Weather Eye

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From The Times September 16, 2008

Seasonal forecast for autumn is below-average rainfall

Paul Simons Weather Eye

The outlook for much of Britain this week is extraordinary, by the standards set this year. It will be settled and dry with the promise of some sunshine. This is a relief especially for farmers who are trying to harvest cereal crops and who are about to lift the maincrop potatoes.

The fine weather gives a chance to take stock of how bad the weather has been so far this year. It was the wettest January to August period on record in Britain, just eclipsing 2007, according to the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (CEH), at Wallingford, Oxfordshire. No region has escaped the drenching, but the North East of England and eastern Scotland have fared the worst. Many rivers have been flowing at their greatest volume on record, several places are seeing their highest groundwater levels and many reservoirs are brimming with water at their maximum capacities.

This is unusual, since water stocks shrink during the summer as evaporation outstrips rainfall. Water usually seeps underground to recharge subterranean aquifers only from late autumn to early spring.

After a wet summer last year, a second summer of rains “has made for a very healthy water resources outlook,” says the CEH report, although it adds a note of caution. “Entering the autumn, many river catchments are very vulnerable to further rainfall – with a high short-term risk of more flooding and the prospect of an extended 2008-09 flood season.”

So, any further spells of heavy rains could set off widespread flooding. Fortunately the Met Office seasonal forecast for autumn is for below-average rainfall and possibly a drier winter than last year.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/weat...icle4761250.ece

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From The Times September 17, 2008

Ryder Cup interrupted by remains of Hurricane Ike

Paul Simons Weather Eye

Preparations for the Ryder Cup golf tournament were interrupted on Sunday when the remains of Hurricane Ike battered the course at Valhalla, Kentucky. Winds blowing at more than 110km/h (70mph) brought down a television tower. Trees and tents were ripped up and power cuts were widespread in the area.

Although hurricanes run out of steam rapidly once they hit land, their remains cause havoc. Far inland from Ike’s devastating impact on the coast of Texas, northern parts of the state were swamped with up to 500mm (20in) of rain. As the storm swept through the Midwest it carried on pouring: up to 200mm of rain set off floods from Oklahoma to Michigan. The storm also spun off tornados. More people were reported killed by the storm outside Texas — mostly from flooding — than by the hurricane’s initial impact on the coast. Record rainfalls and flooding did enormous damage to harvests of maize and soybean in Illinois, which had been suffering drought.

By the time Ike hit the Ryder Cup course it had lost its tropical storm identity. A hurricane needs warm waters to feed its huge energy demands, with a vortex of winds rushing around a calm central eye. Once over land, that warm water fuel supply is cut off, the eye of the storm collapses and the mass of swirling, hot, humid air becomes more disorganised.

The tropical remains of Ike were absorbed by a cold weather front and it was revitalised by a clash of warm and cold air masses, driven on strong winds high above. It remained a dangerous beast, and by the time it reached Canada was still pouring with devastating rainfalls.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/weat...icle4768318.ece

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From The Times September 18, 2008

First signs of spring appear over Antarctica

Paul Simons Weather Eye

The first signs of spring are appearing over Antarctica. As the sun returns after months of darkness an alarming annual phenomenon is reappearing — the ozone in the stratosphere is thinning out to form a giant hole. This year the ozone hole appeared quite late but it has grown rapidly in recent weeks, and is already larger than last year’s. It will reach its maximum size between late September and early October before it fills again in mid-December.

The ozone layer shields the Earth’s surface from the worst of the Sun’s ultraviolet rays. Without its protection, dangerous levels of ultraviolet radiation cause sunburn, cataracts and skin cancer in human beings and huge damage to wildlife and vegetation.

During the winter, pollutants such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) are swept up in the stratosphere to form vast whirlpools over the Antarctic. At extremely cold temperatures these chemicals destroy the ozone. Although CFCs are being phased out under the 1987 Montreal Protocol, they linger in the atmosphere for many years, and experts caution that the ozone layer may not fully recover for another 70 years.

Because the ozone layer and the Antarctic are so remote it is difficult to comprehend the damage being done to the atmosphere. Scientists working on Antarctica can see the telltale signs of the ozone hole in strange clouds in the stratosphere, with beautiful colours similar to mother-of-pearl. The temperatures in the clouds are around minus 86C (-123F), and so cold that the tiny ice crystals in them provide the surfaces for the CFCs to attack the ozone layer.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/weat...icle4775444.ece

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From The Times September 19, 2008

Time to pick out the Pleiades cluster

Paul Simons Weather Eye

For anyone unsure about identifying the stars in the night sky, tonight offers a golden opportunity to pick out the Pleiades cluster. The Pleiades are some of the brightest although tonight they will lie close to the Moon, which will hide some of the stars in the small hours. In the winter the Pleiades become prominent in the northern hemisphere, as Alfred Tennyson wrote in Locksley Hall:

“Many a night I saw the Pleiads, rising thro’ the mellow shade,

Glitter like a swarm of fireflies tangled in a silver braid.”

