Weather Eye

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Blimey HC.

That of course is a bold statement by PS. I'm not too familiar with his background. Is he a forecaster?

But I suppose it depends on what a 'heatwave' is. Mid to high twenties isnt really a heatwave, but more of a good weather pattern.

[Rollo]

Hi snowman, It is the old problem again-living next to the Atlantic we get weather rather than climate,however and I'm sure TWS or others will correct me, but there does seem to be a tendency over the years for the Azores High to move North-eastwards to be over the country more frequently in September than some other months, so I for one am hopeful of some sort of Indian summer.

[highcliffe2]

BY PAUL SIMONS

TODAY is the first anniversary of the flood which devastated Boscastle in Cornwall.

Homes, shops, roads and bridges, were destroyed or badly damaged, and 115 cars were swept away. No one died, thanks in large part to a helicopter rescue which lifted some 130 people to safety.

The flood was caused by heavy rain over the moorland above the town. The waters rushed down steep valleys, flooding the River Valency which tore through Boscastle.

Surprisingly, the disaster could have been worse. According to a recent paper in the Royal Meteorological Society’s journal Weather, the heaviest rain fell over a watershed separating four local rivers, including the Valency, thus all four valleys shared the run-off. If the deluge had fallen just a mile away, over a single river’s catchment area, it would have caused a catastrophe we have never seen before.

In fact Boscastle has been hit by flash floods many times before. An account from October 28, 1827, recorded: “The whole street was filled with a body of water rolling down and carrying all materials with (it). At Bridge teams of Wagon Horses were saved with difficulty. Pigs also belonging to the Cottagers were taken out of ye Roofs of Houses.”

Other floods followed in August 1847, August 1950, June 1957, June 1958 and June 1963.

Link to Weather Eye source

[highcliffe2]

BY PAUL SIMONS

WE MAY console ourselves as we buy expensive sunblock creams for the holidays that nature is already protecting us from the worst of the Sun’s ultraviolet (UV) rays. But for the layer of ozone in the stratosphere we would be in far graver danger from UV radiation.

Each spring in the Arctic and Antarctic, however, that ozone is destroyed by man-made chlorofluorocarbons, allowing lethal UV rays to flood down on the few species of plants that grow at the poles. These plants protect themselves with their own UV-absorbing pigments, and British scientists have found that since the 1960s the levels of these natural sunblocks in some plants have tripled as the ozone hole has grown more extensive.

Now in a clever twist, clues about ancient ozone holes are being sought from the remains of UV-absorbing pigments left in fossil plants. Of particular interest is the largest mass extinction in the Earth’s history, some 250 million years ago, when around 90 per cent of all living species disappeared.

This is thought to have happened as a consequence of the largest known eruption of lava, in Siberia, which may have released huge amounts of ozone-destroying gases. If that created an ozone hole over much of the Earth instead of just at the poles, the resulting onslaught of UV would have been catastrophic.

Link to Weather Eye source

[highcliffe2]

BY PAUL SIMONS

AN AMATEUR psychic in Edinburgh was reported to have burnt down his flat and two neighbouring apartments by accident. The blaze was caused by a crystal ball left on a windowsill; instead of predicting the future, the ball focused sunlight on to a pile of washing and set it alight (The Times, August 12).

This unfortunate incident showed the principle of how to measure the daily hours of sunshine using an instrument invented in Scotland in 1853. John Francis Campbell, from Islay in the Hebrides, was a keen meteorologist and noticed that a glass ball placed in a wooden bowl focused sunlight into such an intense beam that it left scorch marks on the wood. Marks on the bowl measured the hourly amount of sunshine as the sun moved through the day.

Sir George Stokes later modified the instrument in 1879 by placing the glass ball in a metal stand so that it could burn a trace on a card behind the sphere. The elegant Campbell-Stokes recorder has been used around the world since.

In Britain, the sunniest places are the Isle of Wight and the Sussex coast, averaging about 1,800 hours each year. The sunniest month on record was July 1911 in Eastbourne, Sussex, with 383.9 hours, while the dullest, with no sunshine recorded at all, was December 1890 in Westminster, London.

