Two new Pacific systems

[parmenides3]

JTWC has issued two new warnings.

The first:1.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18E WARNING NR 001

01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

---

WARNING POSITION:

261200Z --- NEAR 16.7N 103.9W

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 08 KTS

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM

POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

REPEAT POSIT: 16.7N 103.9W

---

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

270000Z --- 17.1N 105.5W

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS

---

24 HRS, VALID AT:

271200Z --- 17.1N 107.1W

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS

---

36 HRS, VALID AT:

280000Z --- 17.1N 108.5W

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS

---

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

48 HRS, VALID AT:

281200Z --- 17.1N 110.0W

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS

---

72 HRS, VALID AT:

291200Z --- 17.0N 112.5W

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS

This should get named shortly.

The second, TD WPTN21 is forming East of the Philippines and the prognosis for development is good ATM.

:)P

[parmenides3]

We now have TS Cimaron in the NW Pacific, East of manila and heading towards it. which is a decent system which should last a few days.

18E is very close to where Paul was a few days ago. it isn't especially strong at the moment, and may well fizzle out fairly rapidly.

:)P

[Somerset Squall]

18E is very close to where Paul was a few days ago. it isn't especially strong at the moment, and may well fizzle out fairly rapidly.

:lol: P

It's having real problems flaring up any convection, probably because it's travelling through dry air at the moment, which overrides the fact that it is in a low shear/warm ocean environment. If it can survive this, we should see some more strengthening in the near future.

Edited October 27, 2006 by Somerset Squall

[parmenides3]

Quick update; 18E isn't doing much, but 22W, Cimaron, has developed nicely. Current forecast put maximum sustained winds at 48-72 hours, 85 kts. The track is not due to make land, so I suppose we'll just have to enjoy the satellite images.

:)p

[Somerset Squall]

Quick update; 18E isn't doing much, but 22W, Cimaron, has developed nicely. Current forecast put maximum sustained winds at 48-72 hours, 85 kts. The track is not due to make land, so I suppose we'll just have to enjoy the satellite images.

p

Yup, 18E is now just a reminant low and redevelopment is not likely due to the dry and stable air ahead of it. Cimaron however is developing nicely as you said, due to hit the Philippines in 36hrs possibly as a cat 3 on the saffir simpson scale. After that is open to question.

[parmenides3]

Here is the warning graphic, showing the track of Cimaron: http://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/wp2206.gif

And a nice satellite image:

:)P

[Somerset Squall]

Cat 4 on the saffir simpson scale now. Check out the "NW pacific activity" thread where TH has posted a great satellite image of the storm. It certainly looks beautiful, shame it's so deadly though. The Philippines are in trouble.

[parmenides3]

Time to shift the action over to the other thread, then.

:)P

[Somerset Squall]

Another new East Pacific storm has formed, 19E, forecasted to strengthen in the short term then rapidly weaken later in the forecast period due to strong shear. This storm is expected to make tropical storm status- Rosa will be it's name.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192006

700 AM PST WED NOV 08 2006

THE VESSEL 4XGS LOCATED ABOUT 60 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE ESTIMATED

CENTER REPORTED 28 KT WINDS AT 1200 UTC...ALTHOUGH AN EARLIER

QUALITY CONTROL CHECK INDICATED THAT THE SHIP'S WINDS WERE RUNNING

A LITTLE HIGH. A QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS

OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM BUT THESE APPEAR TO BE

INFLATED DUE TO RAIN CONTAMINATION. NONETHELESS THERE HAS BEEN A

GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN OVER THE

PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 30

TO 35 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AND SOME

INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...IT

IS EXPECTED THAT THE SYSTEM WILL FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG

WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW JUST TO ITS NORTH...WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE

INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS CLOSE

TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND A LITTLE BELOW THE LATEST GFDL FORECAST.

HOWEVER...CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN SHEAR...THE SYSTEM

COULD WEAKEN SOONER THAN INDICATED IN THIS FORECAST.

THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN CENTER FIXES...BUT MY BEST ESTIMATE

OF THE INITIAL POSITION REQUIRES SOME RELOCATION TO THE NORTHEAST

OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. SOME ADDITIONAL RELOCATION MAY BE REQUIRED

WHEN MORE VISIBLE IMAGES BECOME AVAILABLE. FOR NOW...THE INITIAL

MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 325/6. THE FUTURE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS

HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG IT BECOMES. A BROAD TROUGH IS

PREDICTED TO DROP INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS

WOULD LIKELY TURN A VERTICALLY-COHERENT SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OR EVEN

NORTHEAST. THE GFDL HAS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH OF ITS PREVIOUS

FORECAST...BUT I BELIEVE ITS INTENSITY PREDICTION IS A LITTLE HIGH.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK ASSUMES THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE

SHEARED OFF IN THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD AND THEREFORE MOVE

LITTLE BY DAYS 3-5...IF IT SURVIVES THAT LONG.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/1500Z 13.6N 104.3W 30 KT

12HR VT 09/0000Z 14.3N 104.8W 40 KT

24HR VT 09/1200Z 15.3N 105.6W 45 KT

36HR VT 10/0000Z 15.9N 106.4W 45 KT

48HR VT 10/1200Z 16.2N 107.2W 45 KT

72HR VT 11/1200Z 16.5N 108.0W 40 KT

96HR VT 12/1200Z 16.5N 108.5W 30 KT

120HR VT 13/1200Z 16.5N 108.5W 25 KT

[Somerset Squall]

The storm has been upgraded to a tropical storm despite strong shear. Not expected to last much longer. However, look at this:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1000 AM PST THU NOV 9 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY

UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM ROSA...LOCATED ABOUT 240 MILES SOUTH OF

MANZANILLO MEXICO.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 775 MILES SOUTH-

SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS MOVING SLOWLY

NORTHWARD. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND

A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 1700 MILES

SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS SYSTEM IS

SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS

POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

$$

FORECASTER RHOME

The east pacific is really springing back to life, and late too!