The Pleiades have a history in folklore weather forecasting. Mountain farmers in the Andes of Peru and Bolivia watch out for the Pleiades on June 24 to forecast rain for the potato growing season. If the stars are bright, the rain will be good and the potatoes are planted in October. But if the stars look dim, the rain will be poor and planting is delayed until December.

Long-range meteorological forecasts using computer models are difficult and experimental. But the Pleiades folklore is accurate up to 75 per cent of the time and there is scientific reasoning to it. The stars lose their brightness when they are veiled by wispy, high cirrus clouds. When cirrus clouds appear in June they often herald the start of an El Niño, when tropical seas of the Pacific become warmer. El Niño knocks storm tracks off course and diverts rain from the Andes, leaving the highlands in drought during the October-May growing season. For centuries farmers have watched the Pleiades to plan their crops.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/weat...icle4782061.ece

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From The Times September 20, 2008

Witley, near Godalming, Surrey catches fire

Paul Simons Weather Eye

An extraordinary incident took place in Witley, near Godalming, Surrey, on August 31. It was a very dull morning when Bill Brooks looked out of the window of his flat. He was astonished to see a huge red ball hanging in the air. “It was a perfect circular ball, the length of a London bus, unbelievably vivid, like a ball of fire, but with no flames, no edges to it, and it didn’t move,” he said. Soon afterwards there was a blinding flash, and a huge crack of thunder shook the building so hard that pictures fell off the walls.

Two large fir trees in the garden were badly damaged, one ripped from the top to almost halfway down, and the other had a hole punched right through it.

Gary Brown, who was working in the garden, was also struck and an eyewitness told The Surrey Advertiser how the intense flash had enveloped him “like a fluorescent light bulb, shimmering all over”, before he collapsed. Mr Brown was taken to hospital and although he appeared to have suffered no immediate ill-effects, he has since suffered severe headaches and amnesia.

The flash of light was clearly some sort of electrical phenomenon, judging by the widespread damage to computers, televisions and security systems in neighbouring flats in the building. And although there was no sign of rain or other lightning, the sound of distant rumbling thunder was heard shortly afterwards.

The phenomenon may have been an exceptionally violent form of ball lightning, a rare and mysterious form of lightning sometimes spawned from powerful thunderstorms. It often appears as a much smaller sphere of glowing light gliding horizontally, but in extreme cases has been known to set buildings ablaze.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/weat...icle4790763.ece

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From The Times September 22, 2008

The autumn equinox heralds longer nights

Paul Simons Weather Eye

It is the autumn equinox, and after today the nights grow longer. Daylight at the equinox is slightly longer than the night, partly because the Earth’s atmosphere bends sunlight hidden just under the horizon. At the poles the equinox marks the transition from 24 hours of night to 24 hours of daylight. And at the equator, the equinox marks the moment when the Sun is directly overhead.

Since ancient times the equinox was thought to influence the weather. The first Roman invasion of England by Julius Caesar in 55BC was hit by storms in late summer, leaving him short of seaworthy ships and exposed to the risk of being stranded in England for the winter without provisions. In his account of the Gallic wars he wrote: “Since the time of the equinox was near, he did not consider that, with his ships out of repair, the voyage ought to be deferred till winter.” But there is nothing special about the equinox, it is just that storms are more frequent in the autumn.

Another piece of folklore comes with St Matthew’s Day, September 21, a key date for forecasting the coming months: “Matthew’s Day, bright and clear, brings good wine in next year.”

And according to The Unique Bedside Book of Weather Lore (1950): “A quiet week before the autumn equinox and after, the temperature will continue higher than usual into the winter.” In fact, the weather on September 20, 21, and 22 is supposed to dictate the weather for the rest of autumn. Given the great weather at the moment, the prospects for the rest of the year look good.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/weat...icle4799024.ece

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From The Times September 23, 2008

High pressure now controls UK’s weather

Paul Simons Weather Eye

At long last something that feels like a late summer has arrived, and what a wonderful feeling to see blue skies and enjoy warm sunshine again. High pressure is now firmly in control of the UK’s weather, but even though it may feel like summer during the day, there is a definite autumnal nip in the air at night. Clear night skies have allowed the ground to cool down considerably, resulting in dew on the grass and, in many places, widespread frosts as temperatures have dipped to freezing.

A glorious sight to watch out for in the early morning sunshine is grass covered in sparkling dew.

The Sun has to be low in the sky for maximum glitter effect, created by thousands of tiny reflections of the Sun projected by the dew drops. But sometimes you can also see a rainbow-coloured streak across the dewy ground. This is a dew bow, and it is fairly rare because the dew drops need to be spherical, and most dew drops tend to be half-spheres. However, a good place to look out for the spectacle is on spiders’ webs, because the spider’s gossamer is so fine that it helps to make the dew stand out as a rounder droplet. Early-morning rays of sunshine can catch these drops and light up with the colours of the rainbow in much the same way that raindrops make a rainbow.

