Lt. Dan

Starting to appear to my North just now...would you believe it, so is some fog

I've been thinking about picking up a filter, how are you finding it? I can usually process a lot of the LP out with Photoshop but anything that can be done at capture time is appealing.

Couldn't see that faint display over this way and it was very clear. I'll be staying up to see if they appear for the pre-dawn show though...

Thanks mate, my Canon 90D.

Ha, I was out doing the same as it goes. I finished taking my milky way shots about 1:15am and turned back North to see that all too familiar glow, lucky really as I was about to head home.

Not sure if that previous pic posted properly or not but here is another one anyway

Yep camera is picking these up nicely

Pretty sure these are visible to my North now, I have a rather annoying strip of low cloud obscuring them but there is something bright behind that for sure.

Same here, I like how there is not a cloud all day long...until about 8pm, then its all low cloud on the Northern horizon. I tried again at 2:30 but absolutely nothing at that time.

Well done guys. I have been out most nights this week hoping to catch them again...and then last night was too cloudy over this way

Nice pics everyone! Gave up and went to bed too early didn't I. The tears are proper stinging today.

You can tell its not Wickford because it actually has something to look at That was Hullbridge, just a bit past The Smugglers Den. Where was your windmill shot? I struggle to find anything North facing with a clear horizon around here.

Same as @mushymanrob, I thought the early showing was a good sign but they did fade rapidly before 11PM. Checked again at 2/3am but nothing. These two shots were at about 10:30PM, looking North/North-East I think. Happy enough after a week of cloudy skies though.

This image was taken just after 11pm and I didn't expect to see anything that good. I need to scout out another location during the daytime though

Visible to my North West now, shame there is some low cloud in the way but these are pretty bright tonight.

Nice work mate. I couldn't really get any reflections I was happy with. That was the quietest I've ever know that East-West road along the reservoir, well that is apart from the geese who did their best to scare the **** out of me every 30 seconds.

My second shot of the night, this time from across Hanningfield Reservoir, somewhere between 2 and 3am. Didn't look as bright to me as the earlier showing but seemed much wider across the horizon - I was running on fumes by then though. Yes big thanks to @Arnie Pie for keeping us all updated.

I pretty much crapped out every time I tried to capture these last year but tonight I finally managed it. This was looking NNE about 11PM. Shame about the foreground but that will do for now (scaled down image)

Theta-e (850hPa) output from a six member 4km wrf ensemble sref.io : short range ensemble forecast SREF.IO A short range WRF physics ensemble with six concurrent members producing output for the UK & Ireland I'm not plotting convergence and divergence currently but could always add that to the list

Paul S Bumped into your mate Pete Scott at Stansted last night, he showed me a nice spot (thanks again, Pete) for shooting CG's against the ATC tower - nothing hit to our disappointment Still, nice to blow the dust off the camera and see some UK lightning. Not the best pic (but best of the night), I'm a bit rusty this year...

Hi Paul Is your 4km running a CU scheme, and is it nested or a straight 4km grid?

Some of the forecast soundings do show some impressive SRH values with some rather large looping hodographs. I'm assuming this is due to the low level south-easterly flow (possibly 35kts at 925mb on some output) with veering winds above. Its almost a shame, as the boundary layer looks quite stable and with these storms rooted above, but a surface based storm in that environment could be very interesting.

They could well be two different model grids placed over different geographic regions, rather than one big 2KM grid. Probably a good example of how these models are quite sensitive to the initial conditions they are initialised with and their model configuration, physics, domain sizes etc.

Modellzentrale's 4KM looks better for the south east, though if you follow that model closely it can get a little excitable with convection at times. Doesn't mean its necessarily wrong this time, but I guess we will find out later! The ManUniCast model would be worth checking when it rolls out.

Couple of charts from an 18z 3km GFS init run. The model appears to destabilise the edge of the plume again, its been fairly consistent with this approach recently but its no more accurate than any other deterministic model run. It does put a bullseye over central southern areas at midnight - make of that how you will Note the big 'bite' missing from the northern edge of the elevated instability, this is likely to be where the storm is eating into the instability and it appears to ride along this moving north east out towards the Wash area. The supercell composite parameter is almost off the scale, though that could well be skewed as its a composite of a few different parameters and its also a fixed layer (not effective layer). Interesting to see that there is still disagreement between some of the higher res GFS models...Something, somewhere would be my guess