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Typhoon Xangsane potential intercept.


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Mods I hope you don't mind this in the general forum, the Hurricane Forum is very quiet and thought this might generate a bit more interest here!

Typhoon Xangsane has done the remarkable and bombed into a very very strong typhoon in the space of 12hrs. It's currrently making landfall on the east coast of the Phillipines with sustainded 1 min winds of 115kts (JTWC) and 10 min winds of 90kts. 12 hours ago the Phillipines were expecting a tropical storm to make landfall now they have to deal with a monster!

It's obviously far too late to get to the Phillipines, however Xangsane is currently forecast to re-strengthen in the South China Sea and head towards Vietnam. The latest JTWC track (very useful for intercepting storms) has Xangsane making landfall in central Vietnam with 115kt sustained winds. Therefore I'm going to try to intercept it.

However I have many hurdles to face....first of all the 18z (becomes available at 4.30am my time) update. If this still shows a similar picture I'll head to Shanghai airport and try and get on the first plane to Bangkok provided it's not full. Then I have to get an express visa for Vietnam (provided what the people on the phone in Thailand told me is correct!) Then I'll book my tickets to Vietnam and try and get into the best position!! This is of course assuming all the while the storm is still worth intercepting!

I'll post as many updates as I can here.

Here's the latest JTWC tracking chart:

warning8ln9.gif

And here's the latest sat image of Xangsane making landfall in Phillipines:

viswarning71vp0.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Watford
  • Location: Watford
Well Xangsane must be absolutely pummeling the Phillipines at the moment. JMA have winds at 85kts and JTWC have them at 125kts!! Track still has Xangsane heading towards Vietnam as a strong typhoon. Awaiting the 18z update with interest.

I'm not entirely sure what happened there. At 1200 GMT RSMC Tokyo took it down from 90kts to 85kts and increased the pressure from 940 to 960hPa, but the JTWC increased it from 115 to 125kts while it was moving overland. I haven't seen any Dvorak estimates which support this higher intensity.

Here is the update you were waiting to see, down to 75kts now:

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TY 0615 XANGSANE (0615)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 271800UTC 13.6N 122.7E GOOD

MOVE WNW 10KT

PRES 965HPA

MXWD 075KT

50KT 70NM

30KT 160NM

FORECAST

24HF 281800UTC 15.5N 118.3E 80NM 70%

MOVE WNW 11KT

PRES 970HPA

MXWD 070KT

48HF 291800UTC 16.1N 113.7E 150NM 70%

MOVE W 11KT

PRES 955HPA

MXWD 080KT

72HF 301800UTC 16.6N 110.4E 220NM 70%

MOVE W 08KT

PRES 950HPA

MXWD 080KT =

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That was odd Peter. JTWC still have Xangsane charging towards Manila with 120kts winds! It's 5.10am here and the latest update (18z) means chase still on. JTWC track Xangsane straight into my ideal target zone with 115kt gusting to 140kt winds. So I'll be heading to the airport in 25 minutes. Let's hope the flight to Bangkok isn't full.

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Posted
  • Location: Sunny Southsea
  • Location: Sunny Southsea

They don't seem overly excited in the Philippines:

Philippine Weather

You are here: Home > News > Philippine Weather

Issued at: 5:00 PM 27 September 2006

Valid beginning: 5:00 p.m. today until 5:00 p.m. tomorrow

Synopsis

At 2:00 p.m. today, Typhoon "MILENYO" was located based on radar, satellite and surface data at 80 kms east southeast of Legaspi City (12.8°N, 124.5°E). With maximum sustained winds of 130 kph near the center and gustiness of 160 kph. It is forecast to move west northwest at 13 kph towards Legaspi City.

Forecast

Eastern Visayas and Bicol Region will experience stormy weather. The rest of Visayas and the rest of Southern Luzon will have rains and gusty winds and the coastal waters along these areas will be moderate to rough. The rest of the country will experience cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms.

Light to moderate winds blowing from the southwest and west will prevail over Mindanao and coming from the northeast and northwest over the rest of Luzon. The coastal waters along these areas will be slight to moderate.

:)P

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I have made it to Bangkok and managed to escape the mayhem of the new airport...it is its first day of fully operating! I've managed to get my passport to the visa service, will be ready tomorrow at 4pm. And I've spent a small fortune on plane tickets to Hue in central Vietnam...I arrive on Saturday 0630z, should just arrive in time. A few more hurdles cleared!

Xangsane has just about crossed the Phillipines and is entering the South China Sea. JMA currently have winds at 65kts and JTWC at 105kts. Forecast to re-intensify in the SCS. Here's the latest JTWC chart, it show Da Nang (a bout 25 miles south of Hue) getting a direct hit:

warning12ql0.gif

More updates to come later!

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Posted
  • Location: Western Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Storm, anything loud and dramatic.
  • Location: Western Isle of Wight

This is really cool TH, keep it up mate :blink:

I hope you get in position OK, good luck.

Russ.

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Thanks Rusty, I'm just praying that my flight tomorrow from Hanoi to Hue isn't cancelled....from latest update I should be ok.

This time in 24hrs I'll be in Vietnam. From now on I'll be using JTWC updates since they are most useful for getting to the best place. The latest update is insane, as it stands now they reckon it'll have winds of 120kts gusting to 145kts just before landfall. This will devestate the region and I hope the Vietnamese government is doing all it can to protect the most vulnerable people (poor coastal dwellers.)

Here's the latest tracking chart from JTWC:

warning15ah6.gif

I'll post next update after the 06z comes out.

