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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    I have opened this thread in order to compare ensemble temperature profiles so that we can see at what range is there a small enougth agreement for us to be able to develop a reasonable temperature expectation.

    As Thundery Wintry Showers has shown with his GFS12z model comparisons, while the GFS has ussually picked out the positioning of a area of low or high pressure at 144 hours out, it often struggles with the pressure value of the area of low or high pressure. One of the things which we will find out from this thread is what the impact of the pressure value on temperature is.

    I will start at the 5th May as that is when the temperature profiles diverge according to the GFS12z ensembles.

    5th May - 7C to 9C - 2C scatter

    6th May - 4C to 8C - 4C scatter

    7th May - 0C to 8C - 8C scatter

    8th May - -1C to 5C - 6C scatter

    9th May - 0C to 6C - 6C scatter

    10th May - 2C to 8C - 6C scatter

    11th May - 1C to 8C - 7C scatter

    12th May - 2C to 10C - 8C scatter

    13th May - 4C to 8C - 4C scatter

    14th May - 2C to 11C - 9C scatter

    15th May - 3C to 14C - 11C scatter

    16th May - 0C to 11C - 11C scatter

    17th May - 0C to 10C - 10C scatter

    As you can see from that, there is reasonable agreement on temperature profiles for the next eight days however after that, scatter increases dramatically.

    In regards to the 13th May, there is a 4C agreement, while i expect agreement to lessen over the next few days, i believe that the final value will be between 4C and 8C.

    I will try update tommorow.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Here is my GFS6z ensemble analysis...

    10th May - 0C - 5C - 5C scatter - increased agreement - 2C - 5C likely

    11th May - 2C - 6C - 4C scatter - increased agreement - 2C - 6C likley

    12th May - 4C - 10C - 6C scatter - increased agreement - 4C - 10C likley

    13th May - 4C - 11C - 7C scatter - decreased agreement - 4C - 8C likley

    14th May - 3C - 12C - 9C scatter - same agreement - 3C - 11C likely

    15th May - -2C - 12C - 14C scatter - decreased agreement - 3C - 12C likely

    16th May - -2C - 12C - 14C scatter - decreased agreement - 0C - 11C likley

    17th May - -4C - 12C - 16C scatter - decreased agreement - 0C - 10C likely

    18th May - -2C - 10C - 12C scatter

    19th May - 2C - 13C - 11C scatter

    20th May - 1C - 10C - 9C scatter

    21st May - 0C - 14C - 14C scatter

    In conclusion, there is horrible agreement after the 14th May due to one rogue run increasing ensemble scatter.

    I have illustrated the ensembles to show the most likely outcome.

    post-1806-1146838454.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Here is my GFS0z ensemble analysis...

    10th May - 2C - 8C - 5C scatter - decreased agreement - 2C - 5C likely

    11th May - 2C - 7C - 5C scatter - decreased agreement - 2C - 6C likley

    12th May - 3C - 8C - 5C scatter - increased agreement - 4C - 8C likley

    13th May - 4C - 12C - 8C scatter - decreased agreement - 4C - 8C likley

    14th May - 4C - 9C - 5C scatter - increased agreement - 4C - 9C likely

    15th May - 3C - 10C - 7C scatter - increased agreement - 3C - 10C likely

    16th May - -3C - 11C - 14C scatter - same agreement - 0C - 11C likley

    17th May - -3C - 12C - 15C scatter - increased agreement - 0C - 10C likely

    18th May - 0C - 9C - 9C scatter - increased agreement - 0C - 9C likely

    19th May - 0C - 9C - 9C scatter - increased agreement - 2C - 9C likely

    20th May - 2C - 10C - 8C scatter - increased agreement - 2C - 10C likely

    21st May - 2C - 11C - 9C scatter - increased agreement - 2C - 11C likely

    22nd May - 1C - 11C - 10C scatter

    In conclusion, there is fairly good agreement throughout the run aside from the 16th and 17th May, which is causing problems for the models.

    I have illustrated the ensembles to show the most likely outcome.

    post-1806-1146916292.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Here is my GFS6z ensemble analysis...

