Amendment To Alert No 001010

[johnholmes]

Weather Alert

Category: Level 2 Warning

Weather Watch No 001010 amend issued at 10pm Sunday 23October 2005

Valid from Sunday evening; 23 October until Tuesday 1800Z 25 October

extended due to heavy showers in areas already under flood thread.

Rainfall and possible flooding

The next week from Sunday onwards seems like being a very wet one in places and also later very windy.

We are upgrading the Watch to an Alert for the period shown.

Heavy rain is likely through that time period as a major low moves north east to the north of Scotland. Associated with it will be a strong south west flow and later in the period a cold front, possibly with minor ripples running along it.

Areas at risk are

Wales, parts of south west England, north west England, including Cumbria and the north Pennines, along with Scotland, especially the hill slopes in the south, and west.

In these areas 30-40mm is likely over hilly areas, rather lower at sea level. Some higher values, perhaps in excess of 50-60mm are possible over the more exposed and higher hills. Due to the reasons given in our Weather Watch,

'Some river levels are already above normal. Leaves quickly block up drains before the authorities can clear them.'

Combined with the predicted rainfall totals some streams and rivers may overflow causing flooding.

Rainfall totals of 15-25mm are likely in other parts of England and Scotland. Even here where rivers have their source in western hills some flooding cannot be ruled out.

See the list of link for flood watches in England and Wales, and Scotland.

http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/subje...d/floodwarning/

http://www.sepa.org.uk/flooding/warnings/index.aspx

for Northern Ireland only a list of emergency telephone numbers at the moment

http://www.riversagencyni.gov.uk/rivers/fl...hotocontact.htm

Please keep watching Net Weather along with TV channels for any changes to this. Further Alerts seem highly likely for the period beyond this one.

At the moment we do not see winds of damaging speeds during the period shown, strong, perhaps gale force in the more exposed parts of the west but not any worse than that.

Confidence Level: 80%

Please stay tuned to updates as they become necessary.

--------------------

here is a link to my weather station and web site:

http://www.johnholmes-weather.co.uk/

Edited October 26, 2005 by johnholmes