The mystery is why spiders’ webs do not create more dew bows. There are usually lots of webs at this time of year, and many spiders also launch threads of gossamer into the breeze to sail off to find new homes. If the silk touches the ground, the spider relaunches itself, leaving behind silky threads.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/weat...icle4805198.ece

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From The Times September 24, 2008

The Long Island Express

Paul Simons Weather Eye

A hurricane striking New York sounds like a disaster movie. But 70 years ago a hurricane tore through Long Island, New York and New England as a Category 3 storm. It killed almost 700 people, destroyed or damaged more than 57,000 homes and caused more than $6 billion of damage in today’s money.

As the storm skirted around the West Indies, it built up power before swinging northwards at about 70mph, earning it the nickname “The Long Island Express”. Usually a hurricane heading north would run out of fuel as the waters grow cooler. But the seas were unusually warm and the hurricane moved so fast that it retained its power. Forecasters believed that it would swing out to sea and no warnings were given. But the hurricane hit New England and eventually Canada. It also struck close to a particularly high tide and propelled a storm surge so violent that hundreds of holiday homes were washed out to sea and the coastline was redrawn. If such a storm struck today it could leave an estimated $50 billion of damage.

The storm was not unique. In 1821 the eye of a hurricane launched a 4m (13ft) storm surge into New York Harbour and flooded Lower Manhattan. Today New York remains vulnerable to hurricanes and even a minor event could put Lower Manhattan under water, knocking out the subway, road tunnels, power, telecommunications and put millions of lives at risk. And as sea levels rise and seas grow warmer, the threat that New York faces from hurricanes and storm surges grows worse. London is also at risk of flooding from storm surges.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/weat...icle4813228.ece

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From The Times September 25, 2008

How does dew become dew?

Paul Simons Weather Eye

The air doth drizzle dew,” wrote Shakespeare in Romeo and Juliet, a sentiment that highlighted a long-lasting mystery: where did dew come from? It almost seemed like magic that water droplets could be conjured up out of thin air. After all how did a baking hot desert during the day become soaked with dew during the night without any sign of clouds or rain?

By the end of the 18th century, arguments raged over how dew formed. On one side it was thought that dew seeped out of the ground at night, while others believed that it fell surreptitiously from the air. But neither side could explain why dew tended not to form under trees, or on cloudy nights.

The mystery was solved in 1814 by William Wells, an American doctor living in London. He found that at night the ground loses heat into the air. “I laid a thermometer on dewy grass, and suspended a second in the air, two feet above the other,” he reported. “An hour afterwards, the thermometer on the grass was found to be 8 degrees lower, by Fahrenheit’s division, than the one in the air.” Eventually the ground cooled to a point when invisible water vapour in the air condensed into dew drops on the cold surface of the ground.

Wells showed that dark substances collected more dew than pale ones, and that “windless and serene nights” favoured dew formation, as the air remained in contact with cooled objects long enough to deposit moisture.

Unfortunately Dr Wells’s experiments on cold nights took a toll on his wellbeing – “my health had long been feeble” – and he died three years later.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/weat...icle4821041.ece

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From The Time September 26, 2008

UFOs or autumn spiders?

Paul Simons Weather Eye

Flying saucers became a huge interest after the Second World War. On this day 60 years ago a mass of UFOs seemed to swarm over Port Hope, Ontario. “These objects came sailing into view over the ridge of the house, only to disappear when nearly overhead,” reported P. L. Lewis. “With field glasses I was able to see that each was approximately spherical, the centre being rather brighter than the edges.” He estimated that the mystery objects were about a foot across and flying at about 50mph.

But there was a clue to the origins of the flying saucers. “Also visible every now and then were long threads . . . Some of these were seen to reflect the light over a length of three or four yards.” Mr Lewis guessed that these may have been spiders’ threads, “but the way in which they caught the rays of the sun and shone so brightly was very striking.”

The English naturalist Gilbert White described something similar on September 21, 1741. He saw a fall of cobwebs that formed “perfect flakes or rags” and were “twinkling like stars” as they fell in the sunlight, but he understood their real significance. “Strange and superstitious as were the notions about gossamers formerly, nobody in these days doubts that they are the real production of small spiders, which swarm in the fields in fine weather in autumn, and have a power of shooting out webs from their tails, so as to render themselves buoyant and lighter than the air.”

When large numbers of spiders balloon en masse the effect can be quite dramatic.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/weat...icle4827755.ece

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From The Times September 27, 2008

A late apology for summer

Paul Simons Weather Eye

Today most of Britain will enjoy some balmy temperatures, gentle breezes and, best of all, lots of sunshine. It may be a late apology for summer. Make the most of it because the strong anticyclone that brought this decent spell of weather is being shoved south by westerly depressions off the Atlantic, again. The outlook for next week is unsettled, with wind, showers and feeling cooler. But then this is autumn after all and September is known for sudden and shocking changes in weather.

September 1919 began in spectacular style with a heatwave that soared on September 11 to 32.2C (89.6F), the hottest day of that year. “Keats described the autumn as ‘the sweet foster-child of the declining sun’ but this year that foster-parent has shown himself uncommonly vigorous,” The Times reported. “Public swimming baths are doing much business and the alfresco luncheon habit in parks has broken out afresh.” Men were seen unbuttoning jackets and waistcoats and ladies wore summer dresses.