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Posted
  • Location: Shoeburyness, Essex - 6.2m asl
  • Location: Shoeburyness, Essex - 6.2m asl

Good luck, TH. Sounds like typhoon chasing over there is a whole lot more challenging than for those who go tornado or hurricane hunting in the US. B)

Look forward to hearing how you get on, and fingers crossed Xangsane doesn't cause too much devastation when it hits. Seems Hainan got lucky this time round.

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Hello!

Just checked the latest updates. Latest JTWC track has Xangsane peaking at 125kts before making landfall with winds of around 115kts. However I think JTWC track will be adjusted northward in the next update. They have not taken into account a northward jog which both the Taiwanese and JMA have. Consequently Taiwanese and JMA (85kts) are going for direct hit in Danang area. Current landfall times as as follows:

JTWC 6am local, CWB 8am local, JMA 1pm local. What is great at the moment is they all seems to be going for daylight landfall on Sunday, couldn't be better.

I've just read a report that Danang city may be evacuated, this could pose problems getting there and affect my wallet...may have to bribe my way through checkpoints!

Cheers,

James.

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Hi guys.

I'm in position!!! Got myself a 4th floor room in a sturdy, concrete constructed hotel in Hoi An (about 15.7 degrees north) with internet! The weather is pretty benign at the moment but judging by latest sat image there is serious mayhem to come. Here's latest pic from JTWC:

wp1806samsop3.jpg

There are many tourists here who have no clue of what is about to happen. However I just passed local high school and it's crammed with people who've been evacuated from the coast. JTWC going for landfall winds of 105kts. Will be able to update here as long as the power lasts!

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Posted
  • Location: Western Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Storm, anything loud and dramatic.
  • Location: Western Isle of Wight

Excellent well, done mate. I expect your Internet connection will last but a short while <_<

You are in for a tremendous experience. :)

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Posted
  • Location: Western Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Storm, anything loud and dramatic.
  • Location: Western Isle of Wight

Looks pretty bad on the news hope you are ok. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/5394626.stm

We had a waterspout today off Brighton b/w small potatoes i know.

Russ

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Posted
  • Location: Sunny Southsea
  • Location: Sunny Southsea

Great stuff, James, well done! I am curious, though, how you managed to bypass the mass evacuations. Bad news about Hoi An, too; levees breached, World Heritage site bashed to hell, people killed.

Stay safe...

:)P

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Thanks for the messages guys.

Hoi An seems to be ok, but I haven't seen the Old Town yet so that could be hit worse. Went up the road to Danang today and took some pics:

67884653.jpg

2

67884390.jpg

3

67884487.jpg

4

67884624.jpg

And finally, why you should never go out and film in extreme winds in area with poor infrastructure, the air is filled with this stuff:

67884579.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Sunny Southsea
  • Location: Sunny Southsea

In case you haven't seen it, James:

Central Vietnam clears debris after typhoon strikes

Mon 2 Oct 2006 5:04:34 BST

DANANG, Vietnam, Oct 2 (Reuters) - Disaster relief officials and residents on Monday cleared fallen trees and debris from the streets of a Vietnamese resort city a day after a typhoon hammered the central coast, killing at least six people.

A government report said hundreds of thousands of homes were destroyed or damaged by Typhoon Xangsane's high winds and rain in several central provinces and the resort of Danang, Vietnam's fourth largest city of about 1 million people.

The city began cleaning up on Sunday afternoon and some businesses were re-opening on Monday.

"We are reopen and business is back as usual," said a staff member at the Furama hotel resort.

A Reuters TV cameraman in Danang said a part of the airport terminal roof was torn off and city streets were strewn with trees, pieces of broken billboards and other debris. It was sunny in Danang, but the outskirts were flooded.

Vietnam Airlines said it was resuming service to the central region after suspending all flights on Sunday.

The National Flood and Storm Control Committee said that six people were killed and 192 injured in the typhoon, which swept westward across the South China Sea from the Philippines, where officials reported at least 76 storm-related deaths after it hit the archipelago last week.

On Sunday, Vietnamese officials said 10 were killed, but the reported drownings of four people in Nghe An province were later deemed to have happened before the typhoon struck.

Monday's government report said more than 5,000 houses were washed away, 166,000 damaged and 19 vessels sunk by Typhoon Xangsane, which means "elephant" in the Lao language. The storm weakened and moved westward across Laos and into Thailand.

Heavy rains from the typhoon in the Central Highlands coffee growing area triggered landslides in Kontum province on the border with Laos but did not hit robusta trees, officials said.

Danang and the nearby UNESCO-heritage town of Hoi An suffered most after the typhoon landed at about 9 a.m. (0200 GMT) on Sunday. There was no immediate estimate of damage costs.

A staff member of the Victoria Hoi An Beach Resort & Spa said by telephone that the hotel was likely to be closed for several days. Hoi An was scheduled to a host a meeting of Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum tourism ministers in two weeks' time. "Hoi An town has suffered big damage and is submerged in water," the hotel employee said.

In the days before the typhoon arrived, Vietnamese authorities evacuated hundreds of thousands of people in the region to safer areas and fishing vessels were called in. (Reporting by Nguyen Van Vinh and Nguyen Nhat Lam)

Courtesy Reuters.

:)P

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Posted
  • Location: Western Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Storm, anything loud and dramatic.
  • Location: Western Isle of Wight

Well done James brilliant pictures, glad you are OK. What a memorable experience, it'll be with you for a long time no doubt :D

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