Tropical Depression 8-e

[summer blizzard]

000

WTPZ43 KNHC 010849

TCDEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082006

200 AM PDT TUE AUG 01 2006

SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO

BE SHEARED...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE

DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS ADJUSTED NORTH OF THE

PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...MICROWAVE

IMAGERY AND A 0100 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS. GIVEN THIS ADJUSTMENT...THE

INITIAL MOTION IS SET AT A RATHER UNCERTAIN 305/7. DVORAK INTENSITY

ESTIMATES AT 0600 UTC WERE 30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...THEREFORE THE

INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS QUICKLY LOSE WHATEVER REPRESENTATION OF

THE DEPRESSION THEY HAVE. REGARDLESS...THE GUIDANCE SUITE SUGGESTS

THAT THE DEPRESSION SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG

THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE CENTERED ALONG

25N. THE GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A BREAK IN THE RIDGE AS AN UPPER

TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST LATE IN THE WEEK.

AS A RESULT...MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE TURNS THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE

NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...AND THE

NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IN THE INITIAL LOCATION THE TRACK FORECAST HAS

BEEN ADJUSTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS

TRACK...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE PERIOD. THIS FORECAST ASSUMES THE

CYCLONE WILL REMAIN A DEEP SYSTEM AND FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THE

TROUGH. IF THE CYCLONE IS WEAKER THAN FORECASTED...A TRACK MORE

TOWARD THE WEST IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE PERIOD.

THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY RELAXED

EASTERLY SHEAR AFTER 24 HOURS...PROVIDING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR

INTENSIFICATION BEFORE THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO A LESS FAVORABLE

ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY DRIER AIR AND COOLER SSTS AFTER 72

HOURS. THIS TREND IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH

REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/0900Z 13.6N 104.6W 30 KT

12HR VT 01/1800Z 14.3N 105.6W 35 KT

24HR VT 02/0600Z 15.0N 106.8W 40 KT

36HR VT 02/1800Z 15.5N 108.3W 45 KT

48HR VT 03/0600Z 15.9N 109.8W 50 KT

72HR VT 04/0600Z 16.8N 113.2W 50 KT

96HR VT 05/0600Z 18.0N 117.0W 45 KT

120HR VT 06/0600Z 21.0N 119.5W 40 KT

$$

FORECASTER BRENNAN/STEWART

[Polar Bear]

000

WTPZ43 KNHC 010849

TCDEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082006

200 AM PDT TUE AUG 01 2006

SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO

BE SHEARED...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE

DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS ADJUSTED NORTH OF THE

PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...MICROWAVE

IMAGERY AND A 0100 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS. GIVEN THIS ADJUSTMENT...THE

INITIAL MOTION IS SET AT A RATHER UNCERTAIN 305/7. DVORAK INTENSITY

ESTIMATES AT 0600 UTC WERE 30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...THEREFORE THE

INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS QUICKLY LOSE WHATEVER REPRESENTATION OF

THE DEPRESSION THEY HAVE. REGARDLESS...THE GUIDANCE SUITE SUGGESTS

THAT THE DEPRESSION SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG

THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE CENTERED ALONG

25N. THE GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A BREAK IN THE RIDGE AS AN UPPER

TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST LATE IN THE WEEK.

AS A RESULT...MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE TURNS THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE

NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...AND THE

NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IN THE INITIAL LOCATION THE TRACK FORECAST HAS

BEEN ADJUSTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS

TRACK...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE PERIOD. THIS FORECAST ASSUMES THE

CYCLONE WILL REMAIN A DEEP SYSTEM AND FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THE

TROUGH. IF THE CYCLONE IS WEAKER THAN FORECASTED...A TRACK MORE

TOWARD THE WEST IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE PERIOD.

THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY RELAXED

EASTERLY SHEAR AFTER 24 HOURS...PROVIDING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR

INTENSIFICATION BEFORE THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO A LESS FAVORABLE

ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY DRIER AIR AND COOLER SSTS AFTER 72

HOURS. THIS TREND IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH

REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/0900Z 13.6N 104.6W 30 KT

12HR VT 01/1800Z 14.3N 105.6W 35 KT

24HR VT 02/0600Z 15.0N 106.8W 40 KT

36HR VT 02/1800Z 15.5N 108.3W 45 KT

48HR VT 03/0600Z 15.9N 109.8W 50 KT

72HR VT 04/0600Z 16.8N 113.2W 50 KT

96HR VT 05/0600Z 18.0N 117.0W 45 KT

120HR VT 06/0600Z 21.0N 119.5W 40 KT

$$

FORECASTER BRENNAN/STEWART

Hi summer blizzard..

which Ts is this one..is it to do with Chris? http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane...getype=position

,..differnt positions so I assume not

[Typhoon Hunter]

Hi summer blizzard..

which Ts is this one..is it to do with Chris? http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane...getype=position

,..differnt positions so I assume not

08E is a Tropical Depression in the Northeast Pacific and has nothing to do with Chris in the Atlantic. There are currently 2 systems in the NE Pacific, one in NW Pacific and one in the Atlantic.

[Polar Bear]

08E is a Tropical Depression in the Northeast Pacific and has nothing to do with Chris in the Atlantic. There are currently 2 systems in the NE Pacific, one in NW Pacific and one in the Atlantic.

Hi typhoon hunter....yeah I recently sussed this one out..apologies for the confusion. Web page wasnt refreshing so I could catch a glimpse of the thread already open for Chris.thanks though for the info.