But the following day temperatures took a tumble, and by the 19th it was so bitterly cold that snow fell in Scotland. By the following day snow was sweeping down over much of England, even as far south as Dartmoor, where it was 5cm (2in) deep. Elsewhere a widespread frost and iced-over ponds added to the wintery landscape and badly affected the harvest, ruining vegetables such as beans and marrows. Shivering, sneezing and general ill-health rapidly followed.

The cause of this shocking change in weather was a switch from warm air dragged up from North Africa to a sudden eruption of cold air coming down from the Arctic.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/weat...icle4834109.ece

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From The Times September 29, 2008

Happy Michaelmas Day!

Paul Simons Weather Eye

Today is Michaelmas Day, one of the old four Quarter Days in England and Wales when rents were due and bills had to be paid. It was also a tradition on this day to eat roast goose, apparently thanks to Elizabeth I.

On Michaelmas Day 1588 the Queen was staying with Sir Neville Umfreyville on her way to Tilbury Fort, dining on goose, when a messenger brought news that much of the Spanish Armada had been wrecked in Blasket Sound on the southwest coast of Ireland. “Death to that accursed Armada of the Spaniards!” cried the Queen. “Henceforth shall a goose commemorate this famous victory!”

The Armada had set sail earlier that summer to invade England. But as they arrived in the English Channel they were battered by gales and chased by the English navy. They took shelter at Calais, but when Drake launched fireships ablaze with gunpowder, the Armada fled in disarray into the North Sea and abandoned the invasion plan. With the English blocking any southern escape route, the Spanish had to run for home by sailing around Scotland. But as they turned into the Atlantic, they faced the full brunt of some violent storms.

“On the morning of the 21st it began to blow with most terrible fury,” described one Spanish chronicle. “There sprang up so great a storm on our beam with a sea up the heavens so that the cables could not hold nor the sails serve us and we were driven ashore.”

Many of the ships were battered and wrecked along the west coast of Scotland and Ireland, and the rest barely made it back to Spain. It was a huge defeat, much of it thanks to the elements, and celebrated afterwards with roast goose.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/weat...icle4842309.ece

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From The Times September 30, 2008

Confusing weather in Canada

Paul Simons Weather Eye

Autumn weather is baffling — do you dress for summer or wrap up warm for winter? This weekend temperatures topped 20C (68F) in glorious sunshine and it was difficult to believe that this was late September. But today everything is changing as a depression moves in and lashes Britain with rain and cold winds from the Arctic.

The weather is even more confusing in Canada, where Hurricane Kyle struck Nova Scotia and New Brunswick yesterday. Though hurricanes rarely vent their full fury on Canada, the eastern region can suffer tropical storms as they sweep up from the south. The storms usually exhaust their energy in the cooler northern waters, but they can still unleash huge amounts of rain and violent winds.

The most destructive tropical storm in Canadian history was Hurricane Hazel in October 1954. It carved a devastating path through the Caribbean, North Carolina and northwards towards the Great Lakes. Because the storm sped rapidly overland it managed to keep its hurricane strength. Canadian weather forecasters underestimated the storm when it struck on the night of October 15. It tore through the heart of Toronto with 124km/h (77mph) winds and about 210mm (8.27in) of rain, washing away entire streets in wild, rushing waters. Houses were ripped from their foundations, 20 bridges were destroyed and 81 people were killed. The damage cost about $1 billion in today’s money.

Toronto is now a far larger city and a similar storm today would be catastrophic. But as a result of Hazel, parts of Toronto’s floodplain were turned over to parkland to help to control future floods.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/weat...icle4848487.ece

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From The Times October 1, 2008

Emblem of bathtime helps Nasa

Paul Simons Weather Eye

They have a permanent grin and the Queen apparently has them at the Palace. Plastic yellow toy ducks are the quintessential emblem of bathtime, but they are also helping to investigate a melting glacier in Greenland. Nasa is trying to find out how water moves in the melting Jakobshavn Glacier, one of the world’s fastest-moving glaciers. The glacier sheds almost 7 per cent of Greenland’s ice and probably spawned the iceberg that sank the Titanic in 1912.

As the glacier melts in the summer, water pools on the top of the ice and then gushes down deep tunnels in the glacier called moulins, but where that meltwater ends up is a mystery. Scientists have tried dropping sensors with satellite tracking devices down the holes, but they got lost. So instead they plopped 90 toy ducks down the moulins, and hope they will emerge in Baffin Bay, between Canada and Greenland. Anyone who finds them is urged to contact Nasa and collect a reward.

The toy ducks may help to prove a theory that moulins drain water from the top of a glacier down to its underside. There the water may lubricate the glacier as it moves towards the coast, like a ship sliding down a slipway. But because the draining water is hidden from view, no one really knows what happens.

