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Tropical Depression 8-e


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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    000

    WTPZ43 KNHC 010849

    TCDEP3

    TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2

    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082006

    200 AM PDT TUE AUG 01 2006

    SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO

    BE SHEARED...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE

    DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS ADJUSTED NORTH OF THE

    PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...MICROWAVE

    IMAGERY AND A 0100 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS. GIVEN THIS ADJUSTMENT...THE

    INITIAL MOTION IS SET AT A RATHER UNCERTAIN 305/7. DVORAK INTENSITY

    ESTIMATES AT 0600 UTC WERE 30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...THEREFORE THE

    INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

    MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS QUICKLY LOSE WHATEVER REPRESENTATION OF

    THE DEPRESSION THEY HAVE. REGARDLESS...THE GUIDANCE SUITE SUGGESTS

    THAT THE DEPRESSION SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG

    THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE CENTERED ALONG

    25N. THE GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A BREAK IN THE RIDGE AS AN UPPER

    TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST LATE IN THE WEEK.

    AS A RESULT...MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE TURNS THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE

    NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...AND THE

    NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IN THE INITIAL LOCATION THE TRACK FORECAST HAS

    BEEN ADJUSTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS

    TRACK...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE PERIOD. THIS FORECAST ASSUMES THE

    CYCLONE WILL REMAIN A DEEP SYSTEM AND FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THE

    TROUGH. IF THE CYCLONE IS WEAKER THAN FORECASTED...A TRACK MORE

    TOWARD THE WEST IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE PERIOD.

    THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY RELAXED

    EASTERLY SHEAR AFTER 24 HOURS...PROVIDING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR

    INTENSIFICATION BEFORE THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO A LESS FAVORABLE

    ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY DRIER AIR AND COOLER SSTS AFTER 72

    HOURS. THIS TREND IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH

    REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 01/0900Z 13.6N 104.6W 30 KT

    12HR VT 01/1800Z 14.3N 105.6W 35 KT

    24HR VT 02/0600Z 15.0N 106.8W 40 KT

    36HR VT 02/1800Z 15.5N 108.3W 45 KT

    48HR VT 03/0600Z 15.9N 109.8W 50 KT

    72HR VT 04/0600Z 16.8N 113.2W 50 KT

    96HR VT 05/0600Z 18.0N 117.0W 45 KT

    120HR VT 06/0600Z 21.0N 119.5W 40 KT

    $$

    FORECASTER BRENNAN/STEWART

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    Posted
  • Location: Newbury
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and snow but not together
  • Location: Newbury
    000

    WTPZ43 KNHC 010849

    TCDEP3

    TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2

    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082006

    200 AM PDT TUE AUG 01 2006

    SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO

    BE SHEARED...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE

    DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS ADJUSTED NORTH OF THE

    PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...MICROWAVE

    IMAGERY AND A 0100 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS. GIVEN THIS ADJUSTMENT...THE

    INITIAL MOTION IS SET AT A RATHER UNCERTAIN 305/7. DVORAK INTENSITY

    ESTIMATES AT 0600 UTC WERE 30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...THEREFORE THE

    INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

    MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS QUICKLY LOSE WHATEVER REPRESENTATION OF

    THE DEPRESSION THEY HAVE. REGARDLESS...THE GUIDANCE SUITE SUGGESTS

    THAT THE DEPRESSION SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG

    THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE CENTERED ALONG

    25N. THE GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A BREAK IN THE RIDGE AS AN UPPER

    TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST LATE IN THE WEEK.

    AS A RESULT...MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE TURNS THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE

    NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...AND THE

    NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IN THE INITIAL LOCATION THE TRACK FORECAST HAS

    BEEN ADJUSTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS

    TRACK...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE PERIOD. THIS FORECAST ASSUMES THE

    CYCLONE WILL REMAIN A DEEP SYSTEM AND FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THE

    TROUGH. IF THE CYCLONE IS WEAKER THAN FORECASTED...A TRACK MORE

    TOWARD THE WEST IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE PERIOD.

    THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY RELAXED

    EASTERLY SHEAR AFTER 24 HOURS...PROVIDING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR

    INTENSIFICATION BEFORE THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO A LESS FAVORABLE

    ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY DRIER AIR AND COOLER SSTS AFTER 72

    HOURS. THIS TREND IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH

    REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 01/0900Z 13.6N 104.6W 30 KT

    12HR VT 01/1800Z 14.3N 105.6W 35 KT

    24HR VT 02/0600Z 15.0N 106.8W 40 KT

    36HR VT 02/1800Z 15.5N 108.3W 45 KT

    48HR VT 03/0600Z 15.9N 109.8W 50 KT

    72HR VT 04/0600Z 16.8N 113.2W 50 KT

    96HR VT 05/0600Z 18.0N 117.0W 45 KT

    120HR VT 06/0600Z 21.0N 119.5W 40 KT

    $$

    FORECASTER BRENNAN/STEWART

    Hi summer blizzard..

    which Ts is this one..is it to do with Chris? http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane...getype=position

    ,..differnt positions so I assume not

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    Hi summer blizzard..

    which Ts is this one..is it to do with Chris? http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane...getype=position

    ,..differnt positions so I assume not

    08E is a Tropical Depression in the Northeast Pacific and has nothing to do with Chris in the Atlantic. There are currently 2 systems in the NE Pacific, one in NW Pacific and one in the Atlantic.

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    Posted
  • Location: Newbury
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and snow but not together
  • Location: Newbury
    08E is a Tropical Depression in the Northeast Pacific and has nothing to do with Chris in the Atlantic. There are currently 2 systems in the NE Pacific, one in NW Pacific and one in the Atlantic.

    Hi typhoon hunter....yeah I recently sussed this one out..apologies for the confusion. Web page wasnt refreshing so I could catch a glimpse of the thread already open for Chris.thanks though for the info.

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