Link to Weather Eye source

[shuggee]

Funny how the psychic didn't forsee the blaze.

<groan>

[frogesque]

C'mon Shuggee, not even a psychic could predict a sunny day in Edinburgh :lol:

[highcliffe2]

BY PAUL SIMONS

HANS ISLAND is a small rock between Ellesmere Island, Canada, and the northwest coast of Greenland. It is a desolate place, deep inside the Arctic Circle, and in winter its temperatures can fall to -40C (-40F).

And now Hans Island has become a flashpoint in a territorial dispute between Canada and Denmark. This summer the Canadian Defence Minister landed on the island, prompting a complaint from Denmark and the dispatch of an icebreaker to reinforce its own claim — Greenland is a semi-independent Danish territory.

The issue behind this unlikely dispute is global warming. The Arctic is warming twice as fast as the rest of the planet, and its ice is retreating rapidly. That is opening the famed North-West Passage which cuts thousands of miles off the shipping routes between the Atlantic and Pacific. The passage is now briefly possible in summer, and could become commercially important in future as the ice retreats further. With potential bonanzas in fishing and oil, gas and mineral exploration, ownership of the Arctic will be important.

Other changes around the Arctic are equally worrying. Last week scientists announced that the world’s largest frozen peat bog, in Siberia, is melting. They fear that this will release billions of tonnes of methane, a greenhouse gas 20 times more potent than carbon dioxide, and trigger a huge surge in global temperatures.

Link to Weather Eye source

[highcliffe2]

BY PAUL SIMONS

LAST Saturday’s downpour at Old Trafford undoubtedly cost England victory in the third Test match against Australia, and cricket fans will be watching the weather forecasts nervously for the next Test match, starting on Thursday at Trent Bridge. Although it is too early to make a reliable forecast, the bad news is that a nasty depression is brewing in the Atlantic and is heading our way.

The problem is a hurricane called Irene. This was the ninth tropical storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, but hardly registered in the news.

Irene started off heading towards Bermuda, ran out of steam, and revived again on warm seas ready to attack the Carolinas. But the storm swerved away from the US coast and ran north towards the far east of Canada, strengthening into a full-blown hurricane with wind speeds of more than 74 mph (119 kmph). As Irene swept into the increasingly cool Atlantic waters off the east coast of Newfoundland, she lost power and started to die, but got sucked into a depression. This has created a powerful storm south of Greenland, which is heading towards the UK.

The ghost of Irene will create some very unsettled conditions, with plenty of rain next week. Whether the wet weather will last until Thursday is uncertain, but the groundsmen at Trent Bridge will have a tough job getting the pitch ready before then.

Link to Weather Eye source

[highcliffe2]

BY PAUL SIMONS

WALNUT trees conjure up pictures of French and Italian orchards, but increasingly these beautiful trees are being grown in Britain. Two tonnes of the nuts are harvested commercially each year, and as their growing season extends in our warmer climate, more trees are being planted.

In fact, the nuts and their trees are something of a climate barometer, as both suffer badly from the effects of frost.

Back in the 17th century, walnut trees were in great demand for their timber, which English furniture-makers prized for its hardness, dark colour and decorative grain. But in the early- 18th century, walnut furniture suddenly gave way to mahogany, and the climate was to blame.

This period was blighted by cold weather. In a particularly severe winter in 1709, two thirds of the walnut trees across northern Europe are reckoned to have perished and timber supplies ran so low that the French government banned their own walnut wood exports.

Faced with chronic shortages of their favourite wood, English furniture-makers turned to mahogany from British Honduras in Central America. The new wood was an immediate success, its finer grain allowing furniture to be cut in more slender shapes and carved more intricately.

But today mahogany and other tropical hardwoods are becoming scarce, and the demand for temperate-climate timbers is increasing. Perhaps this is the chance for the walnut wood of England to regain its old glory.

Link to Weather Eye source

[highcliffe2]

BY PAUL SIMONS

HAVE you ever gone out on a summer’s day and suddenly been caught in a torrential downpour that felt as if a tap had been turned on? You very likely experienced a cloudburst: a sudden, heavy fall of rain in a short period.