This is not the first time that toy ducks have come to the aid of science. In 1992 an armada of 29,000 plastic bath toys, including ducks, was shed from a container ship in the Pacific. Over the following years they appeared up to 9,000 miles away in the North Atlantic and helped to reveal ocean currents.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/weat...icle4855942.ece

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From The Times October 1, 2008

Storm brewing and heading for UK

Paul Simons Weather Eye

October used to be the time to graze pigs on fallen acorns and beech mast blown down by the wind, as summed up by this piece of folklore:

“A good October and a good blast, To blow the hog acorn and mast.”

October is a month notorious for wild winds, and it got off to a very breezy start yesterday with gusts, showers and a definite chill in the air.

And the outlook is none too good either. Way out in the Atlantic an interesting tropical storm called Laura has been brewing, and it is heading for the UK this weekend. Laura started off the coast of Canada as a sub-tropical cyclone, but as it passed over warm waters it gained strength and became a tropical storm. It is about to turn and speed towards Britain, and although it will lose its tropical character and weaken as it passes over colder waters, its huge mass of humid, warm air will become absorbed and beef up a more conventional Atlantic depression. This will pack hefty downpours of rain and winds over the weekend.

Unfortunately the remnants of Laura will hang around and bring about an unsettled picture of weather through much of next week, with possibly stronger gales and rains to come.

In fact there has been a trend for wet Octobers in recent years. But rainfall at this time probably always has been fickle, as another saying goes:

“Dry your barley in October, Or you’ll always be sober.”

This suggested that farmers had to use any spell of dry weather before rains spoilt the fruits of their harvest.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/weat...icle4863821.ece

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From The Times October 3, 2008

Phoenix reports chilly weather on Mars

Paul Simons Weather Eye

The forecast today is for temperatures dropping to about minus 80C (-112F) and snowfall that will vaporise before it reaches the ground. Mind you, this is the weather in the northern polar region of Mars, where Nasa’s Phoenix lander is beaming back data from its onboard weather station. Apart from gathering information on wind, temperature and pressure, an instrument called Lidar has beamed up a laser ray and detected snow falling from wispy clouds about 4km (2.5 miles) above the spacecraft’s landing site.

Phoenix also includes a robotic arm that digs up soil samples and a portable laboratory to test the soil. This equipment already has discovered a layer of frozen water under the ground surface. It also found evidence of calcium carbonate, the stuff of chalk, as well as particles that could be clay. Most carbonates and clays on Earth form only in the presence of liquid water, which could have existed on Mars billions of years ago. Today, however, liquid water cannot exist on the surface of Mars because its atmospheric pressure is too low.

Mars is a hostile place, though. Its atmosphere is mostly carbon dioxide, and 100 times thinner than that of Earth. It is also very dry – perhaps the nearest thing on Earth is the cold, dry valleys of Antarctica. But the presence of frozen water raises the intriguing possibility of one day colonising the planet using its icy resources.

Phoenix has been an astounding success, but it is now slowly dying. As the north pole of Mars begins its long, dark, frigid winter, the solar panels that power the spacecraft are running out of energy and by the end of October will largely shut down.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/weat...icle4870507.ece

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From The TimesOctober 4, 2008

A gloomy October is bad for our health

Paul Simons Weather Eye

It looks as if October is about to become a lot gloomier, with unsettled conditions lasting for another week and possibly longer. Following on from the dullest August on record in Britain, there are concerns about the effects of the lack of sunshine on our health.

Ultraviolet rays in sunlight convert a type of cholesterol in the skin to vitamin D. Much of the vitamin is made in the summer and becomes depleted through the winter. But there is a growing problem with a lack of vitamin D across the British population, particularly children, pregnant women, the elderly, dark-skinned people and anyone who covers up their skin.

We have been here before. In the 1800s, lack of vitamin D caused rickets, widespread in smog-ridden cities. “A perennial pall of smoke . . . cut off from narrow streets a large proportion of the rays which struggle through the gloom,” wrote the British scientist Theobald Palm. He realised how the lack of sunlight explained why the poorest children were most likely to have rickets and he recommended sunbathing to prevent the problem.

Rickets was largely eradicated in industrialised countries in the 1920s, using ultraviolet light to irradiate foods such as milk. These days the coal smoke has gone and there is a lot more sunshine but the problem is that most of us spend too much time indoors. And this summer’s appalling gloom made the situation even worse.

The effects of a healthy supply of vitamin D are astonishing. Not only is it involved in making healthy bones, but it may protect against several types of cancer, multiple sclerosis and diabetes, and boosts the immune system.

Vitamin D can be found in oily fish, liver, egg yolk and fortified margarine.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/weat...icle4878271.ece

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From Times Online October 6, 2008

Noisy oceans threaten life under water

Paul Simons Weather Eye

The world’s oceans are growing noisier, thanks to the rising levels of carbon dioxide. This could create a cacophony of sounds that will make life difficult for whales and dolphins, which use their shrills and rumbles for navigation and communication and, rather like a room full of people shouting at each other, their calls could get lost in an underwater din.

