Summer 2006

[Terminal Moraine]

Your posts are always informative and consistently interesting, G.P.

The in-depth analysis is second to none and to top it all you have the humility to hold your hands up when you get it wrong.

It's people like you who help to make this the best weather site on the 'net.

In due course I look forward to reading your thoughts on the forthcoming winter.

In the meantime I will return to my chest freezer until the heat goes away.

T.M

[Bottesford]

Good read there GP and good to see a forecaster who can admit mistakes & see what went wrong. Have to say, I'm pleased you were wrong from a summer loving viewpoint & am pleased to see the 'extreme warmth' thoughts for August!

Can't say I fully understand it all but certainly grasping the idea!

[Dawlish]

Yep, super GP. The knowledge you display is terrific and I really enjoy reading your stuff.

It does show the difficulties and the lack of accuracy of these long-range forecasts. It is the same in the Met Office and at NOAA. There are some terrifically talented meteorologists and yet forecasting, accurately and consistently, the complexity of the atmospheric system still defeats the best minds and the most powerful computer generated numerical models.

Whatever is forecast, more than 3 weeks in advance, by whichever agency, or person, still has to be taken with an enormous pinch of salt - that goes for the NOAA winter teleconnections foredasts Damien, too! (Though again, thanks for keeping us up to date).

Paul

[johnholmes]

excellent post again GP and I hope some people note that it is possible to say I got it wrong and admit it.

John

[The PIT]

Thanks GP shows how hard it is to predict the weather.

Now you've gone for extreme warmth we can look forward to one of the coldest Augusts on record.

[West is Best]

GP - no absence of an Azores high my friend. The AZH is the building block of this wonderful summer. The best part of it is that it's done the perfect thing, and occasionally slid north to hold a great block to our south-west with it also occasional ridging to our south, and across our south (the WIB high ). But it's slap bang over the Azores at this very moment in all its massive glory. ...!

Just to help, I've drawn an arrow to show where the Azores are, and you'll see from this that this year's Azores high is particularly strong and covering a huge area with the Azores right underneath it. So I'll be grateful when you correct that part of your post!

[Bottesford]

GP - no absence of an Azores high my friend. The AZH is the building block of this wonderful summer. The best part of it is that it's done the perfect thing, and occasionally slid north to hold a great block to our south-west with it also occasional ridging to our south, and across our south (the WIB high ). But it's slap bang over the Azores at this very moment in all its massive glory. ...!

Just to help, I've drawn an arrow to show where the Azores are, and you'll see from this that this year's Azores high is particularly strong and covering a huge area with the Azores right underneath it. So I'll be grateful when you correct that part of your post!

But it's been the Scandi high bringing all this heat & sunshine this past week or so hasn't it? The Azores high, strong as it is, seems to have kept out to the south west occasionally throwing displaced ridges accross the south of the UK. The Scandi high seems to be the one to watch I'd thought - or am I wrong?

[Dawlish]

The Azores High is almost omni-present and during Summer in particular you will struggle to find an archive chart where it is not in a similar position and at similar strength than it is now.

But it hasn't been the dominant feature thus far, and it is the building of the heat over Europe together with associated High pressure which has brought the hot temperatures to our shores.

I'd agree, Ian.

The Scandinavian High looks like it will become a dominant feature - indeed it is there at the moment - in that it may well stop the invasion of the Atlantic, but up to press, in my eyes, it has been neither the Scandinavian High, nor the Azores High, which has provided the source of early summer heat. Instead, it has been mainly heat moving from North Africa and sitting over (especially) Western Europe, before continuing to migrate Northwards to us, to the Baltic and onwards.

Paul

Edited July 5, 2006 by Dawlish

[Glacier Point]

More arrows for West....

Check out those negative anomalies for June MSLP in the area of the Azores, and the positive pressure and temp. anomalies for the NW Atlantic and Europe. A strong Azores ridging into the UK would not deliver such an anomaly pattern.

The chart you've chosen to illustrate what a strong Azores High looks like is also putting the upper trough over the UK delivering the less settled conditions expected over the second half of the weekend and much fresher weather over the next few days.

[kold weather]

Yeah there is a clear link between the large anomalies that we are having and the strength of the Scandinavian high. Also its quite funny to see West claim that his almighty high is strong when infact the data proves that West is in fact incorrect about his ideas and that the high is ever so slightly weaker then normal.

Still if the Scandi high remians the King Pin then we could be looking at a very warm summer overall, it may well be able to match overall the summer of 1995, though I don't think it'll be as warm as August was and probably not as warm as July the fact that June was so above average does give us a good headstart on 1995 so if we can get another heatwave before the end of July (I think its very possible...) then it'll all come down to whether we can get a warm-very warm August.or not but if we can get a strong Scandi high then maybe we've got a chance, just maybe....

[summer blizzard]

Glacier Point, is the rather cool August due to your teleconnection expectations coming together, or has there being a major pattern change away from both your forecast.

[Glacier Point]

Glacier Point, is the rather cool August due to your teleconnection expectations coming together, or has there being a major pattern change away from both your forecast.

We'll have to wait until August's data is in before commenting definitively, however the -ve AO and NAO are certainly delivering the conditions I had envisaged (wrongly) throughout the Summer.

Whether this was as a result of the second strongest +ve AO recorded in the last half century during June into July or the result of an underlying predisposition for west European ridge (I suspect a combination of the two) we will have to wait until late September for the verdict.

GP

[summer blizzard]

Glacier Point, will you be releasing an Autumn forecast???

[Glacier Point]

Glacier Point, will you be releasing an Autumn forecast???

No. As a transitional phase, Autumn is a difficult call and a period best watched in terms of the winter forecast, not least the SSTA.

[summer blizzard]

Glacier Point, is the August data avaialable for evaluation???

[SNOW-MAN2006]

rubbish rubbish and rubbish