On this day 70 years ago, an extraordinary cloudburst occurred over Croydon Airport, in Surrey. In one minute, 5.1mm (0.2in) of rain fell — the highest ever extreme rainfall at one point in the UK.

But even this pales in comparison with the world record for the most intense rainfall in a minute: 38.1mm (1.5in), recorded at the town of Barot in Guadeloupe in the Caribbean, on November 26, 1970.

Although there is no meteorological definition of a cloudburst, they come from thunder clouds. These cumulonimbus clouds can hold huge amounts of water, up to 500,000 tons, which is held up above in suspension by strong updraughts soaring through the clouds.

While the rain is being held up, turbulent wind pockets toss the raindrops around, smashing them into one another to produce exceptionally large raindrops. Eventually the updraughts collapse and these jumbo-sized raindrops plummet to the ground, often in a burst of cold air that further speeds their descent.

For anyone caught underneath, it seems as if the cloud has burst open with a torrent of rain, often over a relatively small area.

Link to Weather Eye source

[highcliffe2]

BY PAUL SIMONS

TODAY is St Bartholomew’s Day and according to folklore it carries a long-range forecast for the autumn: “If the 24th August be fair and clear/ Then hope for a prosperous autumn that year.”

But if it rains today, then watch out for a wet autumn. Worse still, “If this day be misty, the morning beginning with a hoare-frost/ Then cold weather will soon come, and a hard winter.”

It is probably no coincidence that St Bartholomew’s forecast comes exactly at the end of the 40-day period indicated in the prediction from St Swithin’s Day (on July 15), of 40 days’ rain or dry weather.

If both saints were to do their worst we could expect three months’ rain, but Bartholomew does his best to remedy Swithin’s spell: “St Bartholomew’s mantle wipes dry/ All the tears that St Swithin’s can cry.”

This is not just a British phenomenon. Bartholomew’s influence extends across much of Western Europe. In Germany storks are already migrating but if one or two birds are still around today it is a good sign for the coming winter.

Maybe there is something in this forecast, because the atmospheric circulation in the northern hemisphere often changes around this date. Unfortunately today’s weather is atrocious across much of Europe, so if you believe Bartholomew do not expect a fine autumn.

Link to Weather Eye source

[highcliffe2]

BY PAUL SIMONS

IF YOU think the summer weather in Britain is bad at the moment, spare a thought for the rest of Europe where conditions have been much worse.

A massive, slow-moving storm has plagued a swath of the Continent from Switzerland down to Turkey over the past few days, and dozens of people have died in floods, landslides or from lightning strikes.

Worst hit was Romania, already reeling from rains and flooding for much of the summer. The latest storm has left 18 dead, some 20,000 homes inundated and more than 1,000 bridges damaged. In neighbouring Bulgaria the death toll from floods has climbed to 26 since June, and in Croatia many tourists have abandoned their holidays as resorts turned into swamps.

Parts of Switzerland, Austria and Germany have had a month’s worth of rain in a week — southern Germany received 142mm (5.6in) over the past three days alone.

The Alps have turned into a treacherous danger zone as steep valleys funnel the rains into raging torrents which in turn trigger landslides, crushing houses, bridges and buildings. Five people were killed in Switzerland this week.

The outlook for the rest of this week looks equally grim. The storm that soaked the UK on Wednesday was particularly vigorous because it was wrapped up with the leftovers from a hurricane. It is now continuing eastwards and promises to drop even more rain over continental Europe.

Link to Weather Eye source

[highcliffe2]

BY PAUL SIMONS

“HOW beautiful is the rain!” said Henry Longfellow in his poem Rain in Summer. Have you ever noticed how the sky can turn amazingly bright during a rainstorm? It can seem to sparkle as if bathed in bright light.

This seems to go against intuition — after all, everything goes dark before the shower breaks, so you would expect heavy rain to turn things even darker.

But each raindrop can behave like a tiny mirror, reflecting sunlight falling on it. During a heavy downpour the cascades of raindrops become a shower of liquid mirrors, bouncing light many times in a dazzling display, leaving the sky bathed in light from all directions, rather as a mirrorball casts bright lights all over a dancehall. In fact, the heavier the shower, the brighter this display of light can be.

