to sea! Still time for changes...

I'm no expert but I think the midlands maybe too far north of the eastwards moving trough - from where the fax charts show it at 12pm tomorrow anyway. The most lift appears to be south and east which I guess is what the trough is causing and further north of you. Just my take on it, could be wrong though!

I wonder if somebody would be able to help with a question... I'm looking at the meto fax charts for tomorrow, which show a trough from roughly the wash down to the south west. How would you go about picking these out on the NW extra charts? I'm guessing with a combination of the vorticity and vertical velocities but I can never really work it out or nothing really stands out to my untrained eyes! I can see there is some vertical lift showing and that it moves eastwards (I guess with the trough) but is there more to it than that? Any help would be appreciated, thanks.

Haha, I like it. That should be a meteorological term in its own right. 'The eastern swerve'. Copyright GFS.

I think your probably right Harry, quite a warm and moist airmass so must be originating from deep down south somewhere....be nice to see it still on the charts come the weekend.

DP's of 20/21 on Monday! if only....i'm sensing a downgrade

yep, me too cookie. see you out there!

Just watching the same from here...