    10th May - 2C - 0C scatter - increased agreement - 2C likely

    11th May - 2C - 5C - 3C scatter - increased agreement - 2C - 5C likley

    12th May - 5C - 11C - 6C scatter - decreased agreement - 5C - 8C likley

    13th May - 7C - 12C - 5C scatter - increased agreement - 7C - 8C likley

    14th May - 6C - 14C - 8C scatter - decreased agreement - 6C - 9C likely

    15th May - 4C - 14C - 10C scatter - decreased agreement - 4C - 10C likely

    16th May - 3C - 10C - 7C scatter - increased agreement - 3C - 10C likley

    17th May - -1C - 10C - 11C scatter - increased agreement - 0C - 10C likely

    18th May - 0C - 11C - 11C scatter - decreased agreement - 0C - 9C likely

    19th May - -1C - 9C - 10C scatter - increased agreement - 2C - 9C likely

    20th May - 2C - 7C - 5C scatter - increased agreement - 2C - 7C likely

    21st May - -2C - 8C - 10C scatter - decreased agreement - 2C - 8C likely

    22nd May - -2C - 12C - 14C scatter - decreased agreement - 1C - 11C likely

    In conclusion, there is average agreement on this run however agreement has increased around the 15th May, which is causing problems for the models, the outlook looks above average. This run has picked out the 20th as a potential average spell with good agreement.

    I have illustrated the ensembles to show the most likely outcome.

    post-1806-1146929075_thumb.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Here is my GFS6z ensemble analysis...

    11th May - 7C - 0C scatter - increased agreement - 7C likley

    12th May - 8C - 0C scatter - increased agreement - 8C likley

    13th May - 8C - 10C - 2C scatter - increased agreement - 8C likley

    14th May - 4C - 8C - 4C scatter - increased agreement - 6C - 8C likely

    15th May - 5C - 8C - 3C scatter - increased agreement - 5C - 8C likely

    16th May - 5C - 11C - 6C scatter - increased agreement - 5C - 10C likley

    17th May - 6C - 10C - 4C scatter - increased agreement - 6C - 10C likely

    18th May - 3C - 10C - 7C scatter - increased agreement - 3C - 9C likely

    19th May - -1C - 9C - 10C scatter - same agreement - 2C - 9C likely

    20th May - -3C - 9C - 12C scatter - decreased agreement - 2C - 7C likely

    21st May - -1C - 9C - 10C scatter - same agreement - 2C - 8C likely

    22nd May - -3C - 7C - 10C scatter - increased agreement - 1C - 7C likely

    23rd May - -1C - 11C - 12C scatter

    24th May - 1C - 11C - 10C scatter

    25th May - 0C - 9C - 9C scatter

    In conclusion, there is good agreement on this run until the 19th May, temperatures look like they could become more average around the 20th.

    I have illustrated the ensembles to show the most likely outcome.

    post-1806-1147188215_thumb.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Here is my GFS12z ensemble analysis...

    22nd May - 5C - 0C scatter - increased agreement - 5C likely

    23rd May - 0C - -1C - 1C scatter - increased agreement - 0C - -1C likely

    24th May - 1C - 0C scatter - increased agreement - 1C likely

    25th May - 1C - 5C - 4C scatter - increased agreement - 1C - 5C likely

    26th May - 2C - 8C - 6C scatter

    27th May - -2C - 10C - 12C scatter

    28th May - -3C - 7C - 10C scatter

    29th May - -1C - 7C - 8C scatter

    30th May - -2C - 6C - 8C scatter

    31st May - -2C - 6C - 8C scatter

    1st June - 2C - 11C - 9C scatter

    2nd June - 3C - 10C - 7C scatter

    3rd June - 1C - 13C - 12C scatter

    4th June - 1C - 15C - 14C scatter

    5th June - 1C - 15C - 0C scatter

    6th June - 0C - 16C - 16C scatter

    In conclusion, decent agreement for the next ten days aside from this weekend with signs of more average temperatures next week with maximum temperatures close to 20C before the possibility of a heatwave arriving with June.

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