The reason is that the raindrops in a heavy shower are particularly large and have a larger surface area to reflect light.

The reflections of raindrops also explain why the sky is brighter under a rainbow. As sunlight passes through a raindrop, it bends and forms the multicoloured bow. It is also reflected off the back of the raindrop and beams into the sky underneath the rainbow. In fact, you can think of the whole effect as a shiny disk brightening towards its rim, where the rainbow appears in all its glory.

Link to Weather Eye source

[highcliffe2]

BY PAUL SIMONS

THE Bank Holiday weekend looks like a clear split between a dry South and a wet and windy North. This is hardly surprising: we tend to have wet weather blowing in from the Atlantic at this time of the year — which explains why the August Bank Holiday is so often a disaster.

The first of the late-August holidays in 1965 was cool, cloudy with blustery winds and intermittent rain. The following year was even worse, as heavy downpours and thunderstorms spread northwards across the country on Sunday night and Monday, dropping torrents of rain over a wide area, and around 50mm at Winchester.

Probably the worst of the holidays was in 1986, when the remnants of Hurricane Charley battered the entire country. Rain fell in torrents, winds gusted to 75mph on the Devon coast and in parts of North Wales well over 120mm of rain fell and caused flooding.

The catalogue of depressing bank holidays is so long that there might be a case for England and Wales returning to the original Bank Holiday on the first Monday of August, which continues only in Scotland. However, the weather archives reveal that a surprisingly large number of these dates were also pretty disappointing, often cool and cloudy, sometimes with showers. Perhaps the whole idea of an August public holiday is jinxed.

Link to Weather Eye source

[highcliffe2]

BY PAUL SIMONS

IF you are on the coast of Britain today, it might be worth looking out for unusual marine life. Six fin whales were spotted last week in the Irish Sea, about ten miles off the Pembrokeshire coast.

The fin whale is the largest animal on the planet after the blue whale — it can weigh 80 tonnes — and this was the largest number of these whales spotted in UK waters.

The fin whale sighting came only days after 2 humpback whales, 10 minke whales and around 2,000 dolphins were seen off the West Wales coast. These unusual numbers of visitors were gorging themselves on extraordinary numbers of mackerel and herring, themselves feeding off rich supplies of plankton. The plankton were swept up on the North Atlantic current, which is flowing more strongly and pushing further north than usual, and has encouraged warm-water creatures such as basking sharks and tuna to venture further north.

Whether this is because of temporary changes in the currents or because they are related to global warming is difficult to say. But all around Britain’s coasts warm-water creatures have been seen much more frequently over the past decade.

Fishermen in southern England have been catching hauls of octopuses, squid, sardines and anchovies — creatures more often seen in the Mediterranean — while Scottish fishermen are catching red mullet and tuna.

Link to Weather Eye source

[highcliffe2]

BY PAUL SIMONS

WITH so much devastation and disruption from Hurricane Katrina, people often ask if there is anything we can do to tame these tropical storms.

One proposal was to coat the surface of the sea with olive oil to stop hurricanes feeding off the warm water which supplies their energy — but the rough seas prevent oil slicks from forming. A more fanciful idea was to tow an iceberg down to Florida to cool the water temperature, or to build large fans on the coast to blow away approaching storms. Recently a company in Florida proposed dropping tons of super-absorbent powder into the top of a hurricane to suck it dry.

A more worrying idea was to destabilise a hurricane by exploding a nuclear warhead — but hurricanes are thousands of times more powerful than any bomb, and the radioactive fallout would create an even worse disaster.

In the 1960s the US began a promising project to weaken hurricanes by seeding them with silver iodide particles that would encourage clouds to form around the eye of the storm. This, it was hoped, would weaken the storm by strangling its eye. But after 20 years’ work there was still no clear proof that this worked.

In reality, it is probably far too risky to try changing a hurricane in case we accidentally make it worse by intensifying it or sending it off on an unexpected track.

Link to Weather Eye source

[highcliffe2]

BY PAUL SIMONS

IT MAY be difficult to credit after the disaster of Hurricane Katrina, but tropical storms are good for the planet’s health.