It seems unbelievable that carbon dioxide would make a difference to anything on Earth because it only makes up about 0.04 per cent of the atmosphere. But when air dissolves in water, the carbon dioxide makes carbonic acid. Although a very weak acid, it slowly eats away chalk and limestone, which is how Cheddar Gorge and its caves were made.

As carbon dioxide dissolves in the oceans it is turning the water more acidic. This has an impact on sound travelling through the water, because sound waves are absorbed by certain types of charged molecules that stick together in seawater. As the sea becomes acidic, the charged molecules absorb less sound, and so the sound waves travel further.

A recent study has found that carbon dioxide absorbed by the oceans has increased sound travel by about 10 per cent throughout the Atlantic and Pacific. And by mid-century this is expected to rise up to 70 per cent further. With noise travelling further, this could create an underwater din that will make life much more difficult for whales and fish that live on reefs that also use sound.

The increasingly acid oceans are also hurting sea creatures such as diatoms and corals. Their shells are made of carbonate that is corroded by carbonic acid.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/weat...icle4887375.ece

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From The Times October 7, 2008

Man has hair-raising escape

Paul Simons Weather Eye

A man filling up his truck with petrol at a garage in New York state had a hair-raising escape last week when he was struck by lightning. The lightning bolt struck the garage forecourt and floored William Hall, who was left unconscious on the ground.

“I started pumping the gas, and I saw a very bright orange light, followed by a very bright white light, and then total darkness; I went out,” said Mr Hall. Apart from sore muscles and blisters on his elbow, he appeared to have escaped significant injuries. Even more surprisingly, the petrol station did not blow up.

Handling metal during thunderstorms is highly risky, as golfers are frequently reminded. Even small pieces of metal can become dangerous. In an unusual case this July, a woman in New Hampshire was struck by lightning through the metal ring in her nose. And three years ago a teenager in a park in London was seriously injured during stormy weather when lightning struck her through the mobile phone she was using. Similar incidents have happened elsewhere in the world.

Even staying indoors during a thunderstorm is no guarantee of safety. In another incident this July, a man in Virginia was talking on his landline phone when lightning hit the outside phone cable and struck him through the phone receiver. He suffered burns to his face and arm from where he was holding the phone to his ear.

Lightning strikes often pass over the human body thanks to the insulating properties of skin. But doctors explain that metal objects in direct contact with the skin can disrupt this flashover, causing a far greater risk of serious injury.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/weat...icle4894888.ece

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From The Times October 8, 2008

Nasa spots asteroid before annihilation

Paul Simons Weather Eye

In the early hours of yesterday morning a fireball exploded with the equivalent of a thousand tonnes of TNT over northern Sudan. The light was so intense that it lit up the sky like a full moon and an airliner 1,400km (870 miles) away reported seeing the bright flash.

The explosion was caused by an asteroid the size of a boulder roughly three metres (10ft) across. It sounds catastrophic, but the rock was totally annihilated as it smashed into the atmosphere, and there was no chance of it hitting the ground. In fact, asteroids this size hit the Earth’s atmosphere every few months or so. But this particular event was special because the asteroid was spotted before it blew up, the first time this has been achieved. The asteroid was seen by astronomers on Sunday at an observatory in Arizona, as part of a Nasa project to scan for approaching space rocks.

There are 5,681 such near-Earth objects, but only 757 of them are considered large enough to cause any damage if they hit Earth. If a dangerously large object were spotted in time the hope is to give enough warning to evacuate any people living in the likely crash zone, although the logistics involved would be mind-boggling.

However, it would be difficult to escape a 300m space rock. These strike every 60,000 years or so, and could trigger a monster-sized tsunami if they hit the sea. And an asteroid measuring more than a kilometre in diameter strikes Earth roughly every few hundred thousand years. This would obliterate everything in and around the impact zone and send the world’s climate into such turmoil that civilisation as we know it would collapse.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/weat...icle4902427.ece

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From The Times October 9, 2008

October is a turning point

Paul Simons Weather Eye

What a relief to bask in mild weather again after a wild and chilly start to the month. Just as central heating was being cranked up, temperatures have nudged towards 20C (68F) this week. And that was despite the thick clouds and heavy rain lashing the country on Monday, although the clouds helped to trap much of the warmth.

October is something of a turning point in the year. The sunshine is now too weak for a heatwave, and mild weather is imported on breezes from a southerly direction. October can also be unsettled, and it has been both notably warm and very wet in recent years: 2001, 2005 and 2006. Of these, 2001 stands out as the warmest October on record, yet dull and gloomy with rainfall way above normal.

Just like this month, October 2001 blew in with gales, rains and flashfloods, with thunderstorms and hail thrown in. On October 6, a tornado blasted through the Norfolk Broads, sending pieces of holiday homes flying, and bringing down electricity poles and telephone lines. A week later, temperatures climbed to 25C (77F) at Herne Bay in Kent. Thundery weather returned on October 17, and in Chippenham, Wiltshire, a “ball of fire” was reported after a lightning strike, slowly gliding downwards before disappearing, a probable case of ball lightning. A week later, a tornado struck Westbury, Wiltshire, ripping up roofs and turning over cars.