They behave as the Earth’s air conditioners, removing huge amounts of heat from the tropics and dumping it as warm air in the colder latitudes.

More surprisingly, a hurricane encourages living creatures. The winds churn the seas, dragging deeper, cold water with valuable nutrients to the surface. This up-welling fertilises phytoplankton, tiny plant-like organisms, which grow into massive blooms; the greater the storm, the bigger the bloom. The teeming phytoplankton help to alleviate global warming by absorbing huge amounts of carbon dioxide. They also provide a feeding frenzy for fish, many of which thrive after a hurricane.

Even the battering of coasts by huge waves can stimulate creatures along the shoreline. After the havoc caused by Hurricane Isabel on the US eastern seaboard in September 2003, many fish species doubled in number, boosted by the extra nutrients and oxygen in the water. And even on land nature seems to repair hurricane damage quickly. When Hurricane Joan swept into Nicaragua in 1986 it flattened hundreds of square miles of prime forest. But within months a juvenile forest had grown from new saplings and snapped tree trunks that resprouted.

Link to Weather Eye source

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Natures a wonderful thing HC.

I never knew about the effects of Hurracains, and of course what happens after them.

A great read :lol:

[highcliffe2]

BY PAUL SIMONS

THE devastation wreaked by Hurricane Katrina is a reminder of the deadliest hurricane in US history.

On September 8, 1900, a Category 4 hurricane swept across the Gulf of Mexico and headed towards the beautiful island resort town of Galveston on the Texas coast.

Hurricane warnings were given well beforehand as barometer readings plunged and telegraph reports told of stormy seas in the Caribbean heading northwards.

Galveston was full of residents and tourists, but fewer than half heeded the warnings and left; some sightseers even came over from the mainland to view the spectacle of the huge waves.

The hurricane hit land in the evening with wind speeds estimated at 120 mph (193kph).

A train leaving Galveston was lifted clean off the tracks by the storm winds, and the only rail bridge across Galveston Bay collapsed. The sea piled in with a 4.6m (15ft) storm surge that burst through the town, tearing buildings from their foundations. Almost the entire town was wrecked, and about 10,000 people died, mostly drowned in the floodwaters. It was the deadliest weather disaster in US history.

Galveston now has some of the world’s best storm-surge protection, with a sea barrier about 11 miles long and 20ft high, and all its buildings were rebuilt seven feet above the ground. Photos and film of the devastation can be seen at www.1900storm.com

Link to Weather Eye source

[highcliffe2]

BY PAUL SIMONS

AS THE full story of Hurricane Katrina’s devastation unfolds, it is a strange twist of history that today is the 70th anniversary of the strongest hurricane that hit the US.

It was a relatively small hurricane that blasted across the Florida Keys — the chain of islands at the southern tip of the state — but the winds were tightly wound around a core of exceptionally low atmospheric pressure, 892 millibars, with winds estimated at more than 200mph (320kmh).

It was one of only three hurricanes of Category 5 strength to strike the United States during the 20th century.

“Sheet-metal roofs became flying guillotines, whirling lumber became lethal javelins,” described one eyewitness. The storm’s winds were lit up by countless sparks, as grains of sand struck one another to produce electrical charges.

Although the Keys were sparsely populated at the time, 700 First World War veterans were building railway bridges as part of Roosevelt’s New Deal programme to provide work for those left destitute by the Depression. The workers’ flimsy huts were destroyed by the winds and storm surge. More than 400 workers and residents were killed.

Today the Keys are far more heavily populated, yet there is little shelter from wind and storm surges, and rapid evacuation to the mainland is difficult.

Link to Weather Eye source

[highcliffe2]

BY PAUL SIMONS

THE fifth Test match between England and Australia starts next Thursday at the Oval, London, and all eyes will be on the weather.

In fact the Oval cricket ground owes its origins to heavy rains and floods. In the past the River Effra, which runs through this part of southeast London, was liable to inundate the area. A report in 1809 described one such flooding: “In the neighbourhood of Kennington and Vauxhall a torrent of water has risen, which in its progress has carried away furniture, trunks of trees, cattle etc, and has destroyed a great number of bridges.”

Over the years, many people were reported to have been swept away on floods. The flooding was so bad that builders steered clear of the area and it was left as an open floodplain fit only for a market garden growing vegetables. Around 1790 a road was built around it, and its oval track inspired the name for a new cricket ground laid out on the site in 1845, the home of Surrey County Cricket Club.

In 1882 the Oval was the venue of the England v Australia Test which gave rise to the Ashes. Australia’s victory by seven runs prompted the Sporting Times to carry a mock obituary: “In affectionate memory of English cricket which died at the Oval on 29th August 1882. The body will be cremated and the ashes taken to Australia.”

Link to Weather Eye source

[Portland Paul]

BY PAUL SIMONS

BIRMINGHAM could be the tornado capital of Britain. The violent twister on Thursday had winds of more than 100mph (161 kph) and left a trail of devastation and several injuries (The Times, July 29). An equally ferocious tornado struck a nearby area of Birmingham on June 14, 1931.

A big thunderstorm broke that afternoon and soon afterwards a tornado struck Hall Green to the south of the city, then carved through Sparkhill and Small Heath. “Windows blew in, pieces of wooden pailing flew in all directions,” described the Birmingham Mail. “Slates and pieces of roofing sped through the air like a flight of startled birds.”

Hundreds of trees were uprooted or stripped of leaves. One woman was killed sheltering at the side of a shop which collapsed; several other people were injured in their homes by falling masonry.

Photographs of the devastation showed houses half demolished as if a bomb had gone off, and it is amazing that there were not more casualties. Dozens of families were left homeless, the damage to their houses made worse by the storm’s intense rains and another huge downpour two days later.

Another tornado struck Selly Oak, Birmingham on July 6, 1999. This one was less powerful, but trees were bent and tiles were ripped from the roofs of 21 houses.

Link to Weather Eye source

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

And if the Uk is the tornado (frequency) capital of the world, then that makes Birmingham perhaps the most tornadic city on Earth to live in!

[highcliffe2]

BY PAUL SIMONS

CRICKET fans are checking the forecast for the fifth Test at the Oval on Thursday.

There has been some suggestion that holding the match so far into September would be risking wet weather, but the choice of this date was inspired. London tends to be drier in September than in July or August. Average rainfall in September is 49mm (1.9in), 17 per cent less than August and 15 per cent below July.

The reason is that this month is cooler and there is less energy to create the rising plumes of warm air that can trigger convective showers such as thunderstorms.

Although more depressions roll in off the Atlantic in September, these usually hit the west side of Britain harder than London and the South East.

Another worry is that September’s rainfall tends to be spread over a slightly longer time, thus increasing the chances of interrupted play at the Oval.

But, most reassuringly, the second week of September is blessed with regular anticyclones. These bring fine dry weather, bearing out the folklore that: “September blow soft till the fruit’s in the loft.”

In fact, the peak dates for high pressure are September 7-10, delivering excellent conditions for southeast England.

The climax to the Test series could not have been planned better.

Link to Weather Eye source

[highcliffe2]

BY JEREMY PLESTER

ON SUNDAY night a spectacular sunset took place in the far west of Cornwall. Before the sun set in the evening, intermittent rain had turned steadily heavier as a cold front, with embedded hefty showers, approached from the west. As darkness started to fall, the rain clouds suddenly cleared away to the east-north-east, and the sunset lit the distant horizon in a flame of crimson, yellow and pink.

What made the sunset particularly noteworthy was the presence of a particular type of very eerie-looking cloud — mammatus — which formed like a ghostly shield right above my head as the rain clouds cleared.

Mammatus clouds form when violent convective currents within a shower can no longer sustain their upward motion and start to sink back down towards the base of the cloud. When these downdraughts reach the cloud base, a vast canopy of “sagging pouches” then develop on the underbelly of the cloud in a peculiar rippling effect. These clouds can be seen at their most dramatic along “Tornado Alley” in the United States.

On Sunday night, with the sun low on the distant horizon, the setting sun brightly illuminated the bottoms of the sagging clouds, while the tops remained far more sinister with only dark greys and blacks filling in the void.

Link to Weather Eye source