Flooding hit the Midlands, North Wales and East Anglia over October 20-21, and an earthquake struck near Melton Mowbray, Leicestershire, on the 28th, sending chimneys tumbling. But the month ended warm once again.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/weat...icle4909602.ece

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From The Times October 10, 2008

The zodiacal light of the false dawn

Paul Simons Weather Eye

This is the time of year to look out for a beautiful, misty light in the night sky before dawn, when a faint pyramid-shaped glow appears on the eastern horizon. To see the spectacle it needs to be a really dark location away from streetlights, and the sky has to be clear. The sight is especially good this week as the Moon is not bright enough to interfere with it.

It is sometimes called a “false dawn” because it looks as if the Sun is about to rise. But this is the zodiacal light, created by sunlight scattered off clouds of cosmic dust floating in the solar system, rather like the way dust particles sparkle in a beam of sunlight. The cosmic cloud comes from tiny bits of asteroids and comets, and probably originates from the early days of our solar system.

The zodiacal light is still poorly understood but there is growing interest in it because similar zodiacal clouds have been discovered around other stars. The phenomenon got a public relations boost last year when Brian May, the Queen guitarist, was awarded his PhD for his thesis on the phenomenon. After a gap of more than 30 years, he dusted down his research and submitted his thesis. “We’re interested in zodiacal dust because, presumably, the dust has a lot to say about the way planetary systems evolved,” May explained. “I thoroughly enjoyed my years playing guitar and recording with Queen, but it’s extremely gratifying to see the publication of my thesis.” A Survey of Radial Velocities in the Zodiacal Dust Cloud is co-published by Springer and Canopus Publishing, but does not make light reading

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?a...f=54&t=2671

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From The Times October 11, 2008

Autumn starts to reach across Britain

Paul Simons Weather Eye

A fine, sunny autumnal weekend is on the cards for much of the UK, as high pressure pushes in from Europe and blocks out depressions from the Atlantic. These are ideal conditions to bring on the change in leaf colours now underway across the country.

Shorter days, weaker sunshine and cooler temperatures are a signal to leaves to start breaking down their green chlorophyll. After this, yellow, orange, red and brown pigments — normally hidden from view — appear. The yellows and oranges come from carotenoid pigments which are present in carrots and buttercups; tannins give the brown tones, and are best known for giving tea its colour.

The most dramatic, blushing red leaf displays need a particular sort of weather: a run of warm, sunny days and cool, crisp but not freezing nights, around 5C (41F). These specific conditions cause the spectacular autumnal colours of New England’s trees. During a weather spell of this kind, the leaves produce lots of sugars, but the cool temperatures at night prevent the sugars from draining away. Bright sunlight then cooks the leaf sugars into brilliant red anthocyanin pigments, which give strawberries, tomatoes and other fruits their colours. In contrast, a run of mild, gloomy, wet weather tends to produce a drab display of insipid yellows, pale oranges and muddy browns.

So dramatic is the change in leaf colours that they can be seen from satellites as a wave travelling roughly from north to south through Western Europe at some 65km (40 miles) a day. In a few weeks the chlorophyll is totally destroyed and the leaves fall.

For a guide on where to see the best autumn colours across Britain, see forestry.gov.uk/autumn

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/weat...icle4924157.ece

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From The Times October 13, 2008

Artificial fertilisers are an important invention of the 20th century

Paul Simons Weather Eye

What was the most important invention of the 20th century? Electronic computers, television, penicillin or a process for turning air into nitrogen fertiliser? Today is the 100th anniversary of a patent for making cheap, artificial fertilisers, without which probably half of the world’s population would not be able to exist today.

During the early 1900s, the world population threatened to outgrow food supplies. Fertilisers were needed to boost crop yields, but the supplies of natural fertilisers were rapidly running out. Nitrogen held promise as a supply of fertiliser because it makes up most of the air we breathe, and plants need it for their growth, but it is inert. In 1908 the German chemist Fritz Haber turned nitrogen from the air into ammonia fertiliser, for which he was later awarded a Nobel Prize. Carl Bosch later turned that chemical reaction into an industrial process that produced huge amounts of ammonia.

Today most of the world’s nitrogen fertilisers are made by the Haber-Bosch process, which uses lots of energy, making it expensive and polluting. And the world is now flooded with surplus nitrogen that is washed out of fields and pollutes water supplies.

The fertilisers give off nitrogen oxides in the air. When these chemicals reach the stratosphere they help to destroy the ozone layer. Closer to the ground, nitrogen oxides produce damaging ozone pollution. They are more than 300 times more potent than carbon dioxide at trapping heat — an often forgotten source of global warming.

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?a...f=54&t=2671

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From The Times October 14, 2008

Is it really October?

Paul Simons Weather Eye

During a weekend of warm sunshine and blue skies across much of Britain, temperatures peaked at 23C (73F) on Sunday. This was the hottest day for more than four weeks – hard to believe that it was mid-October.

The legacy of the cool, wet summer lives on. Much of the wheat harvest was of such poor quality that breadmakers are having to import grain supplies. Hop growers suffered a drop in quality having looked forward to a bumper harvest. Wet weather earlier in the summer had spurred on the crop, but the hops did not ripen well in the rains of August and early September. Home-grown honey is in short supply after rains in July and August prevented bees from foraging on flowers and left some colonies starving.

Even when supplies of food and drink were not a problem, the rains dampened consumers’ enthusiasm. Cider and beer sales took a severe knock, as they did last summer. The British addiction to shopping was hit as retailers reported a downturn. Unfortunately, the return of fine weather came as storm clouds darkened over the economy.

One ray of sunshine lit up this gloomy picture. Though the poor weather slashed the yields of English vineyards, it boosted their quality. The Camel Valley Vineyard in Cornwall reported yields of only a fifth of expectations but its grapes contained a high acidity, perfect for its sparkling wine, which is said to compare favourably with French champagne.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/weat...icle4938330.ece

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From The Times October 15, 2008

The keystone of weather forecasting

Paul Simons Weather Eye

The barometer is the keystone of weather forecasting, and its inventor, Evangelista Torricelli, was born 400 years ago today.

Torricelli was an Italian physicist, mathematician and pupil of Galileo. The invention of the barometer was inspired by a problem sent to Galileo – why is it so difficult to raise water using a suction pump higher than about 11 metres (33ft)? There was an idea that the weight of the atmosphere prevented it from rising higher, but trying to measure this in such a tall column of water proved too difficult.

In 1644 Torricelli hit on the idea of replacing water with mercury, which is 13 times denser than water, and so needed a much shorter glass tube. Torricelli used a tube with a closed bulbous end, filled it with mercury and then tipped it upside down in a basin also filled with mercury. The height of the mercury column reached a fairly steady level of about 76cm (30in). Torricelli realised that the mercury was forced up the tube by the weight of the atmosphere pressing down on the mercury in the basin. It was the first measure of atmospheric pressure.

But something strange also happened. Over the weeks, the column of mercury rose and fell with changes in the weather. It rose when conditions turned fine, and sank when wind and rain blew in. More intriguingly, these fluctuations seemed to begin before the weather changed. Falling mercury signalled low pressure and bad weather on the way, and rising mercury signalled high pressure bringing clearer conditions. And so the barometer became the first instrument for scientific weather forecasting.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/weat...icle4944716.ece

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From The Times October 16, 2008

Does 'unnatural' weather herald financial turmoil?

Paul Simons Weather Eye

Did “unnatural” weather herald last week’s financial turmoil? By coincidence, 21 years ago the stock market crash of Black Monday was preceded by the great storm that devastated southern England, with millions of trees torn down and 19 people killed.

In October 1929 severe gales battered the UK for four days before that stock market crash. And as the Great Depression of the 1930s took grip, the American Midwest suffered the Dust Bowl, when rains virtually disappeared for eight years and winds swept up huge clouds of dust. Towns were engulfed in it, crops withered, livestock collapsed and thousands of people died. Billions of tonnes of soil were blown away over a vast area. In one storm in May 1934, a dust cloud stretched from Alberta to Texas, even smothering ships at sea 480km (300 miles) off the East Coast. And not only were the summers intensely hot and dry, but the winters were some of the coldest on record.

The dust was a man-made disaster created by farmers ploughing up prairies and exposing fragile soils. But the drought itself was a climate phenomenon. Today western states in the US have suffered several years of drought. Although it is not a dust bowl, the climate is putting enormous demands on water supplies at a time of economic crisis. That is leading to growing strains between farmers and the big cities such as Los Angeles and Las Vegas, all desperate for water.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/weat...icle4951503.ece

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From The Times October 17, 2008

Look to earthworms for advice on flooding

Paul Simons Weather Eye

Charles Darwin loved earthworms and wrote a book dedicated to them in which he described one of his most eccentric experiments. He put worms in his billiard room and blasted them with a choice of a bassoon, piano, whistle or simply shouting at them. Fortunately his home was isolated enough not to disturb any neighbours. His conclusion: “Worms do not possess any sense of hearing.” But he discovered that strong vibrations upset them. “When the pots containing two worms which had remained quite indifferent to the sound of the piano were placed on the instrument, and the note C in the bass clef was struck, both instantly retreated into their burrows,” he wrote.

Earthworms are sensitive to low-frequency vibrations. These drive some types of earthworms to the surface, and in the southeastern US is used in a practice known as “worm grunting”, by scraping a piece of metal on a wooden stake in the ground. Within a minute or so, the vibrations bring the earthworms up to the surface where they are easily caught. This week, American scientists report in the Royal Society’s Biological Letters journal that worm grunting produces similar sort of vibrations to rain hitting the ground. So the vibrations of falling rain may warn the worms to flee their burrows before they get waterlogged.

Some worms seem to take flood precautions even farther. There is intriguing evidence that our common earthworm, Lumbricus terrestris, builds its own flood barriers, by plugging leaves into the entrance of its burrows to stop rain getting in, or topping the burrows with little tumuli of stones.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/weat...